POLL Is Greinke a HOF?

[blstoker]

I don't either. The problem with both of them is that they don't have enough wins. Greinke only has 187 wins and is 35. Hard to imagine him getting to 250 wins much 300. Felix is a few years younger but has fewer wins and seems to have deteriorated significantly.

Starting pitchers with fewer than 300 wins rarely make the Hall. Pitchers with fewer than 250 wins almost never make the Hall. IIRC, the only pitchers in the Hall with fewer than 250 wins that were exclusively starters are Sandy Koufax and Pedro. Now that may change as we move forward and 250 may become the new 300 win standard. But right now I don't think we are there.

Of the top 5 active leaders in wins - Verlander is the only one I think is close, and I'm not sold on him entirely as being a HoFer, though he has a solid post season record as well. The only pitcher that is active right now that I think would be in the Hall of Fame if he retired today is Kershaw.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I don't either. The problem with both of them is that they don't have enough wins. Greinke only has 187 wins and is 35. Hard to imagine him getting to 250 wins much 300. Felix is a few years younger but has fewer wins and seems to have deteriorated significantly.

Starting pitchers with fewer than 300 wins rarely make the Hall. Pitchers with fewer than 250 wins almost never make the Hall. IIRC, the only pitchers in the Hall with fewer than 250 wins that were exclusively starters are Sandy Koufax and Pedro. Now that may change as we move forward and 250 may become the new 300 win standard. But right now I don't think we are there.

The thing is, we don't know what the HOF standards are for this particular era (say, past 10-15 years), because not only has the pitching changed (more bullpen, leading to less decisions), but the HOF voting base is changing (younger and more sabermetric friendly writers are coming in).

I think the newer crop of writers will be less concerned with milestone numbers and more with where the pitcher ranked during their time, but it's still too early to tell.

The first real test of this recent era will be Halladay and whether he gets in first ballot.

 

[flyerhawk]

The thing is, we don't know what the HOF standards are for this particular era (say, past 10-15 years), because not only has the pitching changed (more bullpen, leading to less decisions), but the HOF voting base is changing (younger and more sabermetric friendly writers are coming in).

I think the newer crop of writers will be less concerned with milestone numbers and more with where the pitcher ranked during their time, but it's still too early to tell.

The first real test of this recent era will be Halladay and whether he gets in first ballot.

The Hall of Fame voters have shown themselves to be remarkably stubborn. I guess I need to see them break tradition before I believe they will.

Halladay is an interesting one because he won 2 Cy Youngs. IIRC, no non-PED pitcher that has won 2 or more Cy Youngs has not made it into the Hall. But he also only has 203 wins.

 

[StanMarsh51]

The Hall of Fame voters have shown themselves to be remarkably stubborn. I guess I need to see them break tradition before I believe they will.

Halladay is an interesting one because he won 2 Cy Youngs. IIRC, no non-PED pitcher that has won 2 or more Cy Youngs has not made it into the Hall. But he also only has 203 wins.

Johan Santana, Bret Saberhagen and Denny McLain each have 2 Cy's and didn't make the HOF. Lincecum also has 2, and certainly won't make it when he's on the ballot.

Granted, Halladay has more wins than all of them (Saberhagen is next closest in the group with 167 wins), but I think he'll do well in the voting with the newert crop of voters, but the older voters may keep him out for at least the first few years.

I think a good idea of the voting trends occured with Mussina - when they changed the voting rules, Mussina's voting percentage jumped from 24% to 44% in a single year after they did the voter purge and got rid of many of the older voters. To the average older guy, Mussina's not a HOFer, but to the younger sabermetric-friendly crowd, he is.

 

[flyerhawk]

Johan Santana, Bret Saberhagen and Denny McLain each have 2 Cy's and didn't make the HOF. Lincecum also has 2, and certainly won't make it when he's on the ballot.

Granted, Halladay has more wins than all of them (Saberhagen is next closest in the group with 167 wins), but I think he'll do well in the voting with the newert crop of voters, but the older voters may keep him out for at least the first few years.

I think a good idea of the voting trends occured with Mussina - when they changed the voting rules, Mussina's voting percentage jumped from 24% to 44% in a single year after they did the voter purge and got rid of many of the older voters. To the average older guy, Mussina's not a HOFer, but to the younger sabermetric-friendly crowd, he is.

IMO, Mussina is a really weak Sabre guy and has a better argument because of his win count. He's the new Bert Blyleven.

 

[StanMarsh51]

IMO, Mussina is a really weak Sabre guy and has a better argument because of his win count. He's the new Bert Blyleven.

I think Mussina's hurt with traditional voters/stats because he played much of his career when 300 wins was still a thing (5 pitchers won their 300th game during Mussina's career), but he fell short, won no Cy's, never won a ring, had an ERA near 3.70.

With the sabermetric crowd, Mussina's ERA+ is high quality (higher than HOFers like Glavine, Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, and slightly below Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson), and his WAR of 83.6 is top 25 of all time for pitchers.


I do agree with the Bert Blyleven comparison....both were hurt by their lack of milestones/awards and should've easily been HOFers instead of waiting years (Blyleven took 14 years to get in and Mussina's about to be on his 6th ballot).

 

[navamind]

Probably... Felix really doesn't have the elite seasons...

I don't know about that... a 2.27 ERA while leading the AL in innings in 2010 is pretty elite if you ask me. His 2.49 ERA in 238.2 innings the year before isn't too shabby either, neither is his 2.14 ERA in 236 innings in 2014.

I don't think those seasons are enough to put him in the HOF, but I think it's pretty fair to classify those seasons as "elite".

 

[Tidergirl]

Hes not a sure thing. He heas 3-4 More solid years and yes he has a goid shot.