How many Td's will "the Dart" throw week 1

[mrschaney]

I predict Andy"the DART" Dalton will throw 6 Touchdown passes week 1 v. the Raiders!

 

[JBUCK66]

sounds about right

 

[DanBengalfan]

when he plays well, we refer to him as "Cayenne Peppa"

 

[Kingspoint]

Eifert will get absolutely nothing done against SLB Kahlil Mack.

Travis Carrie has been promoted from Nickel Back to RCB and will have the job of covering Marvin Jones, while LCB DH Hayden will cover A.J. Green. When Sanu is on the field, SCB Keith McGill will be on him.

At 6'3", 211, McGill has the size to cover Sanu in the endzone. That leaves Dalton to try to target Green and Jones against Oakland's two "average" CB's.

I think both of them are on the Receiving end of a Dalton TD Pass, while Jeremy Hill pounds his way in for two scores, as SS Charles Woodsen discovers that he's too old to try to stop backs as good as Hill from doing what he wants on the ground.

"3" technique Dan Williams, and LDE Justin Tuck are very good making the left side of Ken Norton's 4-3 Defense difficult to run on. The Bengals will have their best runs going behind Whitworth and Boling against NT Justin Ellis and Rookie RDE Mario Edwards, Jr.

It's possible that Del Rio and Norton choose to use Pro Bowler LB Kahlil Mack at RDE in place of the Rookie Edwards, making it more difficult to run on that side. It that happens, then Eifert becomes a constant target as Hue should exploit Mack's replacement at SLB, Ray Ray Armstrong.

Using a Fullback in this game by the Bengals is critical. If Justin Ellis lines up on the left shoulder of Bodine, then running between Bodine and Zeitler will lead to good gains for Hill, as Zeitler can match strength for strength with Williams at the "3". If Justin Ellis lines up on the right shoulder of Bodine and Mack is at LDE, then using a Fullback to go behind Boling could open up enough of a Lane to get Hill far past the first level, and possibly past the second level, making for numerous 10+ yard gains. SS Charles Woodsen is useless against Hill.

 

[Kingspoint]

That last paragraph was supposed to read (I have no edit function): "If Justin Ellis lines up on the right shoulder of Bodine and Mack is at LDE,...", not RDE

 

[Kingspoint]

Why don't I have an edit function?

I meant the opposite of that...If Mack was RDE, not LDE.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Eifert will get absolutely nothing done against SLB Kahlil Mack.

Not according to the fantasy report. Granted, this is just an opinion, but Michael Fabiano has some cred as a match up breakdown artist.

Tyler Eifert vs. Oakland Raiders
Eifert hasn't done much at the NFL level, but he deserves some attention this week based on a matchup against the Raiders. Their defense allowed an average of close to nine fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns catches. That's good news for Eifert, who should become a useful red-zone target.

 

[Kingspoint]

Not according to the fantasy report. Granted, this is just an opinion, but Michael Fabiano has some cred as a match up breakdown artist.

Tyler Eifert vs. Oakland Raiders
Eifert hasn't done much at the NFL level, but he deserves some attention this week based on a matchup against the Raiders. Their defense allowed an average of close to nine fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns catches. That's good news for Eifert, who should become a useful red-zone target.

That's a pretty poor analysis by Fabiano, who demonstrates zero creed with this assessment.

What does last year's Oakland Raiders' Defense have to do with this year's version? They had a different Head Coach and a different Defensive Coordinator last season. Fabiano also doesn't mention who was covering those TE's, but simply grouped the Oakland Raiders' Defense in "as a whole". That's not an analysis. It's a lame attempt to throw some words onto paper.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

That's a pretty poor analysis by Fabiano, who demonstrates zero creed with this assessment.

What does last year's Oakland Raiders' Defense have to do with this year's version? They had a different Head Coach and a different Defensive Coordinator last season. Fabiano also doesn't mention who was covering those TE's, but simply grouped the Oakland Raiders' Defense in "as a whole". That's not an analysis. It's a lame attempt to throw some words onto paper.

Perhaps, but with your perspective, wouldn't a new HC and coordinator take some time to get used to? It is feasible that the defense struggles a little the first few weeks.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Andy will throw 3 pick six to the Raiders secondary, on player where we obviously should have simply ran the ball.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Andy will throw 3 pick six to the Raiders secondary, on player where we obviously should have simply ran the ball.

I am going to take a wild stab at the game here along with Dalton and Hill stats.

Bengals 23
Raiders 17

Dalton 19 for 31 for 223 yards, 2 TD's (Eifert and Green), 1 INT
Hill goes 21 carries for 96 yards with 1 TD

Good old Nugent misses one of the extra points but hits about a 43 yard FG.

 

[Kingspoint]

I accidentally said that Burfict's salary goes up $1.3M when it goes down.

 

[Kingspoint]

Perhaps, but with your perspective, wouldn't a new HC and coordinator take some time to get used to? It is feasible that the defense struggles a little the first few weeks.

No doubt that a new HC and DC will take time to get used to. There's also new players to mix in. One of the Bengals hopes is that Guenther will improve a lot over his first season as a DC. There's no telling how DC Ken Norton will perform during his first season ever as a DC.

Back to Eifert for a second. Against any Oakland player not named Mack, Eifert will produce. But, when he gets covered by Mack, Eifert won't have positive production. While it's unusual for a LB to do very well in coverage his first couple of years in the league, Mack was an exception last year. He was the best Rookie Defensive player in the league, and one of the best Linebackers overall in the league. He does it all. It's up to Hue to know when Mack isn't covering Eifert to take advantage of those moments. It should be up to Dalton, but it's clear from last season, that Hue doesn't let Dalton make second (and third and fourth) reads. How Hue is going to make that call, other than as an audible while Dalton is lined up over Center, is going to be a challenge. Since Mack doesn't come off the field, it's going to be a pure guessing game on the part of Jackson. As a result, I see Eifert catching only 5 of 9 targets for 42 yards and no scores, with no more than 7 total yards after-the-catch. Under normal conditons, when Eifert isn't facing someone as good as Mack, I see a typical line as catching 7 of 10 targets for 82 yards, a score, and 26 total yards after the catch.

I apologize for not posting Mack's numbers in coverage from last season in order to support my point as my profootballfocus account expired today. I'll renew it next week.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

You do not have to apologize for not paying for a frivolous service. Mack may good in coverage and most TE's I would agree that Mack would be able to handle them pretty well. Eifert, while not having his break out season yet, I believe to be nearly as good raw talent wise (size, speed, hands, jumping ability) as some of the best in this league. I think he has all the tools to be as good as a Gronk and Graham. He hasn't proven that for me yet, and there is no profootballfocus.com to support that point for me, but I can see it. Eifert routinely gets past or over coverage. Granted, it will take a good QB to utilize him and put the ball in the proper place depending on coverage, but I think his raw abilities are that of Gronk and Graham.

Of course that is a matter of opinion because so far, he has had two years in the league, one season only lasting 1 half of a football game, and the other season limited opportunities behind Gresham as the main target.

 

[Kingspoint]

You do not have to apologize for not paying for a frivolous service. Mack may good in coverage and most TE's I would agree that Mack would be able to handle them pretty well. Eifert, while not having his break out season yet, I believe to be nearly as good raw talent wise (size, speed, hands, jumping ability) as some of the best in this league. I think he has all the tools to be as good as a Gronk and Graham. He hasn't proven that for me yet, and there is no profootballfocus.com to support that point for me, but I can see it. Eifert routinely gets past or over coverage. Granted, it will take a good QB to utilize him and put the ball in the proper place depending on coverage, but I think his raw abilities are that of Gronk and Graham.

Of course that is a matter of opinion because so far, he has had two years in the league, one season only lasting 1 half of a football game, and the other season limited opportunities behind Gresham as the main target.

I believe that Dalton's best throw is the 15-20 yard dart past the LOS at either hash line. His horrible over-throw of Eifert in the pre-season on the exact throw that I'm talking about is something I hope to see very little of. That connection of Dalton to Eifert 20 yards downfield over the middle will be repeated 15 times this season. That's going to make every Free Safety in the league have to decide to leave either Green or Eifert in single-coverage. One thing the Safety has going for him, is that he knows Dalton won't make a second read, so he can commit early without worrying about Dalton pump-faking, ala Eli.

 

[kramer1]

I'll say he throws 1 td.

 

[DanBengalfan]

in all honesty, this is a running team now with Hill and Bernard. He will throw 2 TD and 1 Int.
Any time he tries to carry the team things fall apart. we will get ahead by a little and run the ball ALOT even if it doesn't work.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

in all honesty, this is a running team now with Hill and Bernard. He will throw 2 TD and 1 Int.
Any time he tries to carry the team things fall apart. we will get ahead by a little and run the ball ALOT even if it doesn't work.

God I hope so with Hill as my starting fantasy RB.

 

[cincygrad]

God I hope so with Hill as my starting fantasy RB.

Thanks for jinxing us Crash....

 

[BKBroiler9000]

The Raiders just signed Aldon Smith. So yeah, that happened.