I'm probably talking to myself but...How about some real off-season discussion?

[Gator]

Let me start off by saying that I am as guilty as anyone when it comes to getting mad and spewing foul language but I would like to try to have some serious discussions about college football. I am going to try to behave myself but how long that lasts remains to be seen.

Anyway, here are a few of the topics that I'm interested in hashing out:
What makes a “good” schedule? How does you “measure” a schedule? Should the CFP committee use "SOS" as a factor in choosing the 4 teams? What kind of SOS? Should only OOC games be looked at for SOS? How many “easy” schedules does it take before a team is labeled a “weak scheduler”? How much time do you give teams to “fix” a lousy schedule? What constitutes “cowardly” scheduling? How does one treat P5 and G5 teams “fairly” in selections for post season? And most importantly WHY do you think so?

 

[Gator]

I'll start off. Yes SOS should be used and must be used. Without SOS, only team records would be used and then "padding" of schedules would be rampant in order to remain unbeaten. I do not care for what passes as "SOS calculations". I have talked to a few of the computer rankers and they tell me that most SOS calculations are based on how the "average" team would do against the various schedules. It seems to me this is worthless in measuring top tier teams.
Here is my take:
There are 130 FBS teams so the "average" team would be (imaginary) team # 65.5.
Consider two schedules A: which consists of the 12 opponents ranked #60, #61, #62, ...#70, and #71.
and B: which consists of the 6 opponents ranked #1, #2, ...#5, and #6 plus the 6 opponents ranked #125, #126 ...#129 and #130.

For schedule A, because of symmetry, team #65.5 has the same chance of beating #60 as it does in losing to team #71. The same for teams #61 and #129, etc. Thus, the most likely outcome would be 6-6.

For schedule B, again because of symmetry, team #65.5 has the same chance of beating #1 as it does in losing to team #130. The same for teams #2 and #129, etc. Again, the most likely outcome would be 6-6.

Thus from an SOS standpoint the two schedules are equivalent in that they produce the same outcome for team #65.5.

But, suppose team #10 has the same choice of schedules.
This time schedule A has no symmetry. Team #10 is 50 to 71 ranking spot above every opponent and thus would be highly favored to win each game. Team #10 would most likely ended up 12-0 or 11-1.
Schedule B also lacks symmetry, team #10 would be the underdog in the games against teams #1 - #6. They would be exceptionly lucky to 2-4. More likely 0-6 or 1-5. In the other games, team #10 is at least 115 ranking positions above every opponent. Thus would (barring some miracle) they would be 6-0. For a combined record of 6-6, 6-5, or if very lucky 8-4.

Thus the two schedules ARE NOT equivalent for team #10.

It is bad enough to consider these two schedules equal but, some systems go to adjust these SOS's based on when each OOC game is played (early or late in the season), is there an "FCS" opponent ahead of the "tough" game (playing UMass an "FBS" is ok but not playing North Dakota State, an "FCS"), etc....

The old BCS formula of 2/3 opponents record +1/3 opponents-opponents record was much better than the SOS nonsense used above.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

Hypothetical schedule here. Say you are the 50th ranked team. What is a tougher 3 game stretch? All home games.

#46, #47, & #48
Or
#99, #1, & #49

Games played in that order.

 

[Gator]

Hypothetical schedule here. Say you are the 50th ranked team. What is a tougher 3 game stretch? All home games.

#46, #47, & #48
Or
#99, #1, & #49

Games played in that order.

Good question. So called "home field advantage" only applies to 4 of the games. In schedule A, the games should be close to toss up with team #50 a slight favorite (due to HFA in all three games but games should be close probable record 2-1. In B, team #50 should lose to #1 handily but should easily beat #99. Like schedule A, team #50 vs #49 should be close to toss up but with "HFA", team #50 would probably be a slight favorite. Probable record 2-1. I would say for team #50 these would be close. Again, for team #10, schedule A is easier. What do you think?

 

[Gator]

Hypothetical schedule here. Say you are the 50th ranked team. What is a tougher 3 game stretch? All home games.

#46, #47, & #48
Or
#99, #1, & #49

Games played in that order.

Notice that I didn't care what order games were played in. To me strength of schedule has to do with the teams that are playing not when the games are played. Yes, there are factors that make a game harder to win that have nothing to do with the SOS. Maybe your QB got injured, or game was played in a driving snow storm. Those should not have anything to do with the SOS. We're talking about strength of schedule not strength of conditions. The strength of schedule is fixed but the players, coaches, AD, etc should control the conditions as best as they can so as to give YOUR team the best chance to win against whoever you're scheduled to play. IMHO, that is where many errors occur.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

Good question. So called "home field advantage" only applies to 4 of the games. In schedule A, the games should be close to toss up with team #50 a slight favorite (due to HFA in all three games but games should be close probable record 2-1. In B, team #50 should lose to #1 handily but should easily beat #99. Like schedule A, team #50 vs #49 should be close to toss up but with "HFA", team #50 would probably be a slight favorite. Probable record 2-1. I would say for team #50 these would be close. Again, for team #10, schedule A is easier. What do you think?

Agree with a team ranked 10th the three mid level games, they would have a higher probability of going 3-0 vs the other 3 game stretch.

 

[Gator]

Agree with a team ranked 10th the three mid level games, they would have a higher probability of going 3-0 vs the other 3 game stretch.

Any idea how to calculate a meaningful SOS for top teams? I mentioned the old BCS method of 2/3 opponents records + 1/3 opponents-opponents records but that suffers from the same problem. 12-0 team + 0-12 team = 2 x 6-6.

 

[006]

Change the playoffs to 8 teams. Admit right up front that the 2 best B1G and SEC teams are in. ACC, BIG XII, and Pac 12 champions are in. Next best team is in. That would give you only 1 team that the SOS had any bearing on the playoffs. This would be a big enough sample to see the best teams play each other.

 

[thunderc]

12 teams is the answer and it will happen when the idiotic butthurt ends

 

[006]

12 teams is the answer and it will happen when the idiotic butthurt ends

So after the first round, 6 teams left and after the second round, 3 teams left?

 

[thunderc]

So after the first round, 6 teams left and after the second round, 3 teams left?

Top 4 get byes

 

[006]

Top 4 get byesre

For what reason would any team get a bye?

Just put the best 8 out there or pretend to be the NFL.

 

[thunderc]

For what reason would any team get a bye?

Just put the best 8 out there or pretend to be the NFL.

More games, more $. Not complicated