Hypotheticals

[cincygrad]

Joe Burrow was making more noise today about signing our key guys. Specifically discussing his willingness to redo his contract to create cap space. But, cap space really isn't the issue. It's cash. And the Bengals will cry poor and likely not make it work. It got me thinking about some things in play for this franchise over the next three years. So, put these in order of liklihood from highest probability to lowest probability over the next three years.

1) Bengals function like an NFL team and offer re-sign Higgins and Chase with market value contracts and modern guarantee structures.

2) Bengals let Higgins and Trey walk and sign Chase after a prolonged holdout. Burrow asks for a trade next offseason after the Bengals limp to a 7-10 record in 2025.

3) Bengals can't come to agreement with county and begin the process of trying to move.

4) Bengals let Trey and Tee walk, Burrow says nothing and Bengals have mediocre season. Burrow doesn't mention it again as he is fully Bengalized.

I'm leaning towards 4, 2, 1, 3.

 

[alf8478]

I think that if 2 or 4 happen, then everyone should want 3 to happen

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Joe Burrow was making more noise today about signing our key guys. Specifically discussing his willingness to redo his contract to create cap space. But, cap space really isn't the issue. It's cash. And the Bengals will cry poor and likely not make it work. It got me thinking about some things in play for this franchise over the next three years. So, put these in order of liklihood from highest probability to lowest probability over the next three years.

1) Bengals function like an NFL team and offer re-sign Higgins and Chase with market value contracts and modern guarantee structures.

2) Bengals let Higgins and Trey walk and sign Chase after a prolonged holdout. Burrow asks for a trade next offseason after the Bengals limp to a 7-10 record in 2025.

3) Bengals can't come to agreement with county and begin the process of trying to move.

4) Bengals let Trey and Tee walk, Burrow says nothing and Bengals have mediocre season. Burrow doesn't mention it again as he is fully Bengalized.

I'm leaning towards 4, 2, 1, 3.

Franchise Tee one more time so you don't have any up front money out of pocket. Trey has to play out his final year on his contract. Chase gets a huge extension, if that happens, Burrow isn't going anywhere, because his best friend just got resigned to a mega deal for a long time. Now if both contracts end at the same time, later on, say good by to Chase because the Bengals will continue to franchise Burrow until he resigns a contract long term.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Franchise Tee one more time so you don't have any up front money out of pocket. Trey has to play out his final year on his contract. Chase gets a huge extension, if that happens, Burrow isn't going anywhere, because his best friend just got resigned to a mega deal for a long time. Now if both contracts end at the same time, later on, say good by to Chase because the Bengals will continue to franchise Burrow until he resigns a contract long term.

I guess I didn't realize we could put another franchise tag on Tee Higgins. his contract is up in under a month.

 

[DanBengalfan]

#1 priority is J'marr Chase. the offense isn't very good without him, all the other mediocre talent gets exposed.
#2 Trey continued to play well all season and all signs point to this continuing. if we let him go, he will be hard to replace, and our defense will suffer. we can't let opposing quarterbacks have all day to throw.
#3 sure, if they can franchise Tee, that's great. but... he is battling through injuries though and needs a break. I'm not sure he will play a 17 game season plus playoffs. we will need another solution at WR#2 if Iosivas, Jones, or Gisecki is not the answer.

take care of 1 and 2, then worry about 3.

probably, more importantly, fix the damned defense.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Per Sport Trac: The #Bengals enter the offseason with around $49M of Top 51 cap space .Processing a full base salary conversion on Joe Burrow's contract can free up another $19.2M, giving Cincinnati plenty of room to begin to add to, extend, or maintain their core nucleus.

Per Joe Goodberry: I'd shocked if Higgins saw 1 second of Free Agency.


It seems, maybe, things are moving in the right direction. The reality is - by not signing guys when they become eligible (Higgins, Chase) it is now forcing them to have a bunch of escrow money at one time, which could be an issue. I'm not saying it is THE issue, but for a Franchise that doesn't have the kind of liquid capital of other teams with Billion $$$ owners outside of owning a Football team...this is going to be an issue for the Bengals at some point, if not now...later.

Bottom line - everyone knows that the Bengals can make it work. We're going to find out just how much pull Burrow actually has...but I'd say as far as Chase - he'll get signed at some point, that will be enough for Burrow as they will add another WR in the draft, or in F/A to help assuage his concerns for another WR.

 

[cincygrad]

Per Sport Trac: The #Bengals enter the offseason with around $49M of Top 51 cap space .Processing a full base salary conversion on Joe Burrow's contract can free up another $19.2M, giving Cincinnati plenty of room to begin to add to, extend, or maintain their core nucleus.

Per Joe Goodberry: I'd shocked if Higgins saw 1 second of Free Agency.


It seems, maybe, things are moving in the right direction. The reality is - by not signing guys when they become eligible (Higgins, Chase) it is now forcing them to have a bunch of escrow money at one time, which could be an issue. I'm not saying it is THE issue, but for a Franchise that doesn't have the kind of liquid capital of other teams with Billion $$$ owners outside of owning a Football team...this is going to be an issue for the Bengals at some point, if not now...later.

Bottom line - everyone knows that the Bengals can make it work. We're going to find out just how much pull Burrow actually has...but I'd say as far as Chase - he'll get signed at some point, that will be enough for Burrow as they will add another WR in the draft, or in F/A to help assuage his concerns for another WR.

That's just it. If they would have spread out the signings, they could have used more cash up front for bonuses and escrow. The high base salaries in out-years really don't matter much to the Bengals. Having large cap hits doesn't really come into play very much because they never have any dead cap to worry about. And, since salary to the cap is basically cash coming from the TV contract, it doesn't take any liquid assets. Long story, short.... They put themselves in this position and nobody needs to feel sorry for them. My assumption is that they based strategy on the idea that there was nothing they would be able to do to keep Tee given his agent. They've clearly freed up as much cash as humanly possible for Chase and I think they always intended to pay him. I'm also assuming they thought they'd see some slip in Hendrickson's play this past year. Now, Tee has set the table for a return and Hendrickson was the sack leader. Sometimes you wait and you lose.

Here's the thing though.... In my first point I mention the stadium lease and prospect of leaving. If the Bengals ever wanted to win the court of public opinion (not sure they do), this would be the best opportunity to do it. If they marched into the new league year with fresh contracts for Trey, Tee, and Chase and then put a few pieces around them on the lines, Bengal fans would be brimming with optimism. At that point, any tears from teh county about the cost of a stadium lease would fall on deaf ears.

 

[Cincyfan78]

That's just it. If they would have spread out the signings, they could have used more cash up front for bonuses and escrow. The high base salaries in out-years really don't matter much to the Bengals. Having large cap hits doesn't really come into play very much because they never have any dead cap to worry about. And, since salary to the cap is basically cash coming from the TV contract, it doesn't take any liquid assets. Long story, short.... They put themselves in this position and nobody needs to feel sorry for them. My assumption is that they based strategy on the idea that there was nothing they would be able to do to keep Tee given his agent. They've clearly freed up as much cash as humanly possible for Chase and I think they always intended to pay him. I'm also assuming they thought they'd see some slip in Hendrickson's play this past year. Now, Tee has set the table for a return and Hendrickson was the sack leader. Sometimes you wait and you lose.

Here's the thing though.... In my first point I mention the stadium lease and prospect of leaving. If the Bengals ever wanted to win the court of public opinion (not sure they do), this would be the best opportunity to do it. If they marched into the new league year with fresh contracts for Trey, Tee, and Chase and then put a few pieces around them on the lines, Bengal fans would be brimming with optimism. At that point, any tears from teh county about the cost of a stadium lease would fall on deaf ears.

 

[BKBroiler9000]

I’m sick of the broke Bengals crap. It’s lies. They have the cap. They have the money. Multiple outlets and cap savy people like Goodberry have brought this to light. Hell, Joe Burrow literally laid out the salary structures needed to make all the deals work on that podcast, and is willing to rework this deal.

The Bengals have been exposed. The public is aware of their misinformation and they can’t hide behind Geoff Hobson and slices of pie anymore.

The ball is in ownership’s court. Will they choose to invest in the biggest star this city has had since Pete Rose? Do they finally choose to operate like a modern NFL franchise? Are they smart enough/willing to make it all fit? We all have our doubts.

We shouldn’t even be talking about these deals in hindsight. Any other front office in the league would have had those 3 players locked up last year/2-3 years ago.

It’s obvious they never had any real intention to sign Tee. The agent change and Burrow’s media campaign put the pressure squarely on the Blackburns and Duke to figure this out. The tag makes all the sense in the world. The Bengals have nothing really to lose and everything to gain in regards to leverage.

If these deals don’t happen, I truly think Burrow is on borrowed time here. He’s way too big of a star to waste away in Cincinnati for a decade on a 7 win team. When Burrow goes, the fanbase goes, and you might as well sell the team. I don’t believe even the most Stockholm Bengals fans could trust/support this ownership group ever again.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I’m sick of the broke Bengals crap. It’s lies. They have the cap. They have the money. Multiple outlets and cap savy people like Goodberry have brought this to light. Hell, Joe Burrow literally laid out the salary structures needed to make all the deals work on that podcast, and is willing to rework this deal.

The Bengals have been exposed. The public is aware of their misinformation and they can’t hide behind Geoff Hobson and slices of pie anymore.

The ball is in ownership’s court. Will they choose to invest in the biggest star this city has had since Pete Rose? Do they finally choose to operate like a modern NFL franchise? Are they smart enough/willing to make it all fit? We all have our doubts.

We shouldn’t even be talking about these deals in hindsight. Any other front office in the league would have had those 3 players locked up last year/2-3 years ago.

It’s obvious they never had any real intention to sign Tee. The agent change and Burrow’s media campaign put the pressure squarely on the Blackburns and Duke to figure this out. The tag makes all the sense in the world. The Bengals have nothing really to lose and everything to gain in regards to leverage.

If these deals don’t happen, I truly think Burrow is on borrowed time here. He’s way too big of a star to waste away in Cincinnati for a decade on a 7 win team. When Burrow goes, the fanbase goes, and you might as well sell the team. I don’t believe even the most Stockholm Bengals fans could trust/support this ownership group ever again.

No one has put this much public pressure on the Bengals with the kind of clout that Burrow has. Bengals have to realize that if they piss him off, he's as good as gone. Burrow has much more clout than Palmer did - and he's going about it in a very public way that he wants to be here, but he also wants guys to get paid and remain a part of a SB window. He's doing it the right way - and has even stated he is willing to fix his contract to make it happen. Bengals are backed into a corner. They need to swallow their pride on these contract approaches and simply get it done.

If it doesn't work, and it really kills them with the cap - they can point to Burrow/Chase/Higgins/Trey as why they are screwed - and fans will see that, I do think. If they don't get it done, and things don't work out - fans are going to 100% direct their issues at the organization - as they should.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

No one has put this much public pressure on the Bengals with the kind of clout that Burrow has. Bengals have to realize that if they piss him off, he's as good as gone. Burrow has much more clout than Palmer did - and he's going about it in a very public way that he wants to be here, but he also wants guys to get paid and remain a part of a SB window. He's doing it the right way - and has even stated he is willing to fix his contract to make it happen. Bengals are backed into a corner. They need to swallow their pride on these contract approaches and simply get it done.

If it doesn't work, and it really kills them with the cap - they can point to Burrow/Chase/Higgins/Trey as why they are screwed - and fans will see that, I do think. If they don't get it done, and things don't work out - fans are going to 100% direct their issues at the organization - as they should.

So let's say this....we truly feel the Jamar Chase contract is inevitable. If Chase gets signed long term, does Burrow just abandon Chase on this team because Tee and Hendrickson meant that much to him, or does his alliance mostly lie with Chase, or is Joe Burrow about himself alone?

 

[DanBengalfan]

I’m sick of the broke Bengals crap. It’s lies. They have the cap. They have the money. Multiple outlets and cap savy people like Goodberry have brought this to light. Hell, Joe Burrow literally laid out the salary structures needed to make all the deals work on that podcast, and is willing to rework this deal.

The Bengals have been exposed. The public is aware of their misinformation and they can’t hide behind Geoff Hobson and slices of pie anymore.

The ball is in ownership’s court. Will they choose to invest in the biggest star this city has had since Pete Rose? Do they finally choose to operate like a modern NFL franchise? Are they smart enough/willing to make it all fit? We all have our doubts.

We shouldn’t even be talking about these deals in hindsight. Any other front office in the league would have had those 3 players locked up last year/2-3 years ago.

It’s obvious they never had any real intention to sign Tee. The agent change and Burrow’s media campaign put the pressure squarely on the Blackburns and Duke to figure this out. The tag makes all the sense in the world. The Bengals have nothing really to lose and everything to gain in regards to leverage.

If these deals don’t happen, I truly think Burrow is on borrowed time here. He’s way too big of a star to waste away in Cincinnati for a decade on a 7 win team. When Burrow goes, the fanbase goes, and you might as well sell the team. I don’t believe even the most Stockholm Bengals fans could trust/support this ownership group ever again.

most bengals fans aren't as informed as we are, they really haven't been paying attention.

a few years back if you said anything critical about marvin lewis you got lambasted on facebook.

 

[cincygrad]

I’m sick of the broke Bengals crap. It’s lies. They have the cap. They have the money. Multiple outlets and cap savy people like Goodberry have brought this to light. Hell, Joe Burrow literally laid out the salary structures needed to make all the deals work on that podcast, and is willing to rework this deal.

The Bengals have been exposed. The public is aware of their misinformation and they can’t hide behind Geoff Hobson and slices of pie anymore.

The ball is in ownership’s court. Will they choose to invest in the biggest star this city has had since Pete Rose? Do they finally choose to operate like a modern NFL franchise? Are they smart enough/willing to make it all fit? We all have our doubts.

We shouldn’t even be talking about these deals in hindsight. Any other front office in the league would have had those 3 players locked up last year/2-3 years ago.

It’s obvious they never had any real intention to sign Tee. The agent change and Burrow’s media campaign put the pressure squarely on the Blackburns and Duke to figure this out. The tag makes all the sense in the world. The Bengals have nothing really to lose and everything to gain in regards to leverage.

If these deals don’t happen, I truly think Burrow is on borrowed time here. He’s way too big of a star to waste away in Cincinnati for a decade on a 7 win team. When Burrow goes, the fanbase goes, and you might as well sell the team. I don’t believe even the most Stockholm Bengals fans could trust/support this ownership group ever again.

I think this is spot on.... The Bengals made their own beds with the failue to sign guys when they had leverage and I also think that they had no intention of ever signing Tee. After the Bates situation, I think they figured there was no chance and that was one of the major reasons they took the gamble on Burton. Now they are looking at Burton being a complete bust, Tee switching agents, and Burrow mounting a public campaign. All of this during a tenuous time of stadium negotiations. They haven't handled the situation well and there really isn't any reason to think they will handle it well because it's not in their DNA.

I also agree that Burrow is too big a star and we are in a different era than we were back in 2011 with Palmer. I don't believe the city has ever had an athlete that was bigger than the team, and this would be a first. But I absolutely believe there would be no coming back from Burrow leaving - The factors that came into play to land Burrow, then land Chase, nail free agency for once in franchise history, and then go on a super bowl run would never happen again. There really wouldn't be any reason left to root for them.

 

[cincygrad]

So let's say this....we truly feel the Jamar Chase contract is inevitable. If Chase gets signed long term, does Burrow just abandon Chase on this team because Tee and Hendrickson meant that much to him, or does his alliance mostly lie with Chase, or is Joe Burrow about himself alone?

I'm not exactly sure everyone has figured out the leverage that the players have here. If the Bengals tag Tee and refuse to make market offers to Tee and Trey, you could see all 4 of them hold out/hold in until something moves. Ja'Marr could say that he won't sign a long-term deal if they tag Tee and don't negotiate in good faith. He and Tee having the same agent opens up a bunch of possibilities. Joe could hold-in until the contracts are signed. Basically, the four of them could fuck up all of camp. The Bengals need to think long and hard about their strategy to wait until the last possible moment with the hopes that the player will cave.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm not exactly sure everyone has figured out the leverage that the players have here. If the Bengals tag Tee and refuse to make market offers to Tee and Trey, you could see all 4 of them hold out/hold in until something moves. Ja'Marr could say that he won't sign a long-term deal if they tag Tee and don't negotiate in good faith. He and Tee having the same agent opens up a bunch of possibilities. Joe could hold-in until the contracts are signed. Basically, the four of them could fuck up all of camp. The Bengals need to think long and hard about their strategy to wait until the last possible moment with the hopes that the player will cave.

Would not be shocked if there was a coordinated effort between all the players. Either sign us, or trade us, but we are not playing under the current contracts. No way this team could go forward with Chase, Higgins, and Trey all not playing. Not to mention, Burrow would be out there and he would be PISSED.

Bengals have the LEAST amount of cap space committed to non-QB positions in the NFL. If you don't follow Goodberry on X, he's a good follow for Bengals stuff and he's been banging the drum for awhile now that the Bengals have more than enough room, and ability, to make all of these signings not only happen, but still have enough cap to spend upgrading other areas of the team. Bengals' days of crying poor and medial following along is dwindling (other than Hobspin) and with Burrow going out on every Media outlet letting everyone know that this can be done, and he's willing to make it happen...there is no doubt, the pressure is 100% on this organization to figure out a way to make it all happen.

The worst this team can do, and survive this, is sign 2 of the 3 guys. They either need Chase/Trey or Chase/Higgins. I think if you get at least 2 of the 3 done, that buys them some good will and time. But, with a super bowl window open, and Burrow at QB - if there was EVER a time to throw history out the window on how you normally operate - this is it. You get it all done, you upgrade in F/A and then you look those 4 guys in the eyes and tell them - OK, you all got it. Now, you have to drag this team to the S.B. Not playoffs. Not even the AFCC game. We did our part...now - go get it done, it's all on you.

 

[cincygrad]

Would not be shocked if there was a coordinated effort between all the players. Either sign us, or trade us, but we are not playing under the current contracts. No way this team could go forward with Chase, Higgins, and Trey all not playing. Not to mention, Burrow would be out there and he would be PISSED.

Bengals have the LEAST amount of cap space committed to non-QB positions in the NFL. If you don't follow Goodberry on X, he's a good follow for Bengals stuff and he's been banging the drum for awhile now that the Bengals have more than enough room, and ability, to make all of these signings not only happen, but still have enough cap to spend upgrading other areas of the team. Bengals' days of crying poor and medial following along is dwindling (other than Hobspin) and with Burrow going out on every Media outlet letting everyone know that this can be done, and he's willing to make it happen...there is no doubt, the pressure is 100% on this organization to figure out a way to make it all happen.

The worst this team can do, and survive this, is sign 2 of the 3 guys. They either need Chase/Trey or Chase/Higgins. I think if you get at least 2 of the 3 done, that buys them some good will and time. But, with a super bowl window open, and Burrow at QB - if there was EVER a time to throw history out the window on how you normally operate - this is it. You get it all done, you upgrade in F/A and then you look those 4 guys in the eyes and tell them - OK, you all got it. Now, you have to drag this team to the S.B. Not playoffs. Not even the AFCC game. We did our part...now - go get it done, it's all on you.

I'm not certain that Burrow wouldn't join a hold-in at this point. It would be pretty easy for him to claim that his wrist hurts and he doesn't want to risk it in the preseason. It would be bullshit, but so are the Bengals negotiation tactics.

I think this mostly has to do with Tee. If the Bengals were to move on from Trey, I don't sense that Burrow would be up in arms.... Particularly if they signed a few parts in FA. But, losing out on Tee is going to piss him off and he has basically said as much.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm not certain that Burrow wouldn't join a hold-in at this point. It would be pretty easy for him to claim that his wrist hurts and he doesn't want to risk it in the preseason. It would be bullshit, but so are the Bengals negotiation tactics.

I think this mostly has to do with Tee. If the Bengals were to move on from Trey, I don't sense that Burrow would be up in arms.... Particularly if they signed a few parts in FA. But, losing out on Tee is going to piss him off and he has basically said as much.

Agreed, I think that would be Burrow's preference, but if they got Chase/Trey done - I think he would be OK with it because at some point - you have to have guys on the other side of the ball playing at a very high level. Trey is elite. Has been elite now for 3-4 years. While his age does work against him - even if he sees a slight drop off this year to say...6-7 sacks - teams will continue to treat him as a threat, which allows for others to take advantage (assuming they can find the right guys to do so).

It's also much easier to find a replacement WR than it is to find an ELITE rush-DE. Grab a WR in round 1, and you won't quite get Tee production, but you'll likely get very good production out of that slot, and it likely means Gesicki returns for at least 1 more year, which would be fine as well.

In the end, 2 of the 3 need to be signed. That's the minimum.

 

[Cincyfan78]

To add - you might also find a very solid F/A veteran who is willing to come into that #2 slot, knowing he's going to have Burrow throwing him the ball. No doubt that would be a very attractive open position for someone coming in on a 1 year deal, hoping to parlay that into a longer term deal somewhere else.

 

[cincygrad]

Here's one other way to look at it. Tee Higgins is listed as the top FA by most publications. If Trey were an unrestricted free agent right now, he would be somewhere in the top 5. The Bengals have a lot of cap space. The Bengals have ways to control the negotiations with both Trey and Tee. A winning franchise recognizes the talent, the opportunity, and the value. Just get it done.

 

[DanBengalfan]

The Bengals are deathly afraid of bad signings and signing players who are likely to get injured. hence, letting Andrew Whitworth go to greener pastures for example. unless it's the draft of course, we'll draft people straight out of prison.