J Roll, 5/50??

[tzill]

Rollins was worth around 3.7 wins this season according to both FanGraphs and Baseball-reference. If he regresses by 0.5 wins in 2012, his age-33 season, then by 0.7 wins in years 2-5, he’ll be worth 8.8 wins over five seasons (3.0, 2.5, 1.8, 1.1, 0.4). In his first two seasons he’d be worth a surplus of about $8 million. In year three he’d be just about right, $10MM. And in the final two seasons he’d probably be overpaid by about the same, $10MM. Put it all together and he’s worth $49 million over five years.

Thoughts?

 

[msgkings322]

I'd rather go 4/44 but obviously depends on his agent, Sabean, and his own self.

5 years of an aging SS?

 

[calsnowskier]

He grew up a G's fan, correct?

I am more willing to overpay a guy who WANTS to be here than overpay a guy who longs to talk about Chicago sports. The pill just goes down a bit easier when he loves the org (see PTMFB) than if he is just waiting for parole (RoRo).

 

[tzill]

I'd prefer to go 3/36 although I'd expect Craw/Adrianza to be ready before even that contract expires.

 

[filosofy29]

I'd rather go 3/$37.5 than either of the 4/$44 or 5/$50, but 3/$37.5 is the most I'd offer JRoll. Hopefully he'd take it if he didn't have any better offers, but I'm sure he'll find something better than my offer.

 

[Heathbar012]

I'd rather go 3/$37.5 than either of the 4/$44 or 5/$50, but 3/$37.5 is the most I'd offer JRoll. Hopefully he'd take it if he didn't have any better offers, but I'm sure he'll find something better than my offer.

Plus, you'd never pay him! :p (late dues checks notwithstanding)

 

[msgkings322]

He grew up a G's fan, correct?

I am more willing to overpay a guy who WANTS to be here than overpay a guy who longs to talk about Chicago sports. The pill just goes down a bit easier when he loves the org (see PTMFB) than if he is just waiting for parole (RoRo).

Gotta +1 this.

 

[msgkings322]

I'd rather go 3/$37.5 than either of the 4/$44 or 5/$50, but 3/$37.5 is the most I'd offer JRoll. Hopefully he'd take it if he didn't have any better offers, but I'm sure he'll find something better than my offer.

Yes, 3 years for more per year would be ideal, same for Beltran...but the market for both has to be stronger...

 

[SFGRTB]

Who will be in on J-Roll do we think?

RedSox, Tampa, Royals, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Mets.

Of all those teams, I'd say the only serious ones would be Giants, Phillies, Cards, Braves. If the Marlins could muster out some cash, he'd be exactly what they are looking for (vet leadership, a face and a leadoff hitter).

But really, the Cards probably can't offer much unless Albert moves on. I don't think that his price tag will be driven up too much, though it depends on the Phillies motive. If they decide that they dont care about money, Rollins will return because a lack of an alternative. Or they'll go after Reyes.

 

[the_broom]

Who will be in on J-Roll do we think?

RedSox, Tampa, Royals, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Mets.

Of all those teams, I'd say the only serious ones would be Giants, Phillies, Cards, Braves. If the Marlins could muster out some cash, he'd be exactly what they are looking for (vet leadership, a face and a leadoff hitter).
But really, the Cards probably can't offer much unless Albert moves on. I don't think that his price tag will be driven up too much, though it depends on the Phillies motive. If they decide that they dont care about money, Rollins will return because a lack of an alternative. Or they'll go after Reyes.

Where is Hanley Ramirez during this?

 

[SF11704]

J-Roll fills two very big holes for us. Gives us a quality SS and a leadoff hitter. Question is how much is this work to us and for how long? I'd personally go 3/36M and be happy about it. Worries me to go 5 years with an aging vet. But for me this also means that we have little to no use for Crawford other than a trading chip. I love Crawford's glove but don't really see him ever being an offensive force.
Another key factor in this is Reyes. J-Roll's asking price will be tied to what Reyes is demanding. I can see Reyes going 5/90M. Living in NY I've seen Reyes quite a bit. He's electric --- when he's healthy - and that's the issue. He be a good center piece to build around if he wasn't so damn fraigle.

 

[filosofy29]

If it were up to me, I'd grab Rollins (assuming he'd take it) for a 3 year, $37.5mil contract and then I'd go grab Crisp for a 2 year, $15mil contract. These two aren't my ideal people to pick up, but it sounds like the FO won't break the bank this offseason.....and these two seem to offer the most bang for the buck.

 

[Heathbar012]

If it were up to me, I'd grab Rollins (assuming he'd take it) for a 3 year, $37.5mil contract and then I'd go grab Crisp for a 2 year, $15mil contract. These two aren't my ideal people to pick up, but it sounds like the FO won't break the bank this offseason.....and these two seem to offer the most bang for the buck.

The most speed available at those prices, too (not a drug reference). If those two come to the Giants and average a .330 OBP, this team would be very scary good. The D suffers slightly, but not enough to really worry me. Hypothetically, of course.

 

[tzill]

J-Roll fills two very big holes for us. Gives us a quality SS and a leadoff hitter. Question is how much is this work to us and for how long? I'd personally go 3/36M and be happy about it. Worries me to go 5 years with an aging vet. But for me this also means that we have little to no use for Crawford other than a trading chip. I love Crawford's glove but don't really see him ever being an offensive force.
Another key factor in this is Reyes. J-Roll's asking price will be tied to what Reyes is demanding. I can see Reyes going 5/90M. Living in NY I've seen Reyes quite a bit. He's electric --- when he's healthy - and that's the issue. He be a good center piece to build around if he wasn't so damn fraigle.

Well, if JRoll insists on 4+ years, we're out. But, on a three year deal, Craw could still phase in - AAA in 2012, backup in 2013, and half time in 2014.

Agreed on Reyes -- stay the fuck away from that crystal mess.

 

[tzill]

If it were up to me, I'd grab Rollins (assuming he'd take it) for a 3 year, $37.5mil contract and then I'd go grab Crisp for a 2 year, $15mil contract. These two aren't my ideal people to pick up, but it sounds like the FO won't break the bank this offseason.....and these two seem to offer the most bang for the buck.

Not sure we could fit another $20MM into the budget. Sabes has indicated he's bringing back Chez ($5MM) and Affeldt (renegotiated $4MM?).

We shall see.

 

[Heathbar012]

Not sure we could fit another $20MM into the budget. Sabes has indicated he's bringing back Chez ($5MM) and Affeldt (renegotiated $4MM?).

We shall see.

You're so very right, but think of this:

Crisp CF
Franchez 2B
Pandoval 3B
Posey C
Rollins SS
Huff 1B
Belt LF
Schierholtz RF

Not the best possible line-up with the FA available, but the closest to realistic and exciting. I have a difficult time getting excited over Cuddyer and DeJesus, even though they are likely better all-around players than Crisp, and have more tread on their tires than J-Ro. You're right, though. It all comes down to the money, and even the contracts favorable to the Giants, are pure speculation.

 

[SFGRTB]

SS-Rollins
2B-Sanchez
C-Posey
3B-Sandoval
1B-Huff
RF-Schierholtz
LF-Belt
CF-Torres

If we could afford it, could defiantly use a righty bat in the OF (if Nate can play CF). Willingham would be a great fit, though likely too pricey. BJ Upton through trade maybe?

 

[CameronFrye]

Well, if JRoll insists on 4+ years, we're out. But, on a three year deal, Craw could still phase in - AAA in 2012, backup in 2013, and half time in 2014.

Agreed on Reyes -- stay the fuck away from that crystal mess.

I'd give him 3 guaranteed with an option for the fourth based on plate appearances (600 in 2014? or 1,000 total between 2013 and 2014?). If he starts breaking down because of age, or if he just stops hitting, chances are very good that he will not make the required number of appearances to activate teh clause. If he does, he was likely worth keeping anyway.

3 years, $37.5 mil with an option for year 4 at say $10-$12 mil, making it a 4-year, $47.5-$49.5 mil deal.

 

[tzill]

I'd give him 3 guaranteed with an option for the fourth based on plate appearances (600 in 2014? or 1,000 total between 2013 and 2014?). If he starts breaking down because of age, or if he just stops hitting, chances are very good that he will not make the required number of appearances to activate teh clause. If he does, he was likely worth keeping anyway.

3 years, $37.5 mil with an option for year 4 at say $10-$12 mil, making it a 4-year, $47.5-$49.5 mil deal.

That makes some sense. I think that might be enough to get him too. Not sure if that's in the budget. I'm reading the Giants, already promising not to lower payroll, are not going to raise it either.

 

[Heathbar012]

That makes some sense. I think that might be enough to get him too. Not sure if that's in the budget. I'm reading the Giants, already promising not to lower payroll, are not going to raise it either.

Even just a teeny wittle bit? Aw, come on, Uncle Larry! Put on a bow tie and make things happen!