Inherited Runners Stat

[calsnowskier]

We have been focusing on IR% this year because our bully appears to be REALLY bad at it this year, but the only stat available to track this aspect of the game sucks (IRS / IR). It is WAY too simplistic. An IR on 1st with 2 outs is considered the same as an IR on 3rd with no outs.

So I have been trying think of something that may tell a better story. I came up with something, but it is too raw to be considered finished. Any ideas?

My idea so far...

A runner on 1st is worth 1 point, 2nd is 2 points and 3rd is 3 points. If a reliever enters the game with no outs and a runner on 3rd, and gets out if it without allowing the run, he gets 9 points. If a reliever comes in with a runner on 1st and two outs, and gets out of it, he only gets 1 point.

So there is the foundation. The problem is that this should be a rate stat, not a counting stat. Also, what happens when the pitcher does not finish the inning? Or if he leaves after advancing his IRs a base or two? If this is going to be a rate stat, what should the numerator and denominators be?

Also, should getting the 3rd out count for anything special? That ends up clearing the bases and the IRs are officially off the table. I tend to think this would make it more complicated than it needs to be.

Thoughts?

 

[SF11704]

As much as I see the purpose of the stat I'm not sure how meaningful it really is. As you said it gets very complicated as you move through the process. The IR statistic itself just covers the aspect of 'base runners' scoring. It really doesn't do justice to the possible mess that occurred before the runners scored ...

Let's say ... runner on 1st with no outs. A reliever enters the game. He immediately gives up a single and then walks a batter. He is replaced. His IR% is zero. But he has greatly changed the dynamic of the game The new reliever K's the next two batters but then gives up a base clearing double. All 3 runners are charged to him. The IR% for that inning (and that pitcher) is 100% but there is nothing that reflects what the pitcher before him did to lead to that result. We would need some metric that tracks .... adding runners to the inherited pool as the inning progresses. In theory .... once a reliever enters a game with any number of runners on base ... any runners that score (even those not yet on base) from THAT MOMENT ON (in that inning) adds to the statistic. The only situation I can think of where the IR doesn't come into play is if a batter hits a HR. That batter is not an IR. Not sure about IRs scoring on an error either

 

[calsnowskier]

As much as I see the purpose of the stat I'm not sure how meaningful it really is. As you said it gets very complicated as you move through the process. The IR statistic itself just covers the aspect of 'base runners' scoring. It really doesn't do justice to the possible mess that occurred before the runners scored ...

Let's say ... runner on 1st with no outs. A reliever enters the game. He immediately gives up a single and then walks a batter. He is replaced. His IR% is zero. But he has greatly changed the dynamic of the game The new reliever K's the next two batters but then gives up a base clearing double. All 3 runners are charged to him. The IR% for that inning (and that pitcher) is 100% but there is nothing that reflects what the pitcher before him did to lead to that result. We would need some metric that tracks .... adding runners to the inherited pool as the inning progresses. In theory .... once a reliever enters a game with any number of runners on base ... any runners that score (even those not yet on base) from THAT MOMENT ON (in that inning) adds to the statistic. The only situation I can think of where the IR doesn't come into play is if a batter hits a HR. That batter is not an IR. Not sure about IRs scoring on an error either

That is why we need SOMETHING to track IRs.

In your scenario (let's just look at the first reliever)...

He comes in with no outs and a runner on 1st. Ignoring the runners he has added (that is covered in WHIP and ERA), he leaves with no outs and the runner he inherited now on 3rd.

Using my system above, he came in with a 1-point situation, he is leaving a 3-point situation instead. Maybe the "rate" of this new stat should be an entered/left equation.

Using this equation, he entered in a 3-point situation (1*3), but left a 9-point situation (3*3). So for this game, his IR ratio would 3/9, or 0.333. A good reliever would have a higher IR rating.

In tomorrow's game, he comes into a bases loaded, 1-out situation and gets out of it clean. He entered a 12-point situation and left clean (12/0), so his new rating would be 15/9, or 1.67. If he came in and just got 1 out, he would have 12/6 rating for the game instead.

 

[calsnowskier]

One more addition...

If he allows the runner to score, that is 4 points.


Edit: still needs some tweaking. If he allows the runner to score, than he only leaves a 4-point situation whether he closes the inning or not ((4*1) = 4 but 4*0 also =4 for the purposes of this equation).