JDM

[TKO]

I thought you'd like to see today's version of a draft value chart instead of the one Jimmy Johnson created since we were talking about it.

Pro Football Reference = PFR below

PFR looked at thirty years of drafts and assigned numerical values based on where a player was selected and how his career played out. They then used a logarithmic formula to predict a draft pick's "approximate career value" and created a table of the results.

Sample1st round values : #1 = 73, #10 = 44, #20 = 35, #30 = 30

The values are closer to each other than Johnson's: #1 = 3000, #10 = 1300, #20 = 850, #30 = 620

With the PFR Chart #20 is approximately worth half of #1 while Johnson shows #20 to be closer to a fourth of the #1 value.

Johnson's chart is completely arbitrary while there is data behind PFRs.

There's another chart done by The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective that takes it another step and they have this to say about Johnson's chart:

...there is no statistical evidence to back up the relative values of these draft picks. There is no reason why the 156th pick is 100 times less valuable than the first overall pick. “The Chart” simply dictates how much each pick is worth. These values also have no grounding in the real worth of the players drafted at a given pick. This system is a ridiculous way to value picks because there is no reason behind the values it gives. There must be a better approach.

PFR: The Draft Value Chart: Right or Wrong? » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

Harvard analysis: How to Value NFL Draft Picks | The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

I thought you'd like to see today's version of a draft value chart instead of the one Jimmy Johnson created since we were talking about it.

Pro Football Reference = PFR below

PFR looked at thirty years of drafts and assigned numerical values based on where a player was selected and how his career played out. They then used a logarithmic formula to predict a draft pick's "approximate career value" and created a table of the results.

Sample1st round values : #1 = 73, #10 = 44, #20 = 35, #30 = 30

The values are closer to each other than Johnson's: #1 = 3000, #10 = 1300, #20 = 850, #30 = 620

With the PFR Chart #20 is approximately worth half of #1 while Johnson shows #20 to be closer to a fourth of the #1 value.

Johnson's chart is completely arbitrary while there is data behind PFRs.

There's another chart done by The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective that takes it another step and they have this to say about Johnson's chart:

...there is no statistical evidence to back up the relative values of these draft picks. There is no reason why the 156th pick is 100 times less valuable than the first overall pick. “The Chart” simply dictates how much each pick is worth. These values also have no grounding in the real worth of the players drafted at a given pick. This system is a ridiculous way to value picks because there is no reason behind the values it gives. There must be a better approach.

PFR: The Draft Value Chart: Right or Wrong? » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

Harvard analysis: How to Value NFL Draft Picks | The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

Krafty - are you telling me that Harvard did an analysis on the NFL Draft chart?

Don't worry - I am sure that JDM will think that Jimmuh has a better idea of how the value chart should go.

 

[JDM]

And? With that chart the starting value Seattle had to work with still blows ours away.

I said the original chart wasn't awesome, but it's not really important. What is is that because we have had by far the best record in the league since Belichick has been coach, we have also had by far the least draft value to work with.

 

[TKO]

Krafty - are you telling me that Harvard did an analysis on the NFL Draft chart?

Don't worry - I am sure that JDM will think that Jimmuh has a better idea of how the value chart should go.

I think Jimmy created it when he was trying to trade Herschel Walker to the Vikings

HSAC is a student-run organization at Harvard College dedicated to the quantitative analysis of sports strategy and management. This blog features the original contributions of Harvard undergraduates, graduates, faculty, and affiliates. HSAC does research for several sports-related publications and companies.

 

[JDM]

It is an interesting valuation, and more mathematically, sound, though. I'll obviously say that. It just doesn't alter my point.

 

[TKO]

And? With that chart the starting value Seattle had to work with still blows ours away.

I said the original chart wasn't awesome, but it's not really important. What is is that because we have had by far the best record in the league since Belichick has been coach, we have also had by far the least draft value to work with.

Are you including the spot Mayo was taken at in 2008? I doubt it...10th overall.

Belichick turned a lot of higher picks into lower ones so I don't think you're winning that argument any time soon.

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

It is an interesting valuation, and more mathematically, sound, though. I'll obviously say that. It just doesn't alter my point.

And what was that point again? Oh yes - teams with better draft picks equate to more success in the NFL.

That and college football still sucks.

 

[JDM]

I'm talking the picks they actually are given. Any value picked up through trades is part of the drafting strategy, not part of your starting value.

 

[TKO]

It is an interesting valuation, and more mathematically, sound, though. I'll obviously say that. It just doesn't alter my point.

You do realize the PFR value of pick #32 is only five points lower than #20 don't you?

 

[TKO]

And what was that point again? Oh yes - teams with better draft picks equate to more success in the NFL.

That and college football still sucks.

Bobby Grier said that?

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

Bobby Grier said that?

He did as well as the directors of player personnel of the Lions who worked for Matt Millen.

 

[JDM]

You do realize the PFR value of pick #32 is only five points lower than #20 don't you?

When the value of the number 32 pick is considered 30 points, 5 points is a substantial difference.

 

[TKO]

He did as well as the directors of player personnel of the Lions who worked for Matt Millen.

Millen never saw WR he didn't want LOL!

 

[JDM]

And what was that point again? Oh yes - teams with better draft picks equate to more success in the NFL.

That and college football still sucks.

How dim do you have to be to not be able to tell the difference between "teams with high picks draft better" and "the same person with higher picks will do better"?

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

When the value of the number 32 pick is considered 30 points, 5 points is a substantial difference.

And there is a substantial difference between Dez Bryant and Tim Tebow and they were only separated by one pick.

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

Millen never saw WR he didn't want LOL!

 

[JDM]

And there is a substantial difference between Dez Bryant and Tim Tebow and they were only separated by one pick.

My five year old cousin is smarter than you.

 

[Bruschi_Warrior]

My five year old cousin is smarter than you.

Wow - and that must make you the stupidest person on this board then.

 

[TKO]

When the value of the number 32 pick is considered 30 points, 5 points is a substantial difference.

PFR effectively turned higher draft picks into lower values and lower draft picks into higher values which is contrary to your point.

 

[TKO]

My five year old cousin is smarter than you.

If I want college football player info I'm relying on Bru for it...because he has it!