John Clayton again

[Bemular]

Yeah, I don't think you can quantify just how bad the coaching was, especially under Singletary. Early on the talent just wasn't there. But the last few years it clearly wasn't the talent holding the team back. I do think that changes things.

Having said that, the injury situation almost has to be worse (though I do think there's something to be said about having generally durable players, especially on D), and we play arguably the two best divisions in football this year in the AFC East and NFC North, along with the Saints and Giants. But dropping six games when we have only added to the team's overall talent and have another year in the system in all three phases of the game...I just can't see it.

Exactly! I don't see us as a 6-10 team that suddenly won 13 games and is now in for some statistical fall from grace. Our fall from grace happened last year when we should have gone from being 8-8 to a 10+ win team but instead fell to 6-10.

Health is always the wild-card in these "how good are you really" discussions and we are not without our vulnerabilities, but we also have a lot of depth to fall back on as well.

If we can keep the three Smith's healthy we are going to quickly become the exception to all these statistical rules that have us following some historical trend and falling off a cliff.

 

[mem49er]

...but I think the 49ers, because of their hellish intangibles over the last ~seven years, fall WAY outside of any statistical predictive model including FO's.

This...

Yeah, I don't think you can quantify just how bad the coaching was, especially under Singletary. Early on the talent just wasn't there. But the last few years it clearly wasn't the talent holding the team back. I do think that changes things... But dropping six games when we have only added to the team's overall talent and have another year in the system in all three phases of the game...I just can't see it.

And this.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Having gotten through the video, I wanted to touch briefly on the injury issue. First, we were right in the middle with games lost on offense, so that probably won't change much. However, on D, over the past five years we've ranked in the top-3 three times. There is an element of luck in injuries. But there is also something to be said for players who are or are not injury prone. I don't think it's a pure coincidence that the Niners have been pretty healthy lately. Again, it's unlikely we'll remain THAT healthy, but it's possible. Even if we don't, we've got starting-caliber backups at OLB, ILB, and CB. And Justin Smith just doesn't get hurt (knock on wood).

As much as it's a stretch to assumed we'll stay healthy, I think it's a stretch to assume we'll fall into the bottom half of the league as well. Just my 2 cents.