Is Osweiler the new Matt Flynn/Matt Cassel?

[MHSL82]

I don't know how much of the mentoring Manning gave to him soaked in

I remember him answering reporters twice in a dramatic I have come of age manner that he never wasted a minute from learning from Manning. It was clear that he thought Manning's days were over and he had made it. It's funny that the more a QB acts like they are the shit, the more I know they will underwhelm or flop. I like the QBs that seem to act like they've been there before and have something more to prove. Don't get me wrong, one shouldn't be a mouse - I like confidence, I like celebrations from emotional passion for a win, but the "I have made it" I see from a Troy Smith, Osweiller, etc. is annoying.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

It's not that he's not Tom Brady, it's that he's playing worse than the guy they ran out of town the previous season.

True, but the guy they ran out of town knew the system, vet QB with a lot more starts.

 

[Broncos6482]

True, but the guy they ran out of town knew the system, vet QB with a lot more starts.

Right, but they dumped that guy because he wasn't good enough, and instead dumped a truckload of money on Osweiler's doorstep without even meeting him. And his problem goes far beyond not always knowing the scheme: right now he's ridiculously inaccurate. He never was very accurate on deep passes in Denver, and that problem seems to have gotten worse in Houston. Monday night he had a tight end break wide open on a swing pass (I mean Denver blew the coverage, he was completely uncovered), should have been an easy completion and a big gain, Osweiler throws it well behind the receiver.

Add in that his pocket presence is bad (although that actually seemed a little better to me than last year), he's constantly getting passes knocked down at the line, and oh yeah he had the worst fumble we've seen since Mark Sanchez butt fumbled his way out of New York, and yeah, it's not looking good for Brock.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Right, but they dumped that guy because he wasn't good enough, and instead dumped a truckload of money on Osweiler's doorstep without even meeting him. And his problem goes far beyond not always knowing the scheme: right now he's ridiculously inaccurate. He never was very accurate on deep passes in Denver, and that problem seems to have gotten worse in Houston. Monday night he had a tight end break wide open on a swing pass (I mean Denver blew the coverage, he was completely uncovered), should have been an easy completion and a big gain, Osweiler throws it well behind the receiver.

Add in that his pocket presence is bad (although that actually seemed a little better to me than last year), he's constantly getting passes knocked down at the line, and oh yeah he had the worst fumble we've seen since Mark Sanchez butt fumbled his way out of New York, and yeah, it's not looking good for Brock.

I've seen a couple of HOU's games this yr, I don't have a defense for Osweiler's performance...we agree there 100%.

I know it matters, but the money aside...my angle here is HOU went out and signed a QB to start for them that had less than 10 career starts in the NFL...new team, new system, unproven starter, they're getting a predictable result is all I"m saying.

 

[Broncos6482]

I've seen a couple of HOU's games this yr, I don't have a defense for Osweiler's performance...we agree there 100%.

I know it matters, but the money aside...my angle here is HOU went out and signed a QB to start for them that had less than 10 career starts in the NFL...new team, new system, unproven starter, they're getting a predictable result is all I"m saying.

Oh I agree with you. They screwed up big time.

You may or may not remember, but I think CD and I were the two Broncos fans that were pretty skeptical of giving Brock $18 million a year. Personally, I had serious reservations of his ability to be a good NFL starting quarterback. And honestly, he seems to be getting worse.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Oh I agree with you. They screwed up big time.

You may or may not remember, but I think CD and I were the two Broncos fans that were pretty skeptical of giving Brock $18 million a year. Personally, I had serious reservations of his ability to be a good NFL starting quarterback. And honestly, he seems to be getting worse.

He didn't look terrible in his 7 games starting last year, but clearly was not doing enough to keep a future HOFer on the bench either. I trust that Kubiak and the support staff around him he would be better than he's been in HOU, but this was a very easy decision for Elway to make...there's no way he was worth what HOU paid him.

Signing and unproven QB AND overpaying them...This is the kind of move that should get you fired in the NFL...because of the circumstances I mentioned earlier, idt I would fire them this season, but if Os doesn't get his game turned around by the end of the year and show marked improvement next yr, O'Brien and the GM should both be gone from HOU after next season if they last the season.

 

[cdumler7]

He didn't look terrible in his 7 games starting last year, but clearly was not doing enough to keep a future HOFer on the bench either. I trust that Kubiak and the support staff around him he would be better than he's been in HOU, but this was a very easy decision for Elway to make...there's no way he was worth what HOU paid him.

Signing and unproven QB AND overpaying them...This is the kind of move that should get you fired in the NFL...because of the circumstances I mentioned earlier, idt I would fire them this season, but if Os doesn't get his game turned around by the end of the year and show marked improvement next yr, O'Brien and the GM should both be gone from HOU after next season if they last the season.

I would say he played pretty bad last year for the Broncos. He had a couple of decent to good games and then 5 at best average to bad games. He would play bad for a big chunk of the game but would all of a sudden have a couple of drives where he looked competent to then shrink back to what he looked like before. Now depending on your thoughts on the guy you either saw the 2 drives that were great and saw the promise in the kid or you looked at the rest of the game and realized this guy is a bottom tier starting QB in the NFL. And that has continued with the Texans. He has a couple of nice drives a game but the rest of it he looks like possibly the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Now I know some on here said that us Bronco fans didn't understand the QB market when we said the Broncos would try to sign Osweiler for $10-12 million a year but honestly I think that evaluation was spot on with what he is actually worth. Just because a team was willing to pay him $18 million doesn't mean that is what he is actually worth. He was a guy I wanted another year or two to see what he had but he still had a ton to prove as we are seeing this year.

Having said all that I do expect he will improve as the year goes on. It is pretty obvious that he, O'Brien, and the entire offense are completely out of sync. O'Brien's system from what I understand is one of the more complicated ones in the entire league so we won't really know Osweiler's true ability until next year in my opinion.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I would say he played pretty bad last year for the Broncos. He had a couple of decent to good games and then 5 at best average to bad games. He would play bad for a big chunk of the game but would all of a sudden have a couple of drives where he looked competent to then shrink back to what he looked like before. Now depending on your thoughts on the guy you either saw the 2 drives that were great and saw the promise in the kid or you looked at the rest of the game and realized this guy is a bottom tier starting QB in the NFL. And that has continued with the Texans. He has a couple of nice drives a game but the rest of it he looks like possibly the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Now I know some on here said that us Bronco fans didn't understand the QB market when we said the Broncos would try to sign Osweiler for $10-12 million a year but honestly I think that evaluation was spot on with what he is actually worth. Just because a team was willing to pay him $18 million doesn't mean that is what he is actually worth. He was a guy I wanted another year or two to see what he had but he still had a ton to prove as we are seeing this year.

Having said all that I do expect he will improve as the year goes on. It is pretty obvious that he, O'Brien, and the entire offense are completely out of sync. O'Brien's system from what I understand is one of the more complicated ones in the entire league so we won't really know Osweiler's true ability until next year in my opinion.

Typical play of a talented but unproven QB...inconsistent.

This is a pivotal period for the Texans...I agree Osweiler will get better as the season goes along and should be a lot better next yr...while I did say O'Brien/Rick Smith (GM) could and probably should be fired next yr if he doesn't improve, that could send the franchise in a tail spin.

 

[cdumler7]

Typical play of a talented but unproven QB...inconsistent.

This is a pivotal period for the Texans...I agree Osweiler will get better as the season goes along and should be a lot better next yr...while I did say O'Brien/Rick Smith (GM) could and probably should be fired next yr if he doesn't improve, that could send the franchise in a tail spin.

Well if they don't watch out Tennessee could pass them here pretty quick and the Texans miss the playoffs. That race looks much tougher this year. Still not great teams but a closer race to the finish. If they miss the playoffs after spending so big on a QB yeah I could see them possibly getting fired. Those are the type of make or break moves that coaches/GM's stake their reputation on. Going to be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Believe me I actually like Osweiler. I thought in Denver with him knowing the system that he would be a decent QB. I never viewed him as a top-10 type QB but that next tier I think he can get into that group. I don't think O'Brien's system is a good fit for him. Osweiler is trying to be Peyton Manning when there just are not many people that can process information like him. Osweiler needed a system that allowed him to move out of the pocket some, have a strong run game to develop the play action, and then attack that 10-20 yard area with maybe 2-3 reads at most on a given play. That is what Kubiak's scheme is and why so many QB's have found great success in his system compared to anywhere else. It is a QB friendly scheme but Osweiler wanted one where the whole system flowed through him. Well he got it and we are seeing that right now that is maybe too much for him to handle. They need to simplify at least for this season. Don't mix in all of these option routes where QB and WR have to see the exact same thing for it to work.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Well if they don't watch out Tennessee could pass them here pretty quick and the Texans miss the playoffs. That race looks much tougher this year. Still not great teams but a closer race to the finish. If they miss the playoffs after spending so big on a QB yeah I could see them possibly getting fired. Those are the type of make or break moves that coaches/GM's stake their reputation on. Going to be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Believe me I actually like Osweiler. I thought in Denver with him knowing the system that he would be a decent QB. I never viewed him as a top-10 type QB but that next tier I think he can get into that group. I don't think O'Brien's system is a good fit for him. Osweiler is trying to be Peyton Manning when there just are not many people that can process information like him. Osweiler needed a system that allowed him to move out of the pocket some, have a strong run game to develop the play action, and then attack that 10-20 yard area with maybe 2-3 reads at most on a given play. That is what Kubiak's scheme is and why so many QB's have found great success in his system compared to anywhere else. It is a QB friendly scheme but Osweiler wanted one where the whole system flowed through him. Well he got it and we are seeing that right now that is maybe too much for him to handle. They need to simplify at least for this season. Don't mix in all of these option routes where QB and WR have to see the exact same thing for it to work.

I'm liking that TN squad and called at the beginning of the year in terms of them being improved (projected 6-10) ...They can run it, and that will keep the DEF honest and when Mariota is clicking he is a dangerous QB, the old geezer has that DEF playing okay...they can get after the QB...CBs are not playoff caliber but I can see them hanging around but maybe not winning the DIV. The next 3 games (@ SD, GB, @ IND) are really going to show what they are made of...I can see them losing all 3.

Broadening this out a bit...WTF with JAX?...they've gone off the rails...of the 2 big spenders in FA (OAK and JAX) I thought OAK might be legit...still early, but so far JAX is heading towards hitting the redo button.

Back to Os...I would thought he would struggle from the word go...he looked okay and I kind of backtracked on that, but he's resorted to what thought initially so I'm come full circle on him....If O'Brien doesn't survive this and it might take making the playoffs for him to survive it...do they dare go after another NE OC...Josh McDaniels?

 

[cdumler7]

I'm liking that TN squad and called at the beginning of the year in terms of them being improved (projected 6-10) ...They can run it, and that will keep the DEF honest and when Mariota is clicking he is a dangerous QB, the old geezer has that DEF playing okay...they can get after the QB...CBs are not playoff caliber but I can see them hanging around but maybe not winning the DIV. The next 3 games (@ SD, GB, @ IND) are really going to show what they are made of...I can see them losing all 3.

Broadening this out a bit...WTF with JAX?...they've gone off the rails...of the 2 big spenders in FA (OAK and JAX) I thought OAK might be legit...still early, but so far JAX is heading towards hitting the redo button.

Back to Os...I would thought he would struggle from the word go...he looked okay and I kind of backtracked on that, but he's resorted to what thought initially so I'm come full circle on him....If O'Brien doesn't survive this and it might take making the playoffs for him to survive it...do they dare go after another NE OC...Josh McDaniels?

Yeah I really like this TN squad. I actually said before the season that they could surprise some people. They play a brand of football that not many teams do with the smash mouth run it down your throats style. Most teams have built their team to stop the pass not the run so you can actually find decent success running the football against these smaller defenses. I also like Mariota. I never viewed him as a top-3 type QB but I thought he could become a top-10 type guy. He is taking care of the football and making some very nice passes. I honestly have no clue how this AFC South will shake out.

And yeah Jacksonville has been a mess. I still can't believe Gus didn't get fired today. They have talent on both sides of the ball and shouldn't be looking this bad.

As for O'Brien/McDaniels I'm thinking they will go a different way. McDaniels will be a hot commodity this off season but he runs pretty much the exact same system as O'Brien that Osweiler is struggling with. I would think you would want to bring in a coach that better fits with the skill set of Osweiler. Problem is Osweiler views himself as that pocket passer in the mold of Brady or Manning so have to see how that relationship goes. A guy that probably won't be available but I think would be a good fit would be Hue Jackson. I think his scheme would fit well with that Texans team. Not sure if Cleveland will give up on him after one terrible season or not though.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Yeah I really like this TN squad. I actually said before the season that they could surprise some people. They play a brand of football that not many teams do with the smash mouth run it down your throats style. Most teams have built their team to stop the pass not the run so you can actually find decent success running the football against these smaller defenses. I also like Mariota. I never viewed him as a top-3 type QB but I thought he could become a top-10 type guy. He is taking care of the football and making some very nice passes. I honestly have no clue how this AFC South will shake out.

And yeah Jacksonville has been a mess. I still can't believe Gus didn't get fired today. They have talent on both sides of the ball and shouldn't be looking this bad.

As for O'Brien/McDaniels I'm thinking they will go a different way. McDaniels will be a hot commodity this off season but he runs pretty much the exact same system as O'Brien that Osweiler is struggling with. I would think you would want to bring in a coach that better fits with the skill set of Osweiler. Problem is Osweiler views himself as that pocket passer in the mold of Brady or Manning so have to see how that relationship goes. A guy that probably won't be available but I think would be a good fit would be Hue Jackson. I think his scheme would fit well with that Texans team. Not sure if Cleveland will give up on him after one terrible season or not though.

TN...I remember Mularkey on Cowher's staff...solid but not spectacular...built in the mold of DAL just not as much talent...I like what they are doing as well.

AFCS...I don't either really, but something tells me that IND will pull it out in the end if HOU continues on this path. After those 3 I mentioned, TN has DEN and KC...will be hard for them to post 9 wins.

JAX...stage was just too big imo...OAK has been crawling a little longer and now starting to walk...playing with expectations is a learned thing imo and JAX is not there yet. I'm sure they are pressing in that locker room...especially Bortles.

McDaniels...good point. They do different thing imo, McDaniels is a strong mismatch creator, but they are from the same tree.

 

[cdumler7]

TN...I remember Mularkey on Cowher's staff...solid but not spectacular...built in the mold of DAL just not as much talent...I like what they are doing as well.

AFCS...I don't either really, but something tells me that IND will pull it out in the end if HOU continues on this path. After those 3 I mentioned, TN has DEN and KC...will be hard for them to post 9 wins.

JAX...stage was just too big imo...OAK has been crawling a little longer and now starting to walk...playing with expectations is a learned thing imo and JAX is not there yet. I'm sure they are pressing in that locker room...especially Bortles.

McDaniels...good point. They do different thing imo, McDaniels is a strong mismatch creator, but they are from the same tree.

O'Brien's system is a bit different but I would say that has more to do with personnel than anything. The Patriots highlight the TE's where the Texans try to highlight Hopkins. O'Brien's system also tries to attack further down the field but again I would put that towards the talent he has and their skill set compared to that of the Patriots. Both systems though are very complicated and need a highly intelligent QB to run it. Right now I just don't think Osweiler is that type of QB and I'm not sure the players he is working with fit that either as the WR's have to be able to read a defense at a high caliber rate.

I'm going to go with Indy as well. Luck is having an outstanding season and I think they can do enough to maybe win 5-6 more games this year getting them to that 9 win area. I think they might shock some people by how well they play against the Chiefs. I have the Chiefs winning but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Colts pull out a surprise win this weekend. Divisional games will be huge for them. Can't lose to teams like the Jaguars and Titans down the home stretch.

 

[Dude]

To answer the OP question, nope. Cassell proved Brady is a system QB.
Osweiler has only proven that he was riding the gravy train in Denver.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

O'Brien's system is a bit different but I would say that has more to do with personnel than anything. The Patriots highlight the TE's where the Texans try to highlight Hopkins. O'Brien's system also tries to attack further down the field but again I would put that towards the talent he has and their skill set compared to that of the Patriots. Both systems though are very complicated and need a highly intelligent QB to run it. Right now I just don't think Osweiler is that type of QB and I'm not sure the players he is working with fit that either as the WR's have to be able to read a defense at a high caliber rate.

I'm going to go with Indy as well. Luck is having an outstanding season and I think they can do enough to maybe win 5-6 more games this year getting them to that 9 win area. I think they might shock some people by how well they play against the Chiefs. I have the Chiefs winning but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Colts pull out a surprise win this weekend. Divisional games will be huge for them. Can't lose to teams like the Jaguars and Titans down the home stretch.

Agree...McDaniels also attacks LB in coverage a lot more with formation and the slot WR....JAX might be calling McDaniels...We'll have re-visit this further down the road and see if Osweiler steps it up.

IND...you hate to hear the GM out in the media whining about a contract holding back talent (basically trying to save his ass), but I feel as long as the OL protects him the cream will eventually rise to the top in Luck.

 

[cdumler7]

Agree...McDaniels also attacks LB in coverage a lot more with formation and the slot WR....JAX might be calling McDaniels...We'll have re-visit this further down the road and see if Osweiler steps it up.

IND...you hate to hear the GM out in the media whining about a contract holding back talent (basically trying to save his ass), but I feel as long as the OL protects him the cream will eventually rise to the top in Luck.

You would think that would be actually a knock on himself since he approved the contract happening. I would also add not like he did much when the team didn't have to pay Luck an arm and a leg.

What is funny to me with the Colts is that Irsay talked about the reason they were letting Manning walk was that he could put up a ton of stats but the team only won one Super Bowl and that his team was going to be about winning Super Bowls. Well so far all we have seen is exactly what we saw when Manning was at the helm. We have seen them spend big on over the hill players, on the skill positions, and draft players that most would consider a huge reach early on. So maybe Manning wasn't the problem but my guess is Irsay's ego is too big to admit that he is part of the problem not part of the solution.

Jacksonville and McDaniels I think would be a great combination. Gives him a good young QB (although not playing that way this year) and plenty of young talent to build up. Also he would be going to an easier division so could find early success. I would think if Pagano gets fired from the Colts that might be another place but I wonder if he would want to work with Irsay.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

You would think that would be actually a knock on himself since he approved the contract happening. I would also add not like he did much when the team didn't have to pay Luck an arm and a leg.

What is funny to me with the Colts is that Irsay talked about the reason they were letting Manning walk was that he could put up a ton of stats but the team only won one Super Bowl and that his team was going to be about winning Super Bowls. Well so far all we have seen is exactly what we saw when Manning was at the helm. We have seen them spend big on over the hill players, on the skill positions, and draft players that most would consider a huge reach early on. So maybe Manning wasn't the problem but my guess is Irsay's ego is too big to admit that he is part of the problem not part of the solution.

Jacksonville and McDaniels I think would be a great combination. Gives him a good young QB (although not playing that way this year) and plenty of young talent to build up. Also he would be going to an easier division so could find early success. I would think if Pagano gets fired from the Colts that might be another place but I wonder if he would want to work with Irsay.

You would think that, but what he's really trying to say is the franchise QB market is getting out of control. In a hard cap environment it's common knowledge spending heavily on one position effect the talent overall, but DEN just won a SB with a high priced QB, NE, PIT, GB are legit contenders. It's not easy, but he's just looking for a crutch to come out the media with it.

IND has done some strange stuff in the draft....yeah they thought they were closer then they really were when they went and picked up Gore and Johnson...back fired.

I thought McDaniels thought he was smarter than everybody else and had too much control in DEN...I think he'll do much better this time around.

 

[cdumler7]

You would think that, but what he's really trying to say is the franchise QB market is getting out of control. In a hard cap environment it's common knowledge spending heavily on one position effect the talent overall, but DEN just won a SB with a high priced QB, NE, PIT, GB are legit contenders. It's not easy, but he's just looking for a crutch to come out the media with it.

IND has done some strange stuff in the draft....yeah they thought they were closer then they really were when they went and picked up Gore and Johnson...back fired.

I thought McDaniels thought he was smarter than everybody else and had too much control in DEN...I think he'll do much better this time around.

McDaniels from what I understand listening to past players said there really was no one smarter than him in the room. His knowledge of the game was just down right impressive. McDaniels had 3 major problems though. 1) He expected others to know just as much as him. So the players would get the gameplan for the week and it would be ridiculously large. Most teams put in 20-30 new plays on top of what they usually call on any given week depending on the opponent. With McDaniels we are talking a new 100-150 plays the players would be expected to know.

2) He wasn't willing to listen to anyone else. Instead of learning to trust his coordinators he would pretty much take over and run all 3 areas of the team. It is why our DC left because the two just couldn't agree and McDaniels pretty much pulled the "I'm the Head Coach so what I say goes" card.

3) He would not qualify as a players' coach. Now you don't have to be one to win but he would berate his players every chance he got and it reached a point that his players didn't even want to talk to him.

Now yes in Denver part of the problem was he was given way too much power from the get go. He needed more oversight. The best thing that McDaniels could do is have a GM he knows he has to answer to and actually who has final say. This person needs to be somebody he highly respects and is actually willing to listen to. And then of course hire Coordinators that he can actually trust to do their job. IF he continues down the path that he did with the Broncos he will burn out in less than 10 years. No coach can take on all that McDaniels tried to in Denver.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

McDaniels from what I understand listening to past players said there really was no one smarter than him in the room. His knowledge of the game was just down right impressive. McDaniels had 3 major problems though. 1) He expected others to know just as much as him. So the players would get the gameplan for the week and it would be ridiculously large. Most teams put in 20-30 new plays on top of what they usually call on any given week depending on the opponent. With McDaniels we are talking a new 100-150 plays the players would be expected to know.

2) He wasn't willing to listen to anyone else. Instead of learning to trust his coordinators he would pretty much take over and run all 3 areas of the team. It is why our DC left because the two just couldn't agree and McDaniels pretty much pulled the "I'm the Head Coach so what I say goes" card.

3) He would not qualify as a players' coach. Now you don't have to be one to win but he would berate his players every chance he got and it reached a point that his players didn't even want to talk to him.

Now yes in Denver part of the problem was he was given way too much power from the get go. He needed more oversight. The best thing that McDaniels could do is have a GM he knows he has to answer to and actually who has final say. This person needs to be somebody he highly respects and is actually willing to listen to. And then of course hire Coordinators that he can actually trust to do their job. IF he continues down the path that he did with the Broncos he will burn out in less than 10 years. No coach can take on all that McDaniels tried to in Denver.

Believable.

I just think any HC that thought Tebow was a 1st rd talent at QB was trying to say I know more than everyone else...this time around I think he'll be a little more wise.

In terms of the HC/GM relationship...I think it's best the GM has the final say on the draft because you can't have 15 voices in the room, but the HC has the final say on the 53...that kind of forces them them to work together.

We'll see where he ends up, but it's starting to look as if he'll get another shot.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

You would think that, but what he's really trying to say is the franchise QB market is getting out of control. In a hard cap environment it's common knowledge spending heavily on one position effect the talent overall, but DEN just won a SB with a high priced QB, NE, PIT, GB are legit contenders. It's not easy, but he's just looking for a crutch to come out the media with it.

IND has done some strange stuff in the draft....yeah they thought they were closer then they really were when they went and picked up Gore and Johnson...back fired.

I thought McDaniels thought he was smarter than everybody else and had too much control in DEN...I think he'll do much better this time around.

Maybe it is but nobody effects the game anywhere close to a QB.

Indy has been bad in the draft and FA/trades and I do think they are trying to use the Luck deal as a crutch when that isn't the issue.

Last year Indy had more cap tied up in their defense than any other team in the league. And that was not a defense that helps you get to the playoffs, but one that helps you miss the post-season.



Like you say, Denver spent a lot on their QB position and put together a pretty solid defense with it.


The saints cap space used on offense is the 2nd least in the NFL, 25 mil less than Chicago, 32 million less than Washington (only Browns are less). And including the dead money of their defensive guys no longer with the team/in the league, one of the biggest spenders of their cap in the NFL on defense. Where the $ is going isn't their issue. Who they are spending it on is.

Spending it on Luck and Brees is smart. Spending it on Trent Cole and Junior Galette is not.