Series Thread: It's the O's 5/3-5

[Bmurph]

The X-rays were negative, so I guess he'll just be sore for a while, but probably be day-to-day depending on soreness.

I don't remember if Feldman was involved in this or not.

Feldman was the one that actually hit him with the pitch

 

[TheRangerDude]

You don't think we'll be in on him? I absolutely think we will. I don't think we'll get into a bidding war, but we have Daniel freaking Murphy DHing some games. If thy truly don't want to give up on this season then they need to pursue him.

The way I look at it is we potentially already have a lot of money invested in 1B even though he is gone for the season we are expecting (more like strongly hoping) he will be able to come back next season and have success. I think you have to do that given the investment. In the mean time, you have Moreland, who is a guy they like, that can fill in. And also Murphy which I agree makes much less sense but he can do the job.

Morales waited this thing out to get a player friendly deal and I just don't think, even if we get involved in it at any level, that we will be willing to go where other teams will. My reasoning is simple:

1. Budget and overloading at DH/1B- we are already at the highest team salary we have ever seen. Signing Morales would not only add to that it would also likely require several years which would give us a stock pile of 1B/DH's. Lets not forget discussions we have had on Beltre's decline on defense as well. Morales is also much more of a DH than a 1B too and to play it safe with Prince we also might want him to DH some next season. Choo is also another potential DH in 4-5 years but I doubt it will require that much to sign Morales.

2. Injuries and poor pitching- Given the vast amount of injuries this season, it honestly might be foolish to be buyers this early. Adding a solid bat isn't going to make up for the AL's 3rd worst ERA. And there is no guarantee that Holland is going to help very much when he gets back. It might be the end of the season before he gets back into rhythm. We are an average AL offense (7th) and though Morales would improve the offense and likely help improve that rank. I think its pretty rare that a team advances very far in the playoffs or even makes them with the numbers our pitching staff has put up so far this season.

I'm not giving up or anything, this would just be my perspective if I was financially invested in the team.

In short, I would be all about us signing him as a fan but from a business standpoint, unless he goes for really cheap- I don't think it makes sense.

Now if he stays a FA near the trade deadline and pitching has picked it up a significantly- that's a different story.

 

[jta4437]

The way I look at it is we potentially already have a lot of money invested in 1B even though he is gone for the season we are expecting (more like strongly hoping) he will be able to come back next season and have success. I think you have to do that given the investment. In the mean time, you have Moreland, who is a guy they like, that can fill in. And also Murphy which I agree makes much less sense but he can do the job.

Morales waited this thing out to get a player friendly deal and I just don't think, even if we get involved in it at any level, that we will be willing to go where other teams will. My reasoning is simple:

1. Budget and overloading at DH/1B- we are already at the highest team salary we have ever seen. Signing Morales would not only add to that it would also likely require several years which would give us a stock pile of 1B/DH's. Lets not forget discussions we have had on Beltre's decline on defense as well. Morales is also much more of a DH than a 1B too and to play it safe with Prince we also might want him to DH some next season. Choo is also another potential DH in 4-5 years but I doubt it will require that much to sign Morales.

2. Injuries and poor pitching- Given the vast amount of injuries this season, it honestly might be foolish to be buyers this early. Adding a solid bat isn't going to make up for the AL's 3rd worst ERA. And there is no guarantee that Holland is going to help very much when he gets back. It might be the end of the season before he gets back into rhythm. We are an average AL offense (7th) and though Morales would improve the offense and likely help improve that rank. I think its pretty rare that a team advances very far in the playoffs or even makes them with the numbers our pitching staff has put up so far this season.

I'm not giving up or anything, this would just be my perspective if I was financially invested in the team.

In short, I would be all about us signing him as a fan but from a business standpoint, unless he goes for really cheap- I don't think it makes sense.

Now if he stays a FA near the trade deadline and pitching has picked it up a significantly- that's a different story.

I doubt he gets much more than a 1 year deal and I doubt he gets very much, b/c frankly he's not worth very much, he's one who should have also taken the QO as he never really had much of a market being a DH mostly 1B occasionally type

If someone is truly willing to give him more than 1 year, so be it, but if he can be had for the rest of this season, then go for it for a 1 year deal 5-7 million should get it done

You are right, the pitching is the biggest problem and thats not likely to round itself out without some people getting healthy and Lewis getting himself squared away again (if he does at all)

 

[TheRangerDude]

Oh, and to add to that pitching topic. It's awesome that we lead the majors with 11 shutouts but it also says a lot that we still have the 3rd worst team ERA with 11 shutouts. Basically, this means that in 20% of our games we are untouchable but in the other 80% we have a 5.34 ERA. This is almost a full ER higher than the highest MLB team ERA which is held by the D-backs whom only have 2 shutouts. If you normalize their team ERA the same way, with the 3% of the time they have been untouchable, they, as team would only be at a team ERA of 4.63.

So when we are good, 20% of the time- we are the best. But when we are bad, 80% of the time, we are the worst.

 

[jta4437]

Oh, and to add to that pitching topic. It's awesome that we lead the majors with 11 shutouts but it also says a lot that we still have the 3rd worst team ERA with 11 shutouts. Basically, this means that in 20% of our games we are untouchable but in the other 80% we have a 5.34 ERA. This is almost a full ER higher than the highest MLB team ERA which is held by the D-backs whom only have 2 shutouts. If you normalize their team ERA the same way, with the 3% of the time they have been untouchable, they, as team would only be at a team ERA of 4.63.

So when we are good, 20% of the time- we are the best. But when we are bad, 80% of the time, we are the worst.

Well Lewis' luck has to normalize at some point, he's got a .401 BABIP

His peripheral numbers are solid, not spectacular by any stretch, but solid

 

[Bmurph]

Oh, and to add to that pitching topic. It's awesome that we lead the majors with 11 shutouts but it also says a lot that we still have the 3rd worst team ERA with 11 shutouts. Basically, this means that in 20% of our games we are untouchable but in the other 80% we have a 5.34 ERA. This is almost a full ER higher than the highest MLB team ERA which is held by the D-backs whom only have 2 shutouts. If you normalize their team ERA the same way, with the 3% of the time they have been untouchable, they, as team would only be at a team ERA of 4.63.

So when we are good, 20% of the time- we are the best. But when we are bad, 80% of the time, we are the worst.

Well we have Darvish whom is capable of pitching shutout baseball almost every time on the mound aside from vs the A's and then a lot of question marks. Though Saunders last start was a shutout, don't expect that to happen again. We got 3 quality arms out of the rotation which would almost devastate some teams. Glad to be holding serve up until this point

 

[TheRangerDude]

I doubt he gets much more than a 1 year deal and I doubt he gets very much, b/c frankly he's not worth very much, he's one who should have also taken the QO as he never really had much of a market being a DH mostly 1B occasionally type

If someone is truly willing to give him more than 1 year, so be it, but if he can be had for the rest of this season, then go for it for a 1 year deal 5-7 million should get it done

You are right, the pitching is the biggest problem and thats not likely to round itself out without some people getting healthy and Lewis getting himself squared away again (if he does at all)

I think if he gets a year and the amount your talking we better lock him up but if that happens, him holding out was a complete failure. I mean even Cruz got $8M when he had doubters and a draft pick tied to him for a year deal and here we are talking about a 1.6ish year deal for even less without a pick involved.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Well we have Darvish whom is capable of pitching shutout baseball almost every time on the mound aside from vs the A's and then a lot of question marks. Though Saunders last start was a shutout, don't expect that to happen again. We got 3 quality arms out of the rotation which would almost devastate some teams. Glad to be holding serve up until this point

Yeah, me too. I definitely haven't given up on the season and still have a ton of hope left things will pan out. I mean being 20% untouchable has it promises too. Very happy to be where we are considering everything and still a long way to go. Your spot on about Saunders.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Your spot on about Darvish too. It's no coincidence that shutout % is 20% given a 5 man rotation... sure he hasn't pitched them all but he has created most of the opportunities. Sort of shocking that he doesn't have as shout out so far but I guess its just because he has no CGs.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Here is the shutout distribution by SP of each shutout game:

Darvish 4
Perez 3
Ross 1
Harrison 1
Lewis 1
Saunders 1

So, perhaps my last statement is a bit flawed... however, I still agree Darvish really is capable of going out and tossing one in every one of his starts.

 

[Bmurph]

Yeah, me too. I definitely haven't given up on the season and still have a ton of hope left things will pan out. I mean being 20% untouchable has it promises too. Very happy to be where we are considering everything and still a long way to go. Your spot on about Saunders.

Plenty of season left for the whole landscape to change. Oakland is a couple season ending injuries away from coming back to the pack in the west. The Rangers could get a couple guys back and who knows how it all plays out in the end, though it's too soon to fret over what has taken place so far. I however would love if JD could pull off adding some depth in the starting pitching area as Perez may be a half a season guy next year and who knows what that half season will be like( it usually takes almost 2 years to come back and be close to where you were when you were injured). Harry is likely done and Derek will be Derek even when healthy and ready to return.

 

[Bmurph]

Here is the shutout distribution by SP of each shutout game:

Darvish 4
Perez 3
Ross 1
Harrison 1
Lewis 1
Saunders 1

So, perhaps my last statement is a bit flawed... however, I still agree Darvish really is capable of going out and tossing one in every one of his starts.

Darvish can be fantastic but even in his starts given his pitch counts, he needs a couple clean innings by the bullpen to preserve shutouts. We all know the bullpen hasn't been as awesome as it was last year but they have to be given credit for the shutouts aside from a couple MP starts where I believe he pitched complete games or close to

 

[TheRangerDude]

Plenty of season left for the whole landscape to change. Oakland is a couple season ending injuries away from coming back to the pack in the west. The Rangers could get a couple guys back and who knows how it all plays out in the end, though it's too soon to fret over what has taken place so far. I however would love if JD could pull off adding some depth in the starting pitching area as Perez may be a half a season guy next year and who knows what that half season will be like( it usually takes almost 2 years to come back and be close to where you were when you were injured). Harry is likely done and Derek will be Derek even when healthy and ready to return.

Yup, SP is really our largest need...even in the long term. Whether we are in contention or not at the deadline, I still hope we make an attempt to go after someone good that we can lock up for a while. I think a contract extension would likely need to be worked into the trade. I think Iwakuma is a FA after this season. If there was any way we could trade for him and get him to agree to a 2-3 year deal that might be ideal or maybe even Scherzer but I just don't see him not testing the market and I am not sure he is worth the investment he will command. Even Iwakuma not testing the market is a long shot.

 

[Bmurph]

Team ERA has to be looked at in perspective as well when you take into consideration the bullpen has some guys w bloated era's as well as some real stinkers by Scheppers and the latest from Tep and a couple by RR. Again just happy to be within striking distance at this point and if we head south from here I can't really fault anyone given the circumstances

 

[TheRangerDude]

Well, actually now that I look at this Iwakuma has a $7M option next season- can't see the M's giving up on that without some serious prospects being involved. Shields may be an option though and I have always liked him. Still it would take a lot either of these guys though.

 

[Bmurph]

Yup, SP is really our largest need...even in the long term. Whether we are in contention or not at the deadline, I still hope we make an attempt to go after someone good that we can lock up for a while. I think a contract extension would likely need to be worked into the trade. I think Iwakuma is a FA after this season. If there was any way we could trade for him and get him to agree to a 2-3 year deal that might be ideal or maybe even Scherzer but I just don't see him not testing the market and I am not sure he is worth the investment he will command. Even Iwakuma not testing the market is a long shot.

Side note: in dealing with trades I think JD has to do a better job locking guys up at the time, if you are going to make deals like the Garza one and give up so much you better want to keep the guy past a rental. Not that Garza was great but he would definitely have added depth that is needed at this point.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Team ERA has to be looked at in perspective as well when you take into consideration the bullpen has some guys w bloated era's as well as some real stinkers by Scheppers and the latest from Tep and a couple by RR. Again just happy to be within striking distance at this point and if we head south from here I can't really fault anyone given the circumstances

Indeed, I honestly don't think by the end of the season that we will be as bad as we are now in team ERA. Shep and Ross should help the pen a lot and who knows, maybe Ogando will find his stuff again and maybe even Feliz at some point. Martinez and Tep have a lot of promise and despite results I actually think Lewis has looked very good given the injury he came off of.

Ok, I better stop rambling on here and pass out but been nice chatting.

 

[Bmurph]

I doubt he gets much more than a 1 year deal and I doubt he gets very much, b/c frankly he's not worth very much, he's one who should have also taken the QO as he never really had much of a market being a DH mostly 1B occasionally type

If someone is truly willing to give him more than 1 year, so be it, but if he can be had for the rest of this season, then go for it for a 1 year deal 5-7 million should get it done

You are right, the pitching is the biggest problem and thats not likely to round itself out without some people getting healthy and Lewis getting himself squared away again (if he does at all)

If I were negotiating contracts and I'm obviously not so it matters none, I would offer Morales 4 million for the rest of the season and a 10 million dollar player option for 2015 which in a way balances it out for this year and a full year next year. Gives him the option if he stinks it up in a half season to be secured next season to prove he can perform during a full season or if he does well he can see what the open market offers

 

[jta4437]

I think if he gets a year and the amount your talking we better lock him up but if that happens, him holding out was a complete failure. I mean even Cruz got $8M when he had doubters and a draft pick tied to him for a year deal and here we are talking about a 1.6ish year deal for even less without a pick involved.

I was talking about 5-7 for the rest of the year, not prorated, and I'm being VERY generous (in my mind)

But him not taking the QO WAS a complete failure, he never had any to much value, once the Mariners put the QO to him it only made sense to go back to Seattle, b/c no team was going to pay him what he wanted AND give up a draft pick to do so

He is what he is, a solid bat with a little pop and not a lot of walks that can't play defense and when he does its 1B, that doesn't hold much value in the scheme of things

Difference is that Cruz actually does play a little OF, not well, but he does play the OF and probably provides a bit more power potential than Morales, as much as I bash Cruz for his decision making, Morales is even worse, he's just not that good and only helps a team in need of an extra bat that doesn't already have a permanent DH type

 

[jta4437]

If I were negotiating contracts and I'm obviously not so it matters none, I would offer Morales 4 million for the rest of the season and a 10 million dollar player option for 2015 which in a way balances it out for this year and a full year next year. Gives him the option if he stinks it up in a half season to be secured next season to prove he can perform during a full season or if he does well he can see what the open market offers

The uncertainty of Fielder is the only thing that makes that player option make sense for next year, otherwise you have 3 1B/DH types cluttering up the roster