How to spend the money?!

[deep9er]

don't know what Rogers is worth but i'm guessing 2012 is near the franchise amount? for 2013, i'd think it'll be close to that amount again? but beyond the first two years, i'd think we would't commit nearly as much.

same as all our free agents, you place a value and negotiate to it. you wouldn't "break the bank" on Rogers because we're so "desparate" now.

 

[Flyingiguana]

How do you know? What's the cap in 2015? How's he playing in 4 years?

hahaha lol omg lol

rogers had a fluke year when it came to ints. he's a savvy vet at this point, he isn't a true shutdown corner who will command 10+ a year. i'm assuming that 14 mil would be to up the contract value to help the agents bragging rights. essentially a roster bonus where he would be cut before that 4th year.

if you're talking 3 years guaranteed at like 14 a year, lol omg hahahaha

 

[imac_21]

so we're not supposed to look ahead when signing players? we're supposed to just deal with their last season?

again, you project best you can and come up with a value, then negotiate near those values. but you wouldn't take his last season and say he'll do the same up to and including 2015? or are you saying he will?

are you saying its ok to give Rogers four years at 14M/year, cause the cap is going up? the problem with this thinking is......we have 53 players to manage, other contracts come due by 2015.

Sorry deep, I must have stuttered. What is the salary cap in 2015?

 

[Ray_Dogg]

this is the same thought process they took on Clements.....he has a lot of gas left in the tank. only wasn't Clements around 28? no argument Rogers will be good for the next two years, thats not what i'm asking. but problem is you have to commit to him for five.

when fathter time kicks in, it typically isn't linear.

So you cut him before you pay him the last few years of his deal. It is really that simple. We did the same thing with Clements.

 

[MHSL82]

Sorry deep, I must have stuttered. What is the salary cap in 2015?

Just cause the cap number is unknown doesn't mean we should expect that it'll be so high that we shouldn't have to worry about what kind of cap hit he will get. It's like saying that you could get a timeshare for $300 a month because in a few years you may (but not for certain) be making much more at work. You have to budget for what you have now with a conservative estimate for the future), especially when performance typically goes down the closer you get to the twilight years (obviously it goes up while you're peaking). So you would perhaps pay a good amount the first few years and drop down later, you could always restructure higher later if the prognosis changes and you want to keep him happy or extend him later.

So you cut him before you pay him the last few years of his deal. It is really that simple. We did the same thing with Clements.

With the idea of making a high number in the last few years for fluff and then cut him. That's great if you know you don't want him later. But let's say we do want him for a lesser price and he will leave if we cut him? Yes, this emphasizes the need to develop his backup, but it seems like we'd only do this fluff stuff if we were desperate or didn't have the leverage. I would find out what the minimum amount that would keep him happy (entire deal-wise) and offer that, no fluff. Then, when the last years of his contract comes, extend or release.

 

[deep9er]

So you cut him before you pay him the last few years of his deal. It is really that simple. We did the same thing with Clements.

if it was up to the 49ers yeah, you set it up so little cap hit at the end. but its not only up to the 49ers, Rogers won't sign this kind of contract, he wants a BIG contract.

so now, are you guys are saying pay him $14M/season every season for he length of his contract, then deal with the cap problems in 2015? well theres more than Rogers this season AND they'll be others in the next three. these cap hits can start to pile up fast.

saying the cap rises every season isn't a good reason to give out these deals. we already know Rogers won't be this good when he's 36, and this is how we got into serious cap problems early 2000's.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Just cause the cap number is unknown doesn't mean we should expect that it'll be so high that we shouldn't have to worry about what kind of cap hit he will get. It's like saying that you could get a timeshare for $300 a month because in a few years you may (but not for certain) be making much more at work. You have to budget for what you have now with a conservative estimate for the future), especially when performance typically goes down the closer you get to the twilight years (obviously it goes up while you're peaking). So you would perhaps pay a good amount the first few years and drop down later, you could always restructure higher later if the prognosis changes and you want to keep him happy or extend him later.



With the idea of making a high number in the last few years for fluff and then cut him. That's great if you know you don't want him later. But let's say we do want him for a lesser price and he will leave if we cut him? Yes, this emphasizes the need to develop his backup, but it seems like we'd only do this fluff stuff if we were desperate or didn't have the leverage. I would find out what the minimum amount that would keep him happy (entire deal-wise) and offer that, no fluff. Then, when the last years of his contract comes, extend or release.

We have five guys under contract for 2015. We will have enormous amounts of space to throw in fluff numbers. I don't think any of us want a 35 year old CB starting in 2015. So worrying about him walking if he doesn't want to take a paycut at age 35 doesn't even appear on my list of worries.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

if it was up to the 49ers yeah, you set it up so little cap hit at the end. but its not only up to the 49ers, Rogers won't sign this kind of contract, he wants a BIG contract.

so now, are you guys are saying pay him $14M/season every season for he length of his contract, then deal with the cap problems in 2015? well theres more than Rogers this season AND they'll be others in the next three. these cap hits can start to pile up fast.

saying the cap rises every season isn't a good reason to give out these deals. we already know Rogers won't be this good when he's 36, and this is how we got into serious cap problems early 2000's.

No, if you are the 49ers you set it up so the big cap hit is at the end. Then you cut him and don't pay him. Who is suggesting paying him 14M a year? What team would pay him that? Of course he wants a big deal. The market is flooded with younger CBs. Guess what? He's not going to get a monster deal with guaranteed money for 5 years. It just won't happen. And his cap hit won't pile up in 2015 because HE WILL GET CUT with no guaranteed money at that time which frees up any cap holds.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

I really don't understand creating and worrying about hypothetical situations that aren't even realistic.

 

[imac_21]

If we could sign Rogers to a 5 year, 70M contract with the following breakdowns, would you?

A cap number in 2012 of 5M, in 2013 of 15M, in 2014 of 18M, in 2015 of 15M and in 2016 of 17M but he can be cut in 2015 with only 3M dead money (saves 12M) and can be cut in 2016 with no dead money (saves 17M)

 

[Ray_Dogg]

If we could sign Rogers to a 5 year, 70M contract with the following breakdowns, would you?

A cap number in 2012 of 5M, in 2013 of 15M, in 2014 of 18M, in 2015 of 15M and in 2016 of 17M but he can be cut in 2015 with only 3M dead money (saves 12M) and can be cut in 2016 with no dead money (saves 17M)

No because his 2014 total worries me, I don't think we need to go that high but it would work since you are using the huge reduction from Willis. Nicely done.

 

[imac_21]

No because his 2014 total worries me, I don't think we need to go that high but it would work since you are using the huge reduction from Willis. Nicely done.

Well, there's another kicker to it.

Leon Hall signed an extension last year that was 39M over 5 years with 14 guaranteed.

Joseph got 48.75 over 5 years with 23.5 guaranteed and 12.5 signing.

Dunta Robinson signed a 6 year 57M contract with 22.5 guaranteed (didn't see the signing bonus report)

Nnamdi signed a 5 year 60M contract with 25M guaranteed.

Charles Woodson signed a 5 year 55M extension in 2010.

So the big name, big contract CBs over the last two years have signed contracts that average 7.8 to 12M per year.

Yet deep is talking about paying Rogers 14M per year. There's no way he's getting that much. He'll probably get in the 9M per year range. If he signs for 5 years, it will likely be for in the 40 to 50M range.

He will not make significantly more than Nnamdi, Joseph, Woodson etc.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Agreed.

 

[deep9er]

We have five guys under contract for 2015. We will have enormous amounts of space to throw in fluff numbers. I don't think any of us want a 35 year old CB starting in 2015. So worrying about him walking if he doesn't want to take a paycut at age 35 doesn't even appear on my list of worries.

if you're talking about fluff numbers at the end, no problem here.....IF you can get Rogers to sign it?

but till i read this post, thats not the impression i was getting from you? nor am i getting this impression from Imac?

 

[imac_21]

if you're talking about fluff numbers at the end, no problem here.....IF you can get Rogers to sign it?

but till i read this post, thats not the impression i was getting from you? nor am i getting this impression from Imac?

You keep saying 14M per year. That would make him the highest paid CB in the league. That would be nearly double what Leon Hall makes, and 2M more than Nnamdi makes. It's roughly 5M more than Jonathan Joseph makes.

I think you may need to bring some perspective.

And to suggest we're not talking about fluff numbers is silly. EVERY NFL contract has fluff numbers at the end. It's how the league works. You should know this by now.

 

[dredinis21]

You keep saying 14M per year. That would make him the highest paid CB in the league. That would be nearly double what Leon Hall makes, and 2M more than Nnamdi makes. It's roughly 5M more than Jonathan Joseph makes.

I think you may need to bring some perspective.

And to suggest we're not talking about fluff numbers is silly. EVERY NFL contract has fluff numbers at the end. It's how the league works. You should know this by now.

Hope you brought your umbrella because it is raining cold, hard facts up in here. Nicely done Imac, repped!

 

[deep9er]

You keep saying 14M per year. That would make him the highest paid CB in the league. That would be nearly double what Leon Hall makes, and 2M more than Nnamdi makes. It's roughly 5M more than Jonathan Joseph makes.

I think you may need to bring some perspective.

And to suggest we're not talking about fluff numbers is silly. EVERY NFL contract has fluff numbers at the end. It's how the league works. You should know this by now.

so now i should've read your mind? oh great

i keep saying i think the franchise number is so and so $14M, but now you're saying i'm stating it as fact, thanks a lot. its just another example of how you twist things to fit YOUR argument, the one you always try to start up.

 

[imac_21]

so now i should've read your mind? oh great

i keep saying i think the franchise number is so and so $14M, but now you're saying i'm stating it as fact, thanks a lot. its just another example of how you twist things to fit YOUR argument, the one you always try to start up.

Why are you talking about the franchise number for a long term contract? The franchise tag is a one year deal. If he gets tagged, his salary will be off the books in 4 years.

And no, you shouldn't have read my mind. You should know though that NFL contracts are always backloaded with fluff numbers. You and I have been on the same 49ers message board for 10 years or so. By now it should be a pretty well known fact that I am aware of how NFL contracts are structured. Why would you assume that Ray and I are talking about a contract that no one in the NFL uses?

 

[imac_21]

So deep, would you like to pull any more numbers out of your ass that you don't think we should pay?

Shouldn't you go on record that you wouldn't pay Alex Smith 18M per year and therefore we should let him go?