Interesting Chart

[randymon]

I've said myself that I don't think Trevor has more upside than A.Smith but I certainly don't know that for sure. Considering he was basically a rookie last year, played with a bum shoulder for half season, had a very porous O line that was very inconsistent in run and pass pro game, you can't really give him a fair assessment or comparison with guys like Hoyer,Smith etc this early. First off, let's see how he does with a decent run attack and pass blk and healthy body. I saw the guy hit DT in stride with a perfect spiral ,low trajectory for 50 + yrds early in season. Means he's capable. The O line went to shit and even though it wasn't his throwing shldr he injured, it can have a effect on throwing deep ball especially. I will wait and see in preseason if he's 100% , how he looks. Zip on ball 20 + yds down field, consistency, accuracy etc. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Trevor surprises us all, anymore than Lynch wins job and excels beyond expectations either. Last year just isn't fair to really diagnose Trevors ceiling as a viable NFL starter and Lynch certainly hasn't done anything yet accept get a few " atta boys " in Otas and have a first rd pick attached to his name. We shall see.

 

[Mingo]

I've said myself that I don't think Trevor has more upside than A.Smith but I certainly don't know that for sure. Considering he was basically a rookie last year, played with a bum shoulder for half season, had a very porous O line that was very inconsistent in run and pass pro game, you can't really give him a fair assessment or comparison with guys like Hoyer,Smith etc this early. First off, let's see how he does with a decent run attack and pass blk and healthy body. I saw the guy hit DT in stride with a perfect spiral ,low trajectory for 50 + yrds early in season. Means he's capable. The O line went to shit and even though it wasn't his throwing shldr he injured, it can have a effect on throwing deep ball especially. I will wait and see in preseason if he's 100% , how he looks. Zip on ball 20 + yds down field, consistency, accuracy etc. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Trevor surprises us all, anymore than Lynch wins job and excels beyond expectations either. Last year just isn't fair to really diagnose Trevors ceiling as a viable NFL starter and Lynch certainly hasn't done anything yet accept get a few " atta boys " in Otas and have a first rd pick attached to his name. We shall see.

Yes - I do think there is a path to the starting job for Siemian - and his odds aren't terrible. It is pretty clear - the players like him.

 

[iknowftbll]

Charts like that are interesting but not compelling. Think about the number of QBs, even 1st rounders, who come and go in the league in a period of a 10-15 years. You can probably come up with more guys who have had modest careers at best than guys who became stars. That some of them couldn't beat out an "unaccomplished" QB in just their second year in the league means nothing to me. If Siemian gets the start in week 1 I'd consider that an endorsement of his abilities more so than a knock on Lynch's.

In my predictions for the season I made the assumption that Siemian would win the starting job. I do think he did well last year considering all the factors that were at play. With that said, I also recognize when there's a 1st round pick in line to take your spot, you have to make a compelling case for yourself. If the QB competition is close, even if it's close in Siemian's favor, the team will probably go with Lynch. That's the benefit of the doubt you get when you're a 1st round pick.

I have very little invested in either QB. I don't prefer one or the other, though I'll admit I love a good underdog story like Siemian's. The practical side of me also recognizes if Lynch wins the job but Siemian has a good preseason, his appeal as a trade option to a QB starved team would be tremendous. Assuming he's healthy, the team could allow Kelly to slide into the backup position.

 

[Dr Cyanide 28]

I've said myself that I don't think Trevor has more upside than A.Smith but I certainly don't know that for sure. Considering he was basically a rookie last year, played with a bum shoulder for half season, had a very porous O line that was very inconsistent in run and pass pro game, you can't really give him a fair assessment or comparison with guys like Hoyer,Smith etc this early. First off, let's see how he does with a decent run attack and pass blk and healthy body. I saw the guy hit DT in stride with a perfect spiral ,low trajectory for 50 + yrds early in season. Means he's capable. The O line went to shit and even though it wasn't his throwing shldr he injured, it can have a effect on throwing deep ball especially. I will wait and see in preseason if he's 100% , how he looks. Zip on ball 20 + yds down field, consistency, accuracy etc. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Trevor surprises us all, anymore than Lynch wins job and excels beyond expectations either. Last year just isn't fair to really diagnose Trevors ceiling as a viable NFL starter and Lynch certainly hasn't done anything yet accept get a few " atta boys " in Otas and have a first rd pick attached to his name. We shall see.

he's not as athletic as smith. smith is always underrated for what he can do in and out of the pocket.

 

[Dr Cyanide 28]

I'm now thinking a Gus Ferrotte. Gus a 7th round pick beat out Heath Schuler a 1st round pick and went on to have a decent career as a starter and backup.

that's not a bad comp
and personally i'm not saying the career arc is reflective, but rather their stature, arm strength, mobility, and overall skillset is very similar

 

[Dr Cyanide 28]

Charts like that are interesting but not compelling. Think about the number of QBs, even 1st rounders, who come and go in the league in a period of a 10-15 years. You can probably come up with more guys who have had modest careers at best than guys who became stars. That some of them couldn't beat out an "unaccomplished" QB in just their second year in the league means nothing to me. If Siemian gets the start in week 1 I'd consider that an endorsement of his abilities more so than a knock on Lynch's.

In my predictions for the season I made the assumption that Siemian would win the starting job. I do think he did well last year considering all the factors that were at play. With that said, I also recognize when there's a 1st round pick in line to take your spot, you have to make a compelling case for yourself. If the QB competition is close, even if it's close in Siemian's favor, the team will probably go with Lynch. That's the benefit of the doubt you get when you're a 1st round pick.

I have very little invested in either QB. I don't prefer one or the other, though I'll admit I love a good underdog story like Siemian's. The practical side of me also recognizes if Lynch wins the job but Siemian has a good preseason, his appeal as a trade option to a QB starved team would be tremendous. Assuming he's healthy, the team could allow Kelly to slide into the backup position.

This is where I am at. I hope Lynch wins and we can trade Trevor for a conditional 2nd/3rd and go with Kelly as the backup next year... if this were Madden that is what I would be trying to do.

also you can ask carl or scott, i was team Siemian starting last year because Lynch did not look consistent enough snap to snap on tape and was still too reflective of his 2016 tape at Memphis. But with a year to learn and the team in the 'treading water' category, if Lynch can execute snap to snap and show substantial growth from last year, he pry gets it imo.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Yeah, I saw this chart as well. Thought a little about this given the Mahomes timetables being suggested, but didn't do much research on this. Year 2 is pretty telling if a 1st round QB isn't starting.

 

[iknowftbll]

Yeah, I saw this chart as well. Thought a little about this given the Mahomes timetables being suggested, but didn't do much research on this. Year 2 is pretty telling if a 1st round QB isn't starting.

Interesting thought, mentioning Mahomes. I wouldn't consider Smith an "unaccomplished" QB, but some of these people who produce this stuff can be pretty brutal. Smith has led the Chiefs to the best 4 year run they've had in a long time, and he fell in on a team that was a dismal 2-14 the year before he arrived. I consider him similar to Plummer here in Denver. Despite Plummer putting the Broncos back on the football map he was never fully embraced by fans. Then people were calling for Cutler and we all know how that went.

Mark it: there will be people calling for Mahomes at some point this season. All I can say there is be careful what you wish for!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Interesting thought, mentioning Mahomes. I wouldn't consider Smith an "unaccomplished" QB, but some of these people who produce this stuff can be pretty brutal.

Kacsmar probably would love to if he could do so without being internally inconsistent- he is after all the inventor of the ALEX stat which Alex Smith routinely is in the bottom 5 in; Kacsmar's QB, Big Ben, is not that surprisingly at all, leading the pack. Chad Pennington and co aren't exactly much more of a ringing endorsement for me if what KC ends up is a different variation of Jay Cutler and not a QB you can cancel out most of the advantage the Raiders get out of Carr; and other potential threats like Rivers and maybe Lynch if he ever develops. Super Bowls are the goal, not spinning of the wheels. The sample is nonetheless not encouraging, and that worries me a tad for the possible event of Mahomes not being ready (especially with such a strong cap incentive to move Smith after this offseason) for starting 2018; or in the same vain Lynch for Denver.

Smith has led the Chiefs to the best 4 year run they've had in a long time, and he fell in on a team that was a dismal 2-14 the year before he arrived. I consider him similar to Plummer here in Denver.

Some truth to this. If the Chiefs just threw their hands up and said all the QB options in 2013 were terrible and just packed it in for 2013-201X, how different things might things be? Would the culture be different? Would Reid/Dorsey even sign up for that? Would Hunt? We'll never truly know the answer to that, but I can't really say I hate the Smith trade regardless of one's outlook on him. It was always going to be playing out the string until they got their guy behind center. Speaking of Plummer, the Cutler transition is probably the most semi-similar comp to what the Chiefs are trying right now. Just crossing my fingers and am curious to see how strong Andy's ability to work with QB's is The staff involved are a lot of the same guys involved in drafting Rodgers and McNabb. I am legitimately intrigued even if I was probably more of a Kizer than Mahomes or Watson guy late in the draft process.

Mark it: there will be people calling for Mahomes at some point this season. All I can say there is be careful what you wish for!

What do you mean, that's already happening :P

In all seriousness, outside of spot-starts I think it'd be utter foolishness to throw him out to the wolves coming out of Tech with his mechanics. The Chiefs offense is more air-raidish/spread than people think but yikes that is a transition process. Take advantage of having a stable starter unlike most teams that try to sit their draft pick for a year (Henne-Bortles, Cassel-Bridgewater, Kessler-Kizer coming soon) and let him absorb the offense.

 

[58crash]

Siemian throws a football like Mark Ripen IMO just enough sauce easy as heck to catch .

If Kubiak would stayed I liked his chances here ..

Lynch will be traded Elway IMO will get Yancey and Luck will be his no matter the cost after the season .

 

[Draft Crazy]

Saying you can't compare Siemian to Brian Hoyer is like saying you can't compare a draft prospect to another player in the NFL. To an extent I agree. But... I am not a huge fan of comparisons but it's fun to use them to give someone a better understanding of the direction you see their career going.. Hoyer is not a bad thing. He's in and out starting NFL QB, not a great thing either, but just sorta the way I think a lot of us are expecting his career to be. Long, and a few different roads traveled.

Of course you can't say they match to a tee this early in their career, but you can still compare/make predictions. Doesn't mean you will always be right.

 

[Draft Crazy]

He throws a football like Mark Ripen IMO just enough sauce easy as heck to catch

I can see this.

 

[58crash]

Lynch deep ball in college was a pretty thing so there is hope .

 

[58crash]

I can see this.

You see what was pounded into him . throw only safe stuff wide open only is were you are at with him .

Mark was thought deep and trust the WR's to get the football .

 

[Draft Crazy]

Rypien had a great OL, 3 very solid WR's in Monk, Sanders, Clark and a good run game... Smart player. He didn't need to be an elite QB, was a good QB with great supporting cast and didn't play above his limitations.

 

[CEH]

Rypien had a great OL, 3 very solid WR's in Monk, Sanders, Clark and a good run game... Smart player. He didn't need to be an elite QB, was a good QB with great supporting cast and didn't play above his limitations.

Also won a super bowl. Would be estactic if Trevor won a super bowl

Regarding Hoyer, never started a full NFL season until six years in
Trevor started his 2nd year in for the defending super bowl champs
Using Brian Griese than hoyer makes more sense to me

Sieman was 8-6 his first season
Don't see unless you project Siemian to suck like hoyer.
I project Trevor will continue to be a starter in the NFL

 

[Draft Crazy]

I think you're getting some things tangled here. I am not calling Rypien/Siemian... Crash compared the type of QB there are with the touch of their pass. Doesn't mean I see Siemian winning a SB.

Hoyer doesn't suck. You don't suck and become an NFL starting QB.

Is he legit starter? No... That is why I compared him to Siemian.

I'd hope we would all be estactic if Trevor won a SB in Denver.

 

[iknowftbll]

Some truth to this. If the Chiefs just threw their hands up and said all the QB options in 2013 were terrible and just packed it in for 2013-201X, how different things might things be? Would the culture be different? Would Reid/Dorsey even sign up for that? Would Hunt? We'll never truly know the answer to that, but I can't really say I hate the Smith trade regardless of one's outlook on him. It was always going to be playing out the string until they got their guy behind center. Speaking of Plummer, the Cutler transition is probably the most semi-similar comp to what the Chiefs are trying right now. Just crossing my fingers and am curious to see how strong Andy's ability to work with QB's is The staff involved are a lot of the same guys involved in drafting Rodgers and McNabb. I am legitimately intrigued even if I was probably more of a Kizer than Mahomes or Watson guy late in the draft process.

Now THIS is an interesting question. What alternative would you have wanted to see? What QB would you have wanted the Chiefs to draft in any of those years? And would it have worked?

From a fan perspective I never want to lose a season like that. The Chiefs are probably a lot closer to a SB now than they'd have been had they done a complete rebuild starting with Reid's arrival. It took the Raiders from 2012 to now just to get into a position to be credible again. And I still don't consider them a SB contender. Not with that defense and HC.

Still an interesting discussion.

 

[LGM]

So how about this...

What if Lynch is already the starter. What if the Broncos brass (and Elway has a pair of them) plans to keep it under wraps, then trade one of them? Why on earth would you say or do anything to harm their value in anyway?

All we've heard is how close the battle is, how each is stepping up, how each one has great positives... Meanwhile everyone at the DPO, LaCanfora and others expect Lynch to walk away (or think he has already) with the starting job.

Frankly I couldn't care less who it is, because they're both not elite - yet - though Lynch has the ability to climb that ladder a bit more than Siemian. And if either can't seal the deal, I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly didn't pull a Brady/Bledsoe and with this defense steal the starting job next season.

Whatever happens, at least we have the defense.

 

[cdumler7]

Now THIS is an interesting question. What alternative would you have wanted to see? What QB would you have wanted the Chiefs to draft in any of those years? And would it have worked?

From a fan perspective I never want to lose a season like that. The Chiefs are probably a lot closer to a SB now than they'd have been had they done a complete rebuild starting with Reid's arrival. It took the Raiders from 2012 to now just to get into a position to be credible again. And I still don't consider them a SB contender. Not with that defense and HC.

Still an interesting discussion.

The issue in the NFL is that you can spend years like the Raiders have done of building to this moment and honestly at best they have a 2-year window of real Super Bowl chances before the cost of the top players makes it very difficult to put a full squad together capable of winning the Super Bowl. Only 4 QB's have won making more than 10% of their team's cap. Steve Young right when the Salary Cap started so can't really count that one. Beyond that Eli Manning twice, Peyton Manning in 2006, and Tom Brady in 2014 if I remember right are the only ones to do it since the cap came into place. So 2 of the maybe best to ever do it and Eli who had a defense that went on 2 unbelievable runs in the playoffs.

So even when you hit the reset button and get lucky to find a good QB and some good pieces to surround him with while he is cheap that window closes very quickly.