Just Curious

[Burgh Sports Rule]

Fellow Pirates fans, I would like your thoughts.

First, let me say, that I am not ready to call Pedro Alvarez a bust.

I know that it can take a while for a power hitter to reach his potential in the majors.

However, I was wondering, if Pedro never finds it & he is indeed a bust?

How far back, does that put the Pirates rebuilding process (In Yrs) into a Contending, Championship level team & organization?

I was just curious for everyone's opinions on this.

Thanks,
Burgh.

 

[thecrow124]

A year, maybe two. You have to think, we are going to be trading for position players soon. The fact that Pedro is brutal at the plate and in the field would lead me to believe third base would be a spot we look to fill. If that were to actually be the case, problem solved. If we were to add elsewhere, the one of our homegrown players could fill in at third, we do have people that are actually talented enough to play a good defensive third base.

I am not just saying this because I don't like Pedro either. I don't think he will ever be that guy as a Pirate. But I am also of the opinion that him being a bust is not going to cripple us going forward. Every year it seems like there is a minor league hitting prospect that takes that next step. Two years ago it was Matte, last year it was Grossman, this year, other than Bell, I expect at least one other minor league hitting prospect to take that step. If I had to guess on just one guy I would go with Jarek Cunningham, I just think that he will finally become more selective at the plate.

A few others Alex Dickerson, Matt Curry, Alan Hansen, Brock Holt, Jordy Mercer, Drew Maggi, Gift Nope. That is seven others off the top of my head and I didn't even get into the international guys. Pedro being horrible might mean we don't win this year, but I don't see it having those long term affects.

 

[Darkstone42]

Because of the strength of our system in terms of outfielders and pitchers, I don't see it setting us back any more than one or two years. We have positions of depth from which to deal if it comes down to that.

However, Pedro figuring it out this year, in my opinion, makes us competitors immediately and contenders by as early as next year.

 

[Darkstone42]

A year, maybe two. You have to think, we are going to be trading for position players soon. The fact that Pedro is brutal at the plate and in the field would lead me to believe third base would be a spot we look to fill. If that were to actually be the case, problem solved. If we were to add elsewhere, the one of our homegrown players could fill in at third, we do have people that are actually talented enough to play a good defensive third base.

I am not just saying this because I don't like Pedro either. I don't think he will ever be that guy as a Pirate. But I am also of the opinion that him being a bust is not going to cripple us going forward. Every year it seems like there is a minor league hitting prospect that takes that next step. Two years ago it was Matte, last year it was Grossman, this year, other than Bell, I expect at least one other minor league hitting prospect to take that step. If I had to guess on just one guy I would go with Jarek Cunningham, I just think that he will finally become more selective at the plate.

A few others Alex Dickerson, Matt Curry, Alan Hansen, Brock Holt, Jordy Mercer, Drew Maggi, Gift Nope. That is seven others off the top of my head and I didn't even get into the international guys. Pedro being horrible might mean we don't win this year, but I don't see it having those long term affects.

Because of the strength of our system in terms of outfielders and pitchers, I don't see it setting us back any more than one or two years. We have positions of depth from which to deal if it comes down to that.

However, Pedro figuring it out this year, in my opinion, makes us competitors immediately and contenders by as early as next year.

Crow beat me to it.

I was going to mention Dickerson, too. He's the guy I have pegged as our big-step-forward guy this year.

 

[Darkstone42]

Also, here's a little extra reading on Pedro for those of you who are interested.

Kovacevic: Boom or bust time for Alvarez - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

 

[element1286]

Tough question, that is almost impossible to answer without hindsight.

At draft time, a likely upside would for Pedro was about 5 WAR a year, for about 6 years, so 30 WAR for the time he is under team control.

The Pirates won 72 games last year, they were probably a 75-80 win team if Pedro hit .275/.380/.500.

Same goes for this year, if Pedro is indeed a bust, and provides zero value this year, I'd add 5 wins to whatever the final sum is for this year.

I don't think one missed draft pick, albeit a high one, sets the organization back all that much, maybe a year. Just have to avoid a string of bad high round picks.

 

[Illinest]

I am ready to give up. I was not concerned until this spring when apparently he's still swinging through just about every pitch that he doesn't simply watch go by him for a strike.

Alvarez is a bust.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

So Illinest, to my question then. If you think Pedro is indeed a bust?

How far back do you think that this will set the Pirates in the rebuilding process, (Yrs)

in the teams efforts to become a Championship contending team & organization?

Thanks,

Burgh.

 

[Illinest]

Our rebuild has been going on for 20 and i dont see a championship in our future - so as far as im concerned thats like asking me to divide by zero.

We are already set back by infinity, so maybe infinity plus one?

Honestly dont think his failure is any more significant than the failure of any high draft pick. A better question would be - with tony sanchez also looking like a bust and no guarantee on cole or taillon - how would you evaluate our managements ability to recognize first round talent?
A. Mediocre.

 

[thecrow124]

Our rebuild has been going on for 20 and i dont see a championship in our future - so as far as im concerned thats like asking me to divide by zero.

We are already set back by infinity, so maybe infinity plus one?

Honestly dont think his failure is any more significant than the failure of any high draft pick. A better question would be - with tony sanchez also looking like a bust and no guarantee on cole or taillon - how would you evaluate our managements ability to recognize first round talent?
A. Mediocre.

Actually, they have done well with drafting the correct person, but the development of those players leaves a lot to be desired.
What seems funny to me is that I used to defend Pedro when everyone would point to his high K rate in the minors. Now that I am firmly on the other side of the argument, others are trying to defend him to me. I thought that by midseason his trade value would be nil, but the way he looks this spring, I would venture to guess that as of now he has no value.

 

[Illinest]

No. They didnt mis-develop mcc after all - even though there were tons of fans who accused the pirates of rushing him. Development has way too much to do with the player. Selecting talent is all on management. Developing talent is a partnership. Im arguing that (hindsight of course) a better decision maker wouldve recognized that pedro alvarez has a gaping hole in his swing and also recognized that pedro alvarez is the type of person who will do whatever the fuck he wants instead of playing winter ball like he was asked to.

Alvarez had the opportunity to work on it but he chose to do it his own way. If he fails then its not a developmental problem - its a failure to evaluate alvarez as a person and as a prospect.

 

[element1286]

No. They didnt mis-develop mcc after all - even though there were tons of fans who accused the pirates of rushing him. Development has way too much to do with the player. Selecting talent is all on management. Developing talent is a partnership. Im arguing that (hindsight of course) a better decision maker wouldve recognized that pedro alvarez has a gaping hole in his swing and also recognized that pedro alvarez is the type of person who will do whatever the fuck he wants instead of playing winter ball like he was asked to.

Alvarez had the opportunity to work on it but he chose to do it his own way. If he fails then its not a developmental problem - its a failure to evaluate alvarez as a person and as a prospect.

If we are going to say Pedro is unsuccessful because he is a "headcase" in so many words, I can't agree that the management team should have somehow known this beforehand. If that was the case, every (non-injury) failed prospect ever for every team was management's fault for not figuring out if a guy can put his tools into practice.

 

[Illinest]

Character evaluations are part of the job. That was part of the justification for taking Sanchez too.
And to clarify - no I don't think that anyone is going to be 100% successful in judging character issues so the failure to properly evaluate Alvarez means very little in seclusion. It's when you combine this failure with that failure and maybe two other failures that you start to get into trouble.

Cole is a great prospect - I'm very excited about him - but he wasn't even the best performing pitcher on his team. There's obviously something that Cole will need to work out.
Taillon likewise had a reputation for a relatively flat, hittable fastball. Will that get worked out?
Neither of them are slam dunk prospects. There is a scenario that could play out in which all four turn out to be busts. Then no matter how you slice it you're moving beyond 'unlucky' and into 'incompetent'.

And I should also say that when you consider how high we were picking in each of those drafts I think that 2 out of 4 is the minimum reasonable expectation. At least 2 of them need to be quality major leaguers. If 2 succeed then Neil has met my bare minimum standard.

 

[thecrow124]

No. They didnt mis-develop mcc after all - even though there were tons of fans who accused the pirates of rushing him. Development has way too much to do with the player. Selecting talent is all on management. Developing talent is a partnership. Im arguing that (hindsight of course) a better decision maker wouldve recognized that pedro alvarez has a gaping hole in his swing and also recognized that pedro alvarez is the type of person who will do whatever the fuck he wants instead of playing winter ball like he was asked to.

Alvarez had the opportunity to work on it but he chose to do it his own way. If he fails then its not a developmental problem - its a failure to evaluate alvarez as a person and as a prospect.

Let me preface this by saying I am not defending Pedro in any way, I still think he is going to be horrible for as long as he is with the Pirates. But with regards to his development, he was drafted as a power hitter with a good command of the strike zone. It was the management team that told him to take pitches so that he could see what each pitch looks like. I only ever wanted him to see one pitch, that being the one that looks good to him and that he could turn around. I could care less than to see my one peer producing baseball player working the count and getting walks to increase his analytical value, I want to see him find his pitch and destroy it. As it is the buy now has no clue how he is even supposed to swing a baseball bat, let alone hit a baseball.
Since you brought him up, let's look at McCutchen. He was going along just fine and then inexplicably last year the management team told him to add loft to his swing to hit for power. In the analytical world, not much changed, but in the real world, his BA went down and his K's went up. If it was just ana anomaly, then it will correct this year, if not, well I don't even want to think about that.
I guess what I am saying is that tinkering with pitchers is fine on occasion, but when you decide to tinker with hitters, you had best be sure you know exactly what you are doing and I am not sure this group has even the first clue.

 

[thecrow124]

Character evaluations are part of the job. That was part of the justification for taking Sanchez too.
And to clarify - no I don't think that anyone is going to be 100% successful in judging character issues so the failure to properly evaluate Alvarez means very little in seclusion. It's when you combine this failure with that failure and maybe two other failures that you start to get into trouble.

Cole is a great prospect - I'm very excited about him - but he wasn't even the best performing pitcher on his team. There's obviously something that Cole will need to work out.
Taillon likewise had a reputation for a relatively flat, hittable fastball. Will that get worked out?
Neither of them are slam dunk prospects. There is a scenario that could play out in which all four turn out to be busts. Then no matter how you slice it you're moving beyond 'unlucky' and into 'incompetent'.

And I should also say that when you consider how high we were picking in each of those drafts I think that 2 out of 4 is the minimum reasonable expectation. At least 2 of them need to be quality major leaguers. If 2 succeed then Neil has met my bare minimum standard.

Two out of four is unrealistic, and if that is your bare minimum, then it is also unfair.

 

[Illinest]

I am not being unrealistic at all.
Bust rate on top ten picks is pretty low. Some sources claim as low as 27%. Everyone has a different method so the values range a bit.
Each of the Pirates selections was actually a top 5 pick. Actually each of the last 6 has been in the top 5 overall.

Depends on how you define 'bust' of course but I think it's reasonable to expect some kind of a positive contribution from most of our recent first-rounders.
You're probably thinking about studies that show bust rates for all draft picks (which may be as low as 2 successes per draft) or even first round bust rates which can go as high as 60%.

But the top ten and especially the top 5 is a different story. When you draft in the top 5 there's a pretty reasonable expectation that you're going to get a contributor.

I think I'm being TOO fair when I say 2 out of 4 is enough. I should be demanding 3 out of 4.

 

[magnumo]

I'm in firm agreement with Illinest on this discussion.

My conclusions:

- The evidence is mounting rapidly that Alvarez is a bust.

- It appears that Alvarez has some serious character issues which were missed by Pirates' management.

- The poor performance of Alvarez from the 2008 draft and Sanchez from the 2009 draft suggest at least the beginnings of a non-encouraging pattern.

- For the Pirates (or any other small-market team) to have a chance at competing, they must do a "better than average" job in the draft, especially with their high draft choices..... ESPECIALLY with first-round guys near the top of the draft. Doing "better than average" means a higher-than-normal percentage of those draft choices reaching the major leagues and contributing.

- On first-round choices: For reference, let's review DL's first-rounders. Obviously, Littlefield struck out with Bryan Bullington in 2002..... a pretty definitive bust. Here's a list of DL's subsequent first-round picks:
---2003 Paul Maholm
---2004 Neil Walker
---2005 Andrew McCutchen
---2006 Brad Lincoln
---2007 Daniel Moskos
Note that all five have reached the major leagues and made at least some contribution.

- Obviously, all Pirate fans hope that NH's first-round picks turn out better than DL's, but it's clearly too early to assume that with any degree of confidence. At any rate, I believe 3-out-of-4 for NH's first-rounders (reaching the majors and contributing at least as much as DL's 5-out-of-6) is an appropriate minimum-adequate expectation.

- I must acknowledge that most experts have given the Pirates' minor league system a significant bump in ranking under the Huntington regime. However, in my view, that improved ranking becomes credible and significant ONLY when the system begins to produce a steady stream of talent (specifically, talent drafted or acquired by NH) to the major league team. In this context, it seems fair to point out that the Pirate prospect creating the most buzz (i.e., Starling Marte) was signed by the Littlefield regime.

- On Burgh Sports Rule's question in the OP: The failure of Alvarez will set back the Pirates' timetable (if there is one) by a year or two at most. One guy, no matter who he is, doesn't make more difference than that in any rebuilding process. The timetable of any rebuilding process depends upon the entire body of work of the front office (along with the manager and coaches and the development staff)..... and ultimately, the performance of the 25-man roster.

- I remain unconvinced of the existence of a viable rebuilding process. So far, the PLAN is in place but the results are not. As I have posted elsewhere, I fully expect the team's W-L record to regress in 2012. I hope I'm dead wrong about that..... and that my assessment will be completely different next year.

 

[element1286]

What exactly is this "character flaw" we are so sure Pedro has?

 

[Darkstone42]

What exactly is this "character flaw" we are so sure Pedro has?

Bullheadedness seems to be the concensus choice. But I'm not sure that's entirely accurate, since he came to the organization with an aggressive approach, and then they told him to be more patient and draw more walks, which seems to be where this whole issue started.

So I guess you could say it was a lack of bullheadedness that got him into this situation in the first place.

I can't really point to work ethic, since even though he didn't go to winter ball, Pedro did come back in shape and with adjustments to try out. Just because said adjustments have been unsuccessful, though, does not mean he didn't give it a try.

I think Pedro just has a huge hole in his swing, all told, though.

 

[magnumo]

What exactly is this "character flaw" we are so sure Pedro has?

I CAN'T be sure..... and that's why I posted, "It appears that Alvarez has some serious character issues..." (underline added)

My perception comes from these points:

- Alvarez's refusal to play winter ball (the Pirates' clear preference). Alvarez chose to spend his time instead at Boras's compound in California. A player putting the advice and/or wishes of his agent ahead of the team strikes me as very misguided.

- I know you don't value Dejan much as a commentator..... but I take another clue from his coverage. Much of it is me reading between the lines..... but I get a strong sense that DK (who spends a good bit of time around the guy) questions Pedro's dedication and commitment to doing what he needs to do to be a successful major league player.

- Living some distance from Pittsburgh, I don't see Alvarez play often..... but when I have, his demeanor suggests complacency and confusion in equal measure. He looks like he doesn't have a clue with the bat..... and doesn't care much that he doesn't have a clue.

- Alvarez also seems to project a feeling of self-entitlement. One example: It was widely reported that he was upset about being sent down last year. Even though his performance was putrid, he thought he should have remained with the major league club. I've picked up other supporting signals elsewhere in the reporting about his struggles.

Taken together, these items suggest character issues..... or maybe "personality issues" would be more accurate. An additional speculation is that his natural skills were so good that he never had to work hard or adjust much in order to hit well. Perhaps working hard at hitting and adjusting just aren't part of his personal makeup.

At any rate, I fully admit that if Alvarez were to start hitting the ball, my negative perceptions likely would dissipate quickly. I hope that happens, but I'm becoming increasingly skeptical that it will. (And if he DOESN'T start hitting better, I've come around to the conclusion that he should start the season at AAA.)

A final note: It seems that consensus expectations for Alvarez have dropped significantly since he was drafted..... from a strong-hitting (.300+) middle-of-the-order major league basher, likely to hit 30-40 (or more) HR's and drive in 100+ each year..... to a kind of Adam-Dunn-light, i.e., low batting average and massive numbers of strikeouts but with fewer walks and only 20+ HR's. Even if Pedro reaches THAT kind of production, he'll still be a disappointment in my book..... and I won't believe THAT level until I see it.