If you had to trade Zito

[CameronFrye]

Yes, I know we would all LOVE to trade Zito but the obvious fact is that his contract is an albatross. So instead of resigning myself to the fact that he's going to be a Giant until he retires, I thought it would be fun to look at other albatross contracts in MLB and figure out if any of the GMs that control those contracts could be persuaded to deal for Zito. I know this isn't going to happen in real life, so think of this as a bit of fantasy economics 101.

So, you have to trade Zito for one of the following players; which one would it be and why?


1. Alfonso Soriano (owed $18 million 2012-2014)

2. Vernon Wells (owed $21 million 2012-2014

3. Alex Rios ($12 mil in 2012; $12.5 mil in 2013 and 2014; 1 M buyout in 2015)

4. Adam Dunn ($14 mil in 2012; $15 mil in 2013 and 2014)

5. John Lackey ($15.25 mil in 2012-2014)



******************
I would immediately rule out Lackey and Dunn. Lackey is out because he's essentially Zito and what's the point in trading one shitty contract for another that helps neither team? Dunn is out because he's limited to 1B and trading for him means that Huff moves to LF and Belt gets the bench. Even with Huff gone, you can't put Dunn in left and move Belt to first. Since Dunn is signed through 2014, he has no place on the Giants.

As for the outfielders, I immediately discount Soriano because he's a left fielder and he's not even very good there. He cannot play center - which is the team's only spot of need. Wells has played center, but he did so very poorly. He, like Soriano, is mostly a left fielder.

That leaves Alexis Rios. Rios is owed $37 million (including his buyout) through the end of his contract. Zito is owed $46 mil (including his buyout). I think that to get the White Sux to even consider a deal for Rios, the Giants would have to offer up at least $12 mil and a mid-level prospect. Rios is also not the greatest defensive CF, but he's not horrible and it would solve one of the team's problems without touching payroll at all.

One final note: in six games at spacious U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago where the White Sux play, Zito has a 4-0 record in 6 games with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .211 off him in 39.1 innings and he has given up only 2 home runs there.

Not saying Kenny Williams would do the trade, but a case could be made.

What say you all?

 

[msgkings322]

Yes, I know we would all LOVE to trade Zito but the obvious fact is that his contract is an albatross. So instead of resigning myself to the fact that he's going to be a Giant until he retires, I thought it would be fun to look at other albatross contracts in MLB and figure out if any of the GMs that control those contracts could be persuaded to deal for Zito. I know this isn't going to happen in real life, so think of this as a bit of fantasy economics 101.

So, you have to trade Zito for one of the following players; which one would it be and why?


1. Alfonso Soriano (owed $18 million 2012-2014)

2. Vernon Wells (owed $21 million 2012-2014

3. Alex Rios ($12 mil in 2012; $12.5 mil in 2013 and 2014; 1 M buyout in 2015)

4. Adam Dunn ($14 mil in 2012; $15 mil in 2013 and 2014)

5. John Lackey ($15.25 mil in 2012-2014)



******************
I would immediately rule out Lackey and Dunn. Lackey is out because he's essentially Zito and what's the point in trading one shitty contract for another that helps neither team? Dunn is out because he's limited to 1B and trading for him means that Huff moves to LF and Belt gets the bench. Even with Huff gone, you can't put Dunn in left and move Belt to first. Since Dunn is signed through 2014, he has no place on the Giants.

As for the outfielders, I immediately discount Soriano because he's a left fielder and he's not even very good there. He cannot play center - which is the team's only spot of need. Wells has played center, but he did so very poorly. He, like Soriano, is mostly a left fielder.

That leaves Alexis Rios. Rios is owed $37 million (including his buyout) through the end of his contract. Zito is owed $46 mil (including his buyout). I think that to get the White Sux to even consider a deal for Rios, the Giants would have to offer up at least $12 mil and a mid-level prospect. Rios is also not the greatest defensive CF, but he's not horrible and it would solve one of the team's problems without touching payroll at all.

One final note: in six games at spacious U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago where the White Sux play, Zito has a 4-0 record in 6 games with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .211 off him in 39.1 innings and he has given up only 2 home runs there.

Not saying Kenny Williams would do the trade, but a case could be made.

What say you all?

Torres (even now) is > Rios. Pass.

 

[SFGRTB]

Torres (even now) is > Rios. Pass.

But, in essence we'd be saving money in that deal.

 

[Stokes1931]

How about Zito and Huffer for AGon?

Red Sux need pitching help, we need a hitter. Is there anyone else on the Red Sox who would make sense? They have the money, and BZ may be better back in the AL.

Of the options, I like the Rios deal, only to save money and get Zito the heck out of the Bay Area. Not a huge fan of any of those players, really, but Rios is the least heinous of the five.

And how the hell did Lackey win 12 games this year with a 6.41 ERA, and Lincecum lose 14 with a 2.74 ERA? Inconceivable!

 

[filosofy29]

Torres (even now) is > Rios. Pass.

I'd still do it I think. I'd have much more hope that he'd turn it around more so than Zito. He's also shown that he can sometimes be valuable. Very least, he can have a scorching month and you could justify the trade just by getting rid of Zeets.

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see the $12 mil we would owe the WS in Cams original proposal, I just saw the B level prospect. After thinking harder on it, I'd send $4mil and a B prospect, otherwise, no deal.

EDIT DOS: After seeing Cam's second post. Yes, I'd do that trade. If Rios can even bat .275 with 12 homers and 25 steals with above average defense in CF, it'd be worth it in my humble opinion.....but then again I've been drinking.....also, he's the only trade that would really make sense as well.

 

[tzill]

But a potential Rios deal WOULDN'T save any money, at least not the way Cam has framed it. Zito is owed $46MM (19 -- 20 -- 7 buyout). Rios is owed $38MM (12 -- 12.5 -- 12.5 -- 1). If we have to send the Sox $12MM to make the deal, Rios effectively costs us $50MM and we LOSE $4MM plus the mid level prospect.

Fucking PASS. We are stuck with Zito, at least for another 1.5 years.

 

[CameronFrye]

OK. So forget about the $12 mil. Make it $6 mil and a B level prospect. I am more interested in hearing your answers as to who among the five is in your minds the best of the worst contracts.
Stop taking it so damn literally and have fun.

Humorless fukks.

 

[sfsportsfan]

i'd take Dunn. definitely think this year was a fluke. can his D in left really be worse than pat the bat?

 

[the_broom]

i'd take Dunn. definitely think this year was a fluke. can his D in left really be worse than pat the bat?

Yes...he is a horrible outfielder...

 

[iHATEdodgers]

god DAMN Dunn hit .159 this year in 414 ABs.

I miss Rowand let's go with the Rios deal. Doesn't he have 5 tools or something?

But if I had to - Soriano without a doubt. He would hit 5th/6th for us and fill the Juan Uribe role. But he is worth far more than fucking Zito, we would have to part with some real shit for that to happen. Imagine Zito in Wrigley... he'd give up 50 bombs. Fuck Zito.

 

[tzill]

OK. So forget about the $12 mil. Make it $6 mil and a B level prospect. I am more interested in hearing your answers as to who among the five is in your minds the best of the worst contracts.
Stop taking it so damn literally and have fun.

Humorless fukks.

Rios is the best of the worst. Dunn blocks Belt. Wells' and Soriano's contracts are prohibitive. Essentially your deal boils down to: we give up a B prospect (Fairley) to get Rios for Zito. Rios average WAR the last three years is -0.8...that is, he was WORSE than a AAA callup, on average, for the last three years.

I guess I don't really care either way, as I don't expect any better out of Zito.

 

[the_broom]

None of these trades really make things better for the org, IMO....

 

[Heathbar012]

None of these trades really make things better for the org, IMO....

Very true, but what happens if laid-back Barry becomes sarcastic $18 million distraction Barry? Obviously, it's pure speculation, but wealthy or no, when Zito is healthy, he is going to want to pitch. Despite a seemingly non-confrontational demeanor, the guy is extremely competitive. That hasn't pushed him to improve his pitching over the years, but we have already discussed Zito's sucktitude enough for two collapsed careers.

I don't know that Rios would be a joy in the locker room, or even how Zito will come back next year, but Cam's discussion prompt is valid. I know it's been discussed, but with the Rowand release, paying him to stay home becomes a lot more real. How can the organization get anything out of this debacle whatsoever? It seems Rios. Blocking promising players would only exacerbate the problems of past personnel decisions.

Team Improvement? Maybe slightly. Consequential? Definitely.

 

[calsnowskier]

I still think that Zito is an OK 4 or 5 starter (ignore the money). For the Giants, he is probably at best a #6 (Durty, Zito, Surkamp).

I think that the G's (assuming BZ agrees to waive his no-trade) can get a decent prospect in return if they are willing eat all but 4M or 5M per year. He has the pedigree, so other teams would be willing to take a flyer on him, I think, if you take away the albatross from his neck.

 

[tzill]

Very true, but what happens if laid-back Barry becomes sarcastic $18 million distraction Barry? Obviously, it's pure speculation, but wealthy or no, when Zito is healthy, he is going to want to pitch. Despite a seemingly non-confrontational demeanor, the guy is extremely competitive. That hasn't pushed him to improve his pitching over the years, but we have already discussed Zito's sucktitude enough for two collapsed careers.

I don't know that Rios would be a joy in the locker room, or even how Zito will come back next year, but Cam's discussion prompt is valid. I know it's been discussed, but with the Rowand release, paying him to stay home becomes a lot more real. How can the organization get anything out of this debacle whatsoever? It seems Rios. Blocking promising players would only exacerbate the problems of past personnel decisions.

Team Improvement? Maybe slightly. Consequential? Definitely.

I think if Zito were a malcontent, he'd have already lost it by now. He was left off the post season roster last year and said nothing. He was stashed on the DL this year and said nothing. He's a team guy and is the farthest thing from a clubhouse cancer that I can think of.

Straight up for Rios? I guess so, just to save a few million. But pay for the privilege? No way. He'll have value in 2013 at the trade deadline and we might be able to dump him then and have another team pick up the $7MM option in 2014. I seriously doubt we'll eat his contract. He's no Rowand -- he's not a whiner.

 

[Heathbar012]

I think if Zito were a malcontent, he'd have already lost it by now. He was left off the post season roster last year and said nothing. He was stashed on the DL this year and said nothing. He's a team guy and is the farthest thing from a clubhouse cancer that I can think of.

Straight up for Rios? I guess so, just to save a few million. But pay for the privilege? No way. He'll have value in 2013 at the trade deadline and we might be able to dump him then and have another team pick up the $7MM option in 2014. I seriously doubt we'll eat his contract. He's no Rowand -- he's not a whiner.

I've always gotten that impression, too. I don't think it would be likely, but I assume something has to give with him sooner or later. $100 million can only do so much to ease a competitive guy's pain. At the very least, though, I'm sure it has contributed to a significant amount of blow jobs, which can't hurt.

EDIT: If he did start grumbling, do you think Sabes would recommend eating the rest of the contract or attempting a trade that helps nothing (as far as product on the field)?

 

[msgkings322]

Please note that if we sign Fielder, or Reyes, or even Beltran, we will be having very similar conversations about what to do with their bloated contracts in 2-3 years.

 

[CameronFrye]

Please note that if we sign Fielder, or Reyes, or even Beltran, we will be having very similar conversations about what to do with their bloated contracts in 2-3 years.

Stop it. When Peter Magowan forced management to overpay for Barry Zito, he was already a pitcher on the decline. his peripheral stats showed a marked decline in his Ks per 9 innins, his K:BB ratio and a rise in his hr/9. Plus, anyone with half a brain could have watched him and seen a decline in his fastball speed. We ALL knew that Zito was on his way down.

Fielder is 27 years old and is still improving as a hitter. Fielder had a .981 OPS this season and an OPS+ of 164, which is 30 points higher than last season's. His OBP went up, his BA went up, his strikeouts went down and his total bases went up. His WAR doubled from the previous year.

The guy is going to be a very solid hitter throughout his next contract. If you want to say that the Giants cannot afford him, fine. But saying that any team that signs him will regret it 2-3 years into his contract is pure conjecture and is a statement that is not supported by ANY stats.

I will not argue the point with Reyes or Beltran because both are fra-geelee (ooh, must be Italian). But Fielder is not in that same conversation. He deserves to test the FA market and the Giants would be lucky to be able to sign him for the next 6 years. They won't do it, but he would be a VAST improvement over anyone the team will stick at 1B before 2015 - and that includes Brandon Belt.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Please note that if we sign Fielder, or Reyes, or even Beltran, we will be having very similar conversations about what to do with their bloated contracts in 2-3 years.

Yeah but they all will have at least contributed something in the meantime. I don't give a crap if Beltran is gimping around in left field for $15mil in 2014 if he hits .300 with 25HR and 100RBI in 2012 and again in 2013.

Anyone with half a brain has been grumbling about Zito and Rowand from the day they were signed, not just here at the end of their ridiculous contracts. I don't think anyone would be grumbling if the Giants signed Beltran to a 3 year deal for $XXXridiculous millions. I wouldn't.

 

[CameronFrye]

For the record, the reason I started this thread was to have some fun and be creative. That said, I would MUCH rather overpay a hitter who has a chance to affect a game every day - even as a pinch-hitter - rather than a finesse pitcher who can only affect the game once every five days (and most of those will be negative).

At least Rios has a chance to hit 20 bombs and steal 10 bags in a season. Zito will never be a winning pitcher again.