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Help me pull off a 3 way trade. Time sensitive...

femurov

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Normally, I would put this in my all in one keeper league off season thread I have going, but this is time sensitive and kind of came out of nowhere, so there's nothing in the thread leading up to what happened, so it can be an independent question. Plus, as the title states, it is time sensitive.

Long story short, our keeper deadline is tomorrow night. We announce our keepers at the end of our annual summer meeting (Monday, at 6:30pm EST). We can still trade, but it is a bit different after the keeper deadline than before we declare since we are technically making cuts. Our rosters are at 5 now. We keep 2 offensive players and 1 IDP.

Ok, maybe there is a little back story necessary. Sorry for the length, just trying to be thorough and provide as much info as possible...


My team

I was originally planning on making 2 deals when I entered the offseason because I thought I had 4 legit keepers and i could move 2 for better draft positioning. When the Tyreek Hill saga began, I basically chalked him up as a loss and decided I was just going to make 1 deal and try to get a couple of teams in a bidding war. I ended up trading Bell and decided to throw out feelers on Hill after the 4 game news came out to see what I could get.

My keepers are...

Hill, ODB, Conner, Aaron Rodgers and an IDP

My draft picks...

1.7, 2.1, 2.7, 2.9, 3.12, 4.1, 4.6, 4.9, 5.12, 6.1, 6.7, 7.3, 7.12, 8.1, 10.1, a couple in the 11th, my 12, then my 13 is my last pick.


Team 1

He is a big wheeler and dealer and is very unpredictable. We have made a lot of deals and he has only been in the league about 4 or 5 years and we made a deadline deal last year where talks started just hours before the deadline. This offseason, he and I began chatter about OBD right after he got traded to Cleveland. In the weeks leading up to me trading Bell, I hit him up (like he said to if I was getting close to a deal) and heard nothing back... a couple times. I trade Bell and he hit me up a few days later asking about Beckham. I tell him I traded Bell and wasn't looking to move Beckham now, but I would trade Hill. I have an offer that he is sleeping on and we will talk about tomorrow. I'd say there is a good chance that we will come up with some sort of deal. I offered Hill and my 2nd (#13 overall) for his 1st (#4 overall), essentially. He still wants Beckham, though.

His keepers are...

Melvin Gordon, AJ Green, Phillip Lindsay, and 2 IDPs.

His draft picks...

1.4, no 2nd, no 3rd, no 4th, 5.4, 6.9, and so on until the 10th, where he has 2, then doubles again in both the 18th and 19th.



Team 2

My roommate and best friend and we have made countless deals over the years. Also a big wheeler and dealer. It came up tonight that he really wants picks and was dangling Keenan Allen at another dude who he thought was biting, but bailed at the last minute. I asked him about Alvin Kamara and he offered him and his 9th for ODB and a 2nd (he didn't specify which one). I asked him if he would do the same for Conner and he hesitated and said he didn't like him as much, but he likes ODB more. I told him I was thinking 3 way (I had told him I was close to a deal with team 2.)

His keepers are...

Kamara, David Johnson (who he loves), Keenan Allen, George Kittle, IDP

His picks are...

2.5, 3.8, 6.5, 7.8, 8.5, 3 9ths, and then 1 in each of the rest except he doubles in the 18th.








Here's what I am thinking...


I give...

Conner, ODB, Hill, a 2nd (not sure which one yet)


I get...

Gordon, Kamara, 1.4 (from team 1)



Team 1 gives...

Gordon, 1.4


Team 1 gets...

Conner, Hill, later pick (9th, maybe)



Team 2 gives...

Kamara, later pick (aforementioned 9th, maybe)


Team 2 gets...

ODB, 2nd (not sure which one yet)




That is the basic structure of the deal. I think team 2 needs a little something added and Team 1 probably needs something added. I feel like I am able to come off some picks to even things out. There has to be an even number of picks exchanged. I think I am close, but it needs a little tweaking. As is, I think it is a win for me. I improve my keepers and draft position. What can I afford to give up to even it out for the other two guys before it gets to be too much? Would keeping the 24 year old Conner and 25 year old Hill for as long as he wants to be enough for him to totally give up on this draft (which he has done in the past and actually won the league after doing a few years back)?
 

femurov

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So, it looks like I left out the idea that I could switch ODB and Conner and that may be enough to sway him to take a deal and try to use another pick to even it out for Team 2, who would want a little something thrown in. I think I can afford to throw in up to a 3rd and take back the 9th and it would still be worth it for me.

Basically, I would come out of this keeping Kamara and Gordon and having 4 of the top 21 picks and still have 3 4th round picks and extras in the 6th and 7th and so on. I may even be able to afford a 3rd and 5th.
 

eaglesnut

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If you can come out with Gordon and Kamara and 1.4 then you should manipulate the rest of the picks however you need to to get there. They are the best two players moving in these deals.

Good luck, because if I was either of the other two I wouldn't want to do the deal after seeing what you end up with compared to us.
 

Stomp

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If i were team 1 i'd probably ask for Hill, Conner, and a 2nd next year. Missing all those picks he really needs to be focused on next year. He should keep Hill and trade Conner after the draft for someone with upside or another pick.

As far as your team goes i like the plan.
 

tlance

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If you can come out with Gordon and Kamara and 1.4 then you should manipulate the rest of the picks however you need to to get there. They are the best two players moving in these deals.

Good luck, because if I was either of the other two I wouldn't want to do the deal after seeing what you end up with compared to us.

Agreed.

At this moment in time, I don’t believe Hill has much keeper trade value because of the suspension possibility. There are 24 offensive keepers and he could miss half the season or more.

If you are able to deal him as if he is that elite keeper option then it is great deal for you.

I think team 2’s return is actually very reasonable. ODB + strong pick up grade is a fair price for Kamara. It is team 1 that I think is getting hosed in this one giving both Gordon and a high pick.

But, perhaps he is a risk lover and a Chief lover. If you can make it happen, do it!
 

FaCe-LeE-uS

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Helluva way to get someone's attention...

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Yellow Fuzzies

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If you can come out with Gordon and Kamara and 1.4 then you should manipulate the rest of the picks however you need to to get there. They are the best two players moving in these deals.

Good luck, because if I was either of the other two I wouldn't want to do the deal after seeing what you end up with compared to us.
I agree with Eaglesnut and Tlance. Kamara, Gaordon and the 1.4 is a great haul in this deal.I would try to make it work. Hill's situation is iffy and OBJ has been a bit injury stricken lately.
 

MilkSpiller22

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I think you have a better chance taking away all the draft picks... They are unnecessary and makes it too onesided for you...
 

HaroldSeattle

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You'd be making out like a bandit if you pull that trade off. You'd end up with the 2 players with the highest ADP plus the 1.4.
 

femurov

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... and it all fell to shit. Oh well. Thanks for the input guys.
 

eaglesnut

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... and it all fell to shit. Oh well. Thanks for the input guys.
Thanks for the fucking novel. Took my whole shit this morning to read it.:D

Haha

I was rooting for you, but I think most of us suspected it was too good to be true.

You and the roommate can probably make a Kamara for Beckham trade work, no?

Then Conner and Hill for Gordon with the other guy? If you really want 1.4, then throw in your highest 2nd or some other pick sweeteners.

Upgrading from Conner to either of those other backs would be worth the loss of Hill since you can't keep him.
 
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