John Clayton again

[Crimsoncrew]

I didn't hear the interview, so I can't say for sure, but my understanding was that he said, "If...could..." not "If...will..." That's the crucial difference for me.

Right now, the Niners look like the class of the division. But it's the NFL. With the exception of the Pats and Steelers, things change every season.

 

[deep9er]

yeah, we can't underestimate anyone, especially other West foes. we have to take them seriously on their game days.

i also don't get the 20 TD limit? this doesn't seem like a lot for an average team (7-9)? if Flynn is to lift an average team to more victories, seem like mid twenties at very least?

i'm anxious to read reports on our O-line? once there is contact in TC, they'll start to report it. they're all seasoned vets now so they can form a better UNIT. even with the new RG, i'd expect noticable improvement.

last season the O-line started poorly, very poorly. they don't have any excuses this season.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

yeah, we can't underestimate anyone, especially other West foes. we have to take them seriously on their game days.

i also don't get the 20 TD limit? this doesn't seem like a lot for an average team (7-9)? if Flynn is to lift an average team to more victories, seem like mid twenties at very least?

i'm anxious to read reports on our O-line? once there is contact in TC, they'll start to report it. they're all seasoned vets now so they can form a better UNIT. even with the new RG, i'd expect noticable improvement.

last season the O-line started poorly, very poorly. they don't have any excuses this season.

Yeah, the OL is definitely one of the spots to watch. Iupati and Davis were probably hurt more than anyone on the team by the lack of offseason, and Rachal just fell apart. I'm interested to see what happens with Davis and Boone next to each other. The biggest problem with Rachal wasn't just that he was struggling, but when he was next to Davis, Davis also lost it. Boone is a younger player, but he's more stable than Chilo, and Davis is a seasoned vet now, so hopefully they can start off strong.

As for the Hawks and the 20 TD limit, the Hawks had a very good run game and a good D with one glaring weakness which they made some moves to address. They were average because their QB play was below average. I think the point that Clayton is making is that if they can get even decent QB play, they can be a good team. I tend to agree.

 

[yossarian]

As for the Hawks and the 20 TD limit, the Hawks had a very good run game and a good D with one glaring weakness which they made some moves to address. They were average because their QB play was below average. I think the point that Clayton is making is that if they can get even decent QB play, they can be a good team. I tend to agree.[/QUOTE]

I agree with that too. The interview is interesting, Clayton is asked "If Flynn does ____, the Hawks win the division." Clayton first says 20 tds, which means that that would be a sufficient condition for them winning. Then as he rambles on he backtracks a little. So at first it was if WILL, then it was if COULD.

 

[Jikkle]

I think we all agree that Seattle is a good team on the rise it's just my point of contention if the Seahawks are going to win the DIVISION they are going to need more than 20 TDs production from Flynn or whomever the QB is to beat us.

Both defenses should be good and both running game should be good as well so aside from injuries superior QB play is the only way I see Seattle being able to leapfrog us in the division. I think Alex Smith is good for around 25 TDs give or take this season so I don't think 20 TDs is going to be enough for whoever the QB is.

I mean right now Clayton on SC said the TJax is going to be 1st team QB when TC opens because Flynn has yet to wow anybody in the offseason program yet so that QB situation is still looking pretty messy in Seattle.

 

[deep9er]

Yeah, the OL is definitely one of the spots to watch. Iupati and Davis were probably hurt more than anyone on the team by the lack of offseason, and Rachal just fell apart. I'm interested to see what happens with Davis and Boone next to each other. The biggest problem with Rachal wasn't just that he was struggling, but when he was next to Davis, Davis also lost it. Boone is a younger player, but he's more stable than Chilo, and Davis is a seasoned vet now, so hopefully they can start off strong.

As for the Hawks and the 20 TD limit, the Hawks had a very good run game and a good D with one glaring weakness which they made some moves to address. They were average because their QB play was below average. I think the point that Clayton is making is that if they can get even decent QB play, they can be a good team. I tend to agree.

yes, i get what Clayton intended but still, as others have already pointed out.....why 20?

the Seahawks were 7-9 so adding GOOD QB play (say 25 TD's minimum) might lift them to a 'good' level. but adding AVERAGE QB play (20 TD's) only lifts you from 'below average' to 'average'?

or as you termed it...now adding 'decent' QB play only lifts them to 'average'? anyways, not worth haranging over, he favors the 49ers in the West.

 

[deep9er]

I think we all agree that Seattle is a good team on the rise it's just my point of contention if the Seahawks are going to win the DIVISION they are going to need more than 20 TDs production from Flynn or whomever the QB is to beat us.

Both defenses should be good and both running game should be good as well so aside from injuries superior QB play is the only way I see Seattle being able to leapfrog us in the division. I think Alex Smith is good for around 25 TDs give or take this season so I don't think 20 TDs is going to be enough for whoever the QB is.

I mean right now Clayton on SC said the TJax is going to be 1st team QB when TC opens because Flynn has yet to wow anybody in the offseason program yet so that QB situation is still looking pretty messy in Seattle.

ahh yes, i agree and should've read two more posts.

 

[MHSL82]

Football Outsiders projects the Niners to win 7.2 games - Inside the 49ers

Disclaimer: I posted this for the information that Pro-Football Outsiders predicts we'll win 7.2 games this year, not to cite a Cohn article. I just haven't subscribed to FBO so I don't have the real article.

I think they are completely wrong about their prediction. If they end up being right, I would start giving them some rep because no one else sees this. Until then, they are crazy.

“The 49ers actually won 2.2 more games in 2011 than they should have accord*ing to Estimated Wins. Since 1991, that discrepancy translates to about two more losses the following sea*son. The 49ers outperformed their Estimated Wins number due in part to a fabulous 7-2 record in close games. We’ve found that a team’s record in close games almost never carries over from one season to the next, so the 49ers can’t expect to win as many games in 2012 without getting out to some bigger leads.”

“Although Alex Smith has posted a better-than-average interception rate in each of the past two seasons, his 1.1-percent rate from 2011 is unsustainable…Only 5.4 percent of 49ers offensive drives ended in a turnover, the lowest figure in our drive stats data that goes back to 1997. 23.9 percent of 49ers drives ended in a field goal, the highest figure since 1997.”

Update: Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief and ESPN NFL Analyst Aaron Schatz just tweeted this: “Yes, 49ers fans, 7.2 seems a little low to me too, but that’s what the equations spat out. I’m expecting 9-7 or so.”

With the update, I suppose 10-6 is the goal for the floor.

 

[deep9er]

Football Outsiders projects the Niners to win 7.2 games - Inside the 49ers

Disclaimer: I posted this for the information that Pro-Football Outsiders predicts we'll win 7.2 games this year, not to cite a Cohn article. I just haven't subscribed to FBO so I don't have the real article.

I think they are completely wrong about their prediction. If they end up being right, I would start giving them some rep because no one else sees this. Until then, they are crazy.






With the update, I suppose 10-6 is the goal for the floor.

if Vegas put out a win line for the 49ers at 7.2, would anyone bet 'under'?

 

[Bemular]

if Vegas put out a win line for the 49ers at 7.2, would anyone bet 'under'?

Depending on the line I might hedge with such a bet, but I would not place a solo bet on it.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

Thanks for posting - it's interesting to see. But I don't agree with that reasoning. It's flawed because our team is built to win close games like a Baltimore type team. We had a few firework come back battles against Philadelphia, Detroit, and the Giants during the regular season but mostly leaned heavily on the defense/ST's to grind out a lead. When you have an elite defense and elite ST's you will win a lot of close games that way by nature.

I looked at the results and the grind-out type close games included Bangels, Cle, Wash, Sea, and the Rams. We grinded out Pitts. If Rothlissburger wasn't so banged up, that one probably ends up being a close win too. I expect it to change a little bit, but it's not like evaluating fumble recoveries where you can arbitrarily split it half and half.

 

[deep9er]

Depending on the line I might hedge with such a bet, but I would not place a solo bet on it.

talking about an even line, a heads up either over or under 7.2 wins.

 

[Bemular]

talking about an even line, a heads up either over or under 7.2 wins.

Even odds - no thanks. I mean a few injuries here & there and we're staring 7-9 or 8-8 right in the eyes. But, man if we stay healthy and if Alex can just stay the course he was on last year, then I think we are a 12 win team - Just on paper we have to be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the league going into 2012.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Yeah, I can't see us losing six more games than we did this year. Not to mention they have the NFC West being won at 7 games again (Hawks also at 7.2). I see the Niners around 9 or 10 wins unless they have either a crucial injury (any of the three Smiths for more than a game or so) or a rash of injuries. Could go higher, but I'd be surprised if it's much lower.

Incidentally, Cohn since posted the number of 9+ teams predicted, and the Saints are in there. I'll be very surprised, even with that offense, if the Saints get 9 wins this year. Bills have almost 10 wins. Bears and Falcons at 10. We'll see what happens, but I'm skeptical. I wonder what their success rate is on these predictions?

 

[MHSL82]

Yeah, I can't see us losing six more games than we did this year. Not to mention they have the NFC West being won at 7 games again (Hawks also at 7.2). I see the Niners around 9 or 10 wins unless they have either a crucial injury (any of the three Smiths for more than a game or so) or a rash of injuries. Could go higher, but I'd be surprised if it's much lower.

Incidentally, Cohn since posted the number of 9+ teams predicted, and the Saints are in there. I'll be very surprised, even with that offense, if the Saints get 9 wins this year. Bills have almost 10 wins. Bears and Falcons at 10. We'll see what happens, but I'm skeptical. I wonder what their success rate is on these predictions?

Do you know if they have all bets for last year a non-subscriber can access? A small sample size, but it doesn't seem worth going over 32 teams more than one year.

 

[Cut My Red I Bleed Gold]

John Clayton = Mr Burns.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Do you know if they have all bets for last year a non-subscriber can access? A small sample size, but it doesn't seem worth going over 32 teams more than one year.

No idea. Probably not on the website, but this being the internet, I'd imagine it's out there somewhere.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Video discussing the Niners here. I'm listening to it now.

Statistical analysis: 49ers not a leading contender, will win only seven games | 49ers Hot Read

 

[Bemular]

Video discussing the Niners here. I'm listening to it now.

Statistical analysis: 49ers not a leading contender, will win only seven games | 49ers Hot Read

Drugs - they make some people just jump right into crazy talk. Actually, I have mad respect for FOutsiders, but I think the 49ers, because of their hellish intangibles over the last ~seven years, fall WAY outside of any statistical predictive model including FO's.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Yeah, I don't think you can quantify just how bad the coaching was, especially under Singletary. Early on the talent just wasn't there. But the last few years it clearly wasn't the talent holding the team back. I do think that changes things.

Having said that, the injury situation almost has to be worse (though I do think there's something to be said about having generally durable players, especially on D), and we play arguably the two best divisions in football this year in the AFC East and NFC North, along with the Saints and Giants. But dropping six games when we have only added to the team's overall talent and have another year in the system in all three phases of the game...I just can't see it.