I just have to get some opinions...

[randymon]

On this NE/Brady deflategate. What kills me is not one person has brought up the fact that NE more than likely/ prob, has been deflating ball for more reasons than just Mr. Brady.. Everyone knows a deflated ball is easier to handle in "inclement" weather. The Pats just may have been killing two birds with one stone by addressing Brady preferment and ball control as well during the reg season also. Nobody mentions the Pats have been in top 4 in Turnover Ratio last 5 yrs!. Maybe they shouldn`t just concentrate on Brady and the AFC C gm and look at the bigger picture here. I think this just may have been going on alot more often esp in bad weather gms for NE. I don`t believe that it just happened in that game. They must of felt confident they would be ok because they got away with multiple times IMO. I doubt you risk it in a such a big game if you never did it before. Just surprised all these brainiacs on espn,etc haven`t even mentioned the possibility. Thoughts?

 

[DownSetHutch]

There are a lot of threads on the subject, and I have seen that connection made multiple times on the Hoop. But as far as in the media, yeah I don't expect to hear about it. There is too much bias in favor of anything and everything Patriots for that to be mentioned. If it is, I will be surprised. It's common sense to assume that this may not have been the first time they deflated balls, and that it could have coincided with their low TO ratios for several years, but that's too speculative for most people in the sports media to even mention it. Maybe one of them will get the "balls" to make that case though.

 

[Broncosballer32]

On this NE/Brady deflategate. What kills me is not one person has brought up the fact that NE more than likely/ prob, has been deflating ball for more reasons than just Mr. Brady.. Everyone knows a deflated ball is easier to handle in "inclement" weather. The Pats just may have been killing two birds with one stone by addressing Brady preferment and ball control as well during the reg season also. Nobody mentions the Pats have been in top 4 in Turnover Ratio last 5 yrs!. Maybe they shouldn`t just concentrate on Brady and the AFC C gm and look at the bigger picture here. I think this just may have been going on alot more often esp in bad weather gms for NE. I don`t believe that it just happened in that game. They must of felt confident they would be ok because they got away with multiple times IMO. I doubt you risk it in a such a big game if you never did it before. Just surprised all these brainiacs on espn,etc haven`t even mentioned the possibility. Thoughts?

Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble
PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.

One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.

It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.

“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”

According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.

“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”

Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble - Yahoo Sports

Little strange to me.

Interesting to me how Benjarvus Green Ellis in 4 seasons (during this time period) did not fumble the ball once. He signs with the Bengals, he fumbles the ball 5 times.

 

[TDs3nOut]

When I read Randy's OP I immediately thought of the piece that Broncosballer posted above, since I read it when he posted it on the nfl general board. I find this snippet particularly compelling:

"Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.

“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”

According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams."

Hard to imagine that there isn't something fishy about such a significant drop in the Pats' fumble rate over two so long a periods.

 

[randymon]

Great stuff Bb32. That`s exactly the info that is out there yet nobody,at least on NFL Insiders, NFL LIVE or NFL Access is even mentioning. If you were able to dig up that info, you would think that with all the resources available to these networks, that it would be a subject very worthy of mention because it certainly would appear to be relevent to the current accusations regarding thePats and deflated footballs. That article alone should grab the attention of anyone involved or suspicious of previous cheating allegations involving the Pats and BB. How many gms since 2006 has deflating a ball given the Pats an unfair advantage and may have effected the outcome of games in which they won. I would like to see that article Bb find it`s way to getting the attention it deserves on major NFL media venues. If there isn`t even the slightest possible connection to the current investigation with deflategate going on here, then I am one dumb SOB. Good stuff.

 

[Broncosballer32]

Great stuff Bb32. That`s exactly the info that is out there yet nobody,at least on NFL Insiders, NFL LIVE or NFL Access is even mentioning. If you were able to dig up that info, you would think that with all the resources available to these networks, that it would be a subject very worthy of mention because it certainly would appear to be relevent to the current accusations regarding thePats and deflated footballs. That article alone should grab the attention of anyone involved or suspicious of previous cheating allegations involving the Pats and BB. How many gms since 2006 has deflating a ball given the Pats an unfair advantage and may have effected the outcome of games in which they won. I would like to see that article Bb find it`s way to getting the attention it deserves on major NFL media venues. If there isn`t even the slightest possible connection to the current investigation with deflategate going on here, then I am one dumb SOB. Good stuff.

Supposedly there was a debunking of this, and that is the main reason not much traction has been made in regards to this article.

Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk

I can take that with a grain of salt considering it is deadspin contradicting Warren Sharp. They try to show how the Colts, under "Manning" from 2006-2010 has similar statistics in regards to fumbling. The way they say it too...."non-other than the Peytion Manning Colts....."

Well, what they of course leave out is the fact that the Colts play in a dome. I will put it this way, most outdoor teams that play in subarctic temperatures, do not have the fumble stats of the Pats.

------------

Anyway, there was some traction gained, but since there was a supposed debunking not much is reported about the Warren Sharp findings.

I do not think Sharp had a biased point of view when he conducted his analysis. That, along with how certain players that played with the Pats fumbled significantly less than other teams. Like BJGE.

According to Stats, LLC, the six players who have played extensively for the Patriots and other teams in this span all fumbled far less frequently wearing the New England uniform. Including recovered fumbles, Danny Amendola, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount have lost the ball eight times in 1,482 touches for the Patriots since 2010, or once every 185.3 times. For their other teams, they fumbled 22 times in 1,701 touches (once every 77.3)

 

[randymon]

Where I think the deflating would of been deployed more often by the Pats would be in inclement weather games home and away. No real advantage to me in fair weather games for Pats but it sure would help in bad weather gms for them I would assume. If you put just those games where the weather was raining or sloppy that the Pats played in say last 5 yrs wonder what the TO ratio would look like compared to their opponents???

 

[Broncosballer32]

Where I think the deflating would of been deployed more often by the Pats would be in inclement weather games home and away. No real advantage to me in fair weather games for Pats but it sure would help in bad weather gms for them I would assume. If you put just those games where the weather was raining or sloppy that the Pats played in say last 5 yrs wonder what the TO ratio would look like compared to their opponents???

The problem with statistical analysis (this is probably the reason why not much is being reported by the media) is we are dealing with "probabilities" and often times that is not exact.

Meaning, stats are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital.

The media in reporting is more interested in SMOKING GUNS which cannot be refuted. They shy away from these statistical things, cause I am pretty sure they can really open themselves up for potential litigation.

I know slander or libel is very difficult for a "public figure" to pursue. There are specific protections the media has in regards to reporting about any public figure. However, I am pretty sure there is a distinction when it comes to statistical probability. Fact is, it is not a smoking gun. Since it is not, the media will not report it as an absolute. Therefore, there is not much they can really do, other than potentially exposing themselves for a potential suit.

Trust this, the producers of ESPN approve content and that is what they are most concerned about. When Bob Ley does Outside the Lines, you will see that he (ESPN) is very careful with how they report. He comes across as objective and as neutral as he can possibly get. Will play devils advocate constantly. Etc etc.

MY OPINION in this matter with the Pats is they did see a way to game the system. I personally do not mind that they try that stuff. I know Shanahan tried to do stuff all of the time. For example, I remember a game ( I think it is was 2005) where the Broncos went to San Diego. It was forecast to be rather HOT. The home team is at liberty to pick their jersey color. The Chargers chose to play in their whites, due to the fact that it was hot. Well, the Broncos showed up in their whites and did not even bring the DARK BLUE.

The NFL made the Chargers play in their DARK BLUE, cause they could not allow two teams in WHITE. It was gamesmanship. I know the Chargers sent the league a notice, and I believe the Broncos were fined. The Broncos won that game, I do know that.

Bottom line is I do think the Pats are guilty. I really cannot stand the Pats for a variety of reason. I think it is has a lot to do with how Belichick is so revered by the sycophants in the media yada yada...... I do not blame them for trying to gaming the system. I am amused when they get caught doing it though.

 

[Broncosballer32]

Here is that situation I was talking about in regards to that game with the Chargers. It was 2003.

Uniformgate (2003) Modified: 05/08/2015">

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TEAM: The Denver Broncos

SEVERITY:

SUMMARY: Former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue fined the Denver Broncos$25,000 for wearing the wrong uniforms in their game with San Diego on Sept. 14, 2003.

The Chargers filed a complaint after the Broncos showed up with only their white uniform tops, forcing the Chargers to wear blue. The home team chooses the jersey color and San Diego wanted to wear the light color.



VICTIM: San Diego Chargers

PUNISHED? Yes

PUNISHMENT: The Broncos fined $25,000.

There is a long list here, in regards to stuff Shanahan did during his tenure.

The Denver Broncos Complete Cheating History - Your Team Cheats - The Definitive Guide to NFL Cheating

Like I said, I do not really mind. Is it bad when it comes to strict sportsmanship? Yeah, it is. I do not really care.

 

[iknowftbll]

That's a good site with all the cheats from all the teams. I disagree with the conclusion on the Broncos manipulation of the salary cap, though. How contracts are structured is manipulated a lot in the league and I believe the Broncos biggest mistake was doing so outside the legal parameters. I consider the vasoline use by the O-line to be a more serious infraction because it led to a DIRECT game time edge. The salary cap...does anyone think they would not have figured out a way to legally restructure those contracts? One cannot prove a counter factual, but I don't see how this manipulation of the cap led to a direct edge on the field when the same affect could have probably been achieved within the legal parameters.

 

[iknowftbll]

PS: I do love how the cap manipulation is the "go-to" for EVERY Pats fan out there when cheating is brought up.

 

[Broncosr0k]

That's a good site with all the cheats from all the teams.

Good, as in it lists them. The author has skewed rating system and he makes a big deal about an issue for some teams and not other. Namely, he skews it in favor of the Patriots.

He also lumps all banned substance users into a single PED category, like Von Miller.

Pats fans have been pasting the article all over the NFL board to justify their cheating. What they neglect to mention is that almost all of these resulted in a penalty of some sort.

 

[WalkerBoh]

What usually gets left out in the salary cap deal is the reason it happened in the first place. It was never an effort to keep key players. It was born out of the fact cash flow was tight due to the new stadium being built. I still wish the ownership had found another way to handle that. But it was never the reason he fielded the team we had. NFL even noted in their conclusion there was no effort to intentionally skirt the cap to keep players.

 

[iknowftbll]

What usually gets left out in the salary cap deal is the reason it happened in the first place. It was never an effort to keep key players. It was born out of the fact cash flow was tight due to the new stadium being built. I still wish the ownership had found another way to handle that. But it was never the reason he fielded the team we had. NFL even noted in their conclusion there was no effort to intentionally skirt the cap to keep players.

This is what I recall as well, and therefore cannot be considered a direct advantage gained. Pats fans often cite this violation as the single most serious case of cheating in the NFL's history. It's not even a top-10. Probably not a top-25 really.

 

[Southieinnc]

PS: I do love how the cap manipulation is the "go-to" for EVERY Pats fan out there when cheating is brought up.

Not I. I think that whole thing was another league screw up.....

 

[cdumler7]

Not I. I think that whole thing was another league screw up.....

Might want to talk to Rock Strongo then as he loves using this one. Heck might want to talk to the site that he uses all the time to show that every team cheats as that guy gave it one of the highest ratings on the entire site. Again one of those very misunderstood issues that people see the words "cap manipulation" and automatically assume the worst.

 

[Southieinnc]

Might want to talk to Rock Strongo then as he loves using this one. Heck might want to talk to the site that he uses all the time to show that every team cheats as that guy gave it one of the highest ratings on the entire site. Again one of those very misunderstood issues that people see the words "cap manipulation" and automatically assume the worst.

Cap manipulation is not illegal it is a violation, which you can be fined for.
Wait! You can be fined for spending too much of your own money?
What a dastardly deed. Only the NFL can make that look sinister.....
Rock is a veteran troll. He was trolling years before I ever saw him here. You want to talk football - he wants to argue. Everybody wins.

 

[cdumler7]

Cap manipulation is not illegal it is a violation, which you can be fined for.
Wait! You can be fined for spending too much of your own money?
What a dastardly deed. Only the NFL can make that look sinister.....
Rock is a veteran troll. He was trolling years before I ever saw him here. You want to talk football - he wants to argue. Everybody wins.

Haha we used to have one of those on here for the Broncos. Can't remember his name...Maybe Kwityerwhinen or something like that. He loved coming on the general board and going crazy.

 

[Southieinnc]

Haha we used to have one of those on here for the Broncos. Can't remember his name...Maybe Kwityerwhinen or something like that. He loved coming on the general board and going crazy.

Kwityerwhinen was truly the only person on here that I personally dislike. Funny, he admitted getting run out of all the towns he lived in. You lose one another shows up. We got a new guy (eagles) who is fighting with Fencer. He is going to get tired of that real quick.....

 

[cdumler7]

Kwityerwhinen was truly the only person on here that I personally dislike. Funny, he admitted getting run out of all the towns he lived in. You lose one another shows up. We got a new guy (eagles) who is fighting with Fencer. He is going to get tired of that real quick.....

Yeah Trolls don't usually last too long on here. They burn out pretty quickly. Rock Strongo has lasted longer than most. With Kwit that wouldn't surprise me if he did get ran out of town. Even as fellow Bronco fans there was some shame that he claimed to be a Bronco fan. Same with BTF or whatever his name was. Even if we don't win a Super Bowl with Manning the nice thing was it was a great excuse to trade Tebow. The fact that Elway got something in a trade for Tebow was crazy. I didn't mind Tebow the person one bit but his fan base is about as crazy as it gets. They took over Bronco boards and if you think this whole Deflategate thing is crazy you should have been on some of the Bronco boards when Tebow was part of our 2011 team and we were winning games. You would have thought the guy was God Himself with the way those fans worshiped him.