Kaepernick total QBR

[MHSL82]

Passer Rating isn't great but QBR is a total joke as it just goes against common sense.

There is no doubt Kap has been playing well but can you seriously say you would take Kap's performance yesterday over Peyton's 400+ yard 7 TD 0 INT/Fumbles week 1 performance?

I know Pryor had that 93-yarder rushing TD and the INTs may have been inconsequential, but how can he go 10-19 (52.6), 88 yards (4.6 YPA), 0 passing TDs, 2 INTs, and get a 96.2 QBR when his team didn't score a point in the second half of a 21-18 game (it was 21-3 at one point). He had two sacks, short. He had 13 yards rushing on 8 carries, other than the 93 yarder (so I'm not missing a great rushing game overall).

Also, QBR supports a close game with no defense over a blowout efficient win and evaluates sacks in a suspect way.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

You know, I was rewatching some of the game last night, and it made me wonder about Kap's QBR score. He was just not *all* that effective well into the 2nd quarter, good but nothing close to perfect. He was 1 of his first 4 passing, the 1 being the short pass to an uncovered Miller that he took for 45 yards (where I thought QBR took this stuff into account), and the incompletions being some poor plays. He had a run on a 3rd & 6 for 5 yards, and a run on about 2nd & 8 for 4 yards.

After that his passing became a bit more efficient, but its not like he was dismantling the opposition. The two TD runs probably boost the score a good deal, but cannot fathom how he came closer to perfection than any other QB this year.....there have been Manning games that blew Kap's Sunday game away, and I would have to think Brees has some arguments as well.

QBR is obviously a stupid stat that seems primarily justified to promote the star QBs that play for the best teams. I know a lot of it is based on how various plays affect win probability, so if you win big it must rate some certain plays very highly. The QBs on better teams will always score higher, and apparently the quality of the opposition - if they're completely blown out - also raises a QBR score.

 

[bvanthielriceyoung]

Kaepernick and Wilson had just about the same quarterback rating of 117 and obviously their play was drastically different. There is going to be flaws in every rating system.

 

[MHSL82]

QBR is obviously a stupid stat that seems primarily justified to promote the star QBs that play for the best teams. I know a lot of it is based on how various plays affect win probability, so if you win big it must rate some certain plays very highly. The QBs on better teams will always score higher, and apparently the quality of the opposition - if they're completely blown out - also raises a QBR score.

I thought it was funny that when it came out, one of its points of support that it essentially met the eye test - those we thought were top were above others. Then, if you are going to conceal its formula, why make this "stat" at all? Just say who is the best and end it there.

It isn't legitimate. I said the same thing when Alex had the then 6th best game ever (in their period of collecting the stat). I say it again when our QB was there in the last two games. It's a made-up stat. Look st my post two posts above.

 

[AdelaideCrows83]

You know, I was rewatching some of the game last night, and it made me wonder about Kap's QBR score. He was just not *all* that effective well into the 2nd quarter, good but nothing close to perfect. He was 1 of his first 4 passing, the 1 being the short pass to an uncovered Miller that he took for 45 yards (where I thought QBR took this stuff into account), and the incompletions being some poor plays. He had a run on a 3rd & 6 for 5 yards, and a run on about 2nd & 8 for 4 yards.

After that his passing became a bit more efficient, but its not like he was dismantling the opposition. The two TD runs probably boost the score a good deal, but cannot fathom how he came closer to perfection than any other QB this year.....there have been Manning games that blew Kap's Sunday game away, and I would have to think Brees has some arguments as well.

QBR is obviously a stupid stat that seems primarily justified to promote the star QBs that play for the best teams. I know a lot of it is based on how various plays affect win probability, so if you win big it must rate some certain plays very highly. The QBs on better teams will always score higher, and apparently the quality of the opposition - if they're completely blown out - also raises a QBR score.

While Kap didn't complete every pass, he did lead the Niners to 4 TDs in the first 4 drives. At that point, the game was over with a 28-0 scoreline, meaning the plays which followed had almost no impact on the Niners' chance of winning the game. Basically, an incompletion on 1st and 2nd down is negated if the 3rd and 10 is converted, as it is all about how the QB affects the win probability of his team. A QB who leads his team to a TD on the opening drive has significantly increased the win probability, regardless of whether he completed every 3rd pass or every pass.

Kap was directly responsible for 3 of the first 4 TDs (2 rush, 1 pass) and he was directly responsible for all but one 3rd/4th down conversion (Gore converted a 4th and short on opening drive) in the 1st half. Kap, during the 4 TD drives, personally converted a 3rd and 9, 3rd and 5, 3rd and 1, 3rd and 9 and 3rd and 7. He failed on one 3rd down attempt, when he scrambled for 4 yards on a 3rd and 5 (Gore converted 4th down).
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Now, Why did Peyton get a QBR of 83.6 (which is still very good) in his game with 7 TDs?
Drive 1: Manning incomplete pass on 3rd and 3 = PUNT
Drive 2: Manning incomplete pass on 3rd and 4 = PUNT
Drive 3: Manning incomplete pass on 3rd and 4 = PUNT
This left the Broncs trailing 0-7 in the 2nd qtr before Manning put points on the board with a 1 play, 24 yard TD drive after a Ravens turnover. Whereas Kap vs Jags had established a 21-0 lead after his first 3 drives and converted multiple 3rd downs.
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Is QBR perfect? Of course not, but I don't think it's a meaningless number. It would be more meaningful if the formula was actually revealed.