Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[dtgold88]

The 'under-performing' young players after 1 season would have more appeal than Mayfield to a lot of HCs and fan bases. Regardless of performance, all of those rookies would have higher trade values. Being better prior to the 2022 season isn't really a measuring stick.

For the simple fact they are on affordable rookie deals for anywhere from 2-4 more years no doubt they have higher trade values right now. As you said...performance wouldn't even matter. Hell, even if Baker rebounds and plays well they still might (though performance would matter a little more on their part) since to keep Baker at that point it might cost more than someone would want to pay as he's so inconsistent.

 

[Manster7588]

My point is that there are twelve teams out there who may not have anybody better than Mayfield starting for them. A lot of those guys are placeholders or second-year guys with upside, but twelve is a lot.

On the other side of the scale, about twelve teams have guys starting for them that Mayfield could never touch.

OK, my point is you need more than one season to grade a player, and I'm better Lawrence takes a large leap forward.

 

[Manster7588]

OK, my point is you need more than one season to grade a player, and I'm better* Lawrence takes a large leap forward.

* betting

 

[HaroldSeattle]

My point is that there are twelve teams out there who may not have anybody better than Mayfield starting for them. A lot of those guys are placeholders or second-year guys with upside, but twelve is a lot.

On the other side of the scale, about twelve teams have guys starting for them that Mayfield could never touch.

Best season being QB 18 is a low bar. I’d rather bet on a rookie who hasn’t reach that yet but has the potential to blow that bar away. After four season Mayfield has come up very short, he has this season to turn that around but I don’t expect that to happen.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Let's stay on topic, there are three kinds of busts in this world.

 

[jarntt]

What is this great 2020 season people keep pointing to for Baker? In 2020 he was:

18th in passing yards
Tied for 12th with four guys in TD passes
Very Good but not amazing at 8 Ints
17th in yards per attempt
30th in completion %
Tied with Gardner Minshaw at 15th best QB rating

And all of this with the top ranked (according to PFF) OL in the league and the 3rd best rushing offense in the league. Which basically mean he was in a great position and better have been at least or much better than NFL average if you want to be seen as having a good year. In what everyone is pointing to as this "great" year he was basically an average 2020 starting QB because of how many other good years there were that year.

 

[dtgold88]

Best season being QB 18 is a low bar. I’d rather bet on a rookie who hasn’t reach that yet but has the potential to blow that bar away. After four season Mayfield has come up very short, he has this season to turn that around but I don’t expect that to happen.

No doubt he has fallen short of what you'd want from the #1 pick but best season #18? He was 10 per QBR and PFF in 2020.

 

[dtgold88]

What is this great 2020 season people keep pointing to for Baker? In 2020 he was:

18th in passing yards
Tied for 12th with four guys in TD passes
Very Good but not amazing at 8 Ints
17th in yards per attempt
30th in completion %
Tied with Gardner Minshaw at 15th best QB rating

And all of this with the top ranked (according to PFF) OL in the league and the 3rd best rushing offense in the league. Which basically mean he was in a great position and better have been at least or much better than NFL average if you want to be seen as having a good year. In what everyone is pointing to as this "great" year he was basically an average 2020 starting QB because of how many other good years there were that year.

PFF takes everything into account, including the help he gets and ranked him 10. In addition, at best his WRs were average. Do you really put passer rating ahead of QBR in grading a QB?

Just curious...since you will make excuses for why he played well will you do the same for why he struggled? Like a bunch of injuries, one needing surgery......missing his RT most of the season.........LT hurt entire year (but played)......... the backups for the RT also being out........Both RBs missing a bunch of games.......receivers being below average AND the best of the below avg. bunch being out for a good part of the year?

 

[wilwhite]

The 'under-performing' young players after 1 season would have more appeal than Mayfield to a lot of HCs and fan bases. Regardless of performance, all of those rookies would have higher trade values. Being better prior to the 2022 season isn't really a measuring stick.

The Niners rolling with Lance and shopping Garoppolo definitely supports that position.

Mayfield may be the 15th-best QB in the league, but that only eases the pressure to find a better one, it doesn't really remove it.

 

[jarntt]

PFF takes everything into account, including the help he gets and ranked him 10. In addition, at best his WRs were average. Do you really put passer rating ahead of QBR in grading a QB?

Just curious...since you will make excuses for why he played well will you do the same for why he struggled? Like a bunch of injuries, one needing surgery......missing his RT most of the season.........LT hurt entire year (but played)......... the backups for the RT also being out........Both RBs missing a bunch of games.......receivers being below average AND the best of the below avg. bunch being out for a good part of the year?

I've read over and over how great he was in 2020 (including in this thread this morning) so I looked again and looked at how his stats compared to other QBs that specific year. He was pretty much average for a starting QB that year. Clearly, you are as always, the one with the agenda who has no objectivity and looks at everything with a lens that says you must defend any perceived slight against your team. I'm just presenting stats. Nothing else. I provided the most commonly used stats to rank QBs to avoid any impressions of leading the discussion in any way because I was curious and looked at them and then saw they told a different story than what we keep reading here. QB Rating is a much more widely used stat than QBR at this time. I can't help it if you don't like what those stats show.

I didn't look at other years but since you want to bring up last year and a boat load of excuses I'll use the same items I did for 2020. PFF had the Browns OL ranked 9th last year which is still pretty damn good. Imagine if they were 25th how poorly he would have played? Also, your rushing offense was ranked 4th last year which is also great and incredibly helpful for a QB. As far as his labrum issue in his non-throwing shoulder I've said before I don't think that necessarily impacts a QB that much. Can it, absolutely. Does it definitely? No. I've had labrum issues for years now. If I were an NFL QB I would have had surgery on them both. I can't recall what the "bunch of other injuries were" so I can't comment on those. They certainly may relevant to his shitty season.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

No doubt he has fallen short of what you'd want from the #1 pick but best season #18? He was 10 per QBR and PFF in 2020.

Yup 18th according to ESPN right behind Bridgewater and just ahead of Daniel Jones so mediocre.

 

[dtgold88]

I've read over and over how great he was in 2020 (including in this thread this morning) so I looked again and looked at how his stats compared to other QBs that specific year. He was pretty much average for a starting QB that year. Clearly, you are as always, the one with the agenda who has no objectivity and looks at everything with a lens that says you must defend any perceived slight against your team. I'm just presenting stats. Nothing else. I provided the most commonly used stats to rank QBs to avoid any impressions of leading the discussion in any way because I was curious and looked at them and then saw they told a different story than what we keep reading here. QB Rating is a much more widely used stat than QBR at this time. I can't help it if you don't like what those stats show.

I didn't look at other years but since you want to bring up last year and a boat load of excuses I'll use the same items I did for 2020. PFF had the Browns OL ranked 9th last year which is still pretty damn good. Imagine if they were 25th how poorly he would have played? Also, your rushing offense was ranked 4th last year which is also great and incredibly helpful for a QB. As far as his labrum issue in his non-throwing shoulder I've said before I don't think that necessarily impacts a QB that much. Can it, absolutely. Does it definitely? No. I've had labrum issues for years now. If I were an NFL QB I would have had surgery on them both. I can't recall what the "bunch of other injuries were" so I can't comment on those. They certainly may relevant to his shitty season.

QBR grades every QB on every play and the QBs contribution to that play with no agenda. They ranked Baker #10 in 2020.

If a QB throws a ball right to the DB but he tips it to a RB who runs 80 yards, passer rating says the QB made a great play. You think that's a better way to gauge QB play than QBR which would not credit the QB at all for such a play?

I've also said his labrum issue was not solely responsible for all his problems, such as some of his bad decisions. Of course, I'm rational, objective and have no agenda. Though most players who commented said most players in all major sports would have shut it down with Baker's injury.

Also said Baker had an awful 2021 season.

May want to learn more about QBR before you compare it to passer rating as passer rating has become kind of antiquated (if you even know how it's measured)....

How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating

Although not perfect, the metric incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions. Check out what goes into the computations.

www.espn.com

"ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency."

 

[dtgold88]

View attachment 303023

Yup 18th according to ESPN right behind Bridgewater and just ahead of Daniel Jones so mediocre.

18th in yards. A bit more matters than yards in QB play. Like not turning it over, for instance? Unless you care about fantasy stats only? Click on INTs, Baker moves up pretty high. click QBR he will be top 10. Bridgewater and his 15 TDs and 11 INTs had a better season?

something else from the article on QBR which implies the O-line and other positions are factored in to their metric to not hurt or help the QB when figuring his rating....

"Finally, the per-play measure of efficiency is translated to a number on a 0-to-100 scale to produce a player’s Total QBR. The scaling process is a fairly standard logistic regression that produces a number that is easier to grasp. An average quarterback will have a QBR around 50, and a Pro Bowl-level player will have a QBR around 75 for the season. On a game level, however, a QBR of 75 means that holding all other factors constant (defense, offensive teammates, etc.), a quarterback’s team would be expected to win about 75 percent of time, given that level of QB play."

 

[wilwhite]

View attachment 303023

Yup 18th according to ESPN right behind Bridgewater and just ahead of Daniel Jones so mediocre.

Only Tannehill and Jones had fewer attempts, though. His passer rating was 13th.

But yeah, 13-to-18.

No statistic is perfect, but I like ANY/A, which is net yards per pass attempt and incorporates TDs, INTs and sacks/sack yardage.

Mayfield was #14 in 2018, #27 in 2019, #12 in 2020, and #15 in 2021 before he missed a game. (I'm discounting the rest of the season because I think he had no business playing.)

So yeah, I expect him to be mid-teens normally. He'll move down as young guys pass him and up as Brady and Rodgers and Ryan go away.

Leadership-wise I'd dock him a little as well.

Mayfield is a QB that could take an otherwise solid team to the playoffs, and maybe win a game, but if your team isn't already solid there's no point having him. He's not going to make up for any deficiencies.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

18th in yards. A bit more matters than yards in QB play. Like not turning it over, for instance? Unless you care about fantasy stats only? Click on INTs, Baker moves up pretty high. click QBR he will be top 10.

something else from the article on QBR which implies the O-line and other positions are factored in to their metric to not hurt or help the QB when figuring his rating....

"Finally, the per-play measure of efficiency is translated to a number on a 0-to-100 scale to produce a player’s Total QBR. The scaling process is a fairly standard logistic regression that produces a number that is easier to grasp. An average quarterback will have a QBR around 50, and a Pro Bowl-level player will have a QBR around 75 for the season. On a game level, however, a QBR of 75 means that holding all other factors constant (defense, offensive teammates, etc.), a quarterback’s team would be expected to win about 75 percent of time, given that level of QB play."

Mediocre in yards,mediocre in TDs= mediocre

 

[dtgold88]

Only Tannehill and Jones had fewer attempts, though. His passer rating was 13th.

But yeah, 13-to-18.

No statistic is perfect, but I like ANY/A, which is net yards per pass attempt and incorporates TDs, INTs and sacks/sack yardage.

Mayfield was #14 in 2018, #27 in 2019, #12 in 2020, and #15 in 2021 before he missed a game. (I'm discounting the rest of the season because I think he had no business playing.)

So yeah, I expect him to be mid-teens normally. He'll move down as young guys pass him and up as Brady and Rodgers and Ryan go away.

Leadership-wise I'd dock him a little as well.

Mayfield is a QB that could take an otherwise solid team to the playoffs, and maybe win a game, but if your team isn't already solid there's no point having him. He's not going to make up for any deficiencies.

While not perfect I'd say as far as incorporating everything and only crediting or blaming the QB for what he did and how he helped/hurt the team that QBR is the best one out there. What I also like is he might get more credit for a 7 yard pass on 3rd and 6 than he would a 10 yard completion on 3rd and 12.

 

[dtgold88]

Mediocre in yards,mediocre in TDs= mediocre

If all you care about is fantasy football, sure.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

If all you care about is fantasy football, sure.

To put in perspective last year Brady threw for over 5300 yards and 43 TDs

 

[dtgold88]

To put in perspective last year Brady threw for over 5300 yards and 43 TDs

cool.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

cool.

Indeed