Hart trophy finalists

[dash]

Stephen Whyno @SWhyno
Hart Trophy finalists: #Habs' Carey Price, #Caps' Alex Ovechkin and #Isles' John Tavares.

/east coast bias
//Price should win

 

[elocomotive]

Stephen Whyno @SWhyno
Hart Trophy finalists: #Habs' Carey Price, #Caps' Alex Ovechkin and #Isles' John Tavares.

/east coast bias
//Price should win

I have a hard time with goalies being nominated for and/or winning this award.

The best goalie is typically about 1% better (if that) than the next several guys. Price has 7 guys within 1% of his save percentage this year. So basically if Holtby, Rinne, or Mason played for the Habs, their season would be unlikely to be significantly different than the one they played. It's not insignificant because that difference is about 1 less goal allowed every 3 or 4 games, but it's not overwhelming either.

By comparison, Ovechkin had 23% more goals than Stamkos, the 2nd place guy. Tavares has 12% more points than the 8th place guy on that list. Those are more sizable differences.

This is why the cap space used for and thinking on goalies has shifted in recent years. Because (sorry 43 and Matty) they don't matter as much since the difference between the best goalie and an average goalie is small. Whereas the difference between a top forward and your average forward is tremendous.

I wish they'd nominate more than three - Crosby and Voracek are certainly deserving this year.

 

[Darkstone42]

I have a hard time with goalies being nominated for and/or winning this award.

The best goalie is typically about 1% better (if that) than the next several guys. Price has 7 guys within 1% of his save percentage this year. So basically if Holtby, Rinne, or Mason played for the Habs, their season would be unlikely to be significantly different than the one they played. It's not insignificant because that difference is about 1 less goal allowed every 3 or 4 games, but it's not overwhelming either.

By comparison, Ovechkin had 23% more goals than Stamkos, the 2nd place guy. Tavares has 12% more points than the 8th place guy on that list. Those are more sizable differences.

This is why the cap space used for and thinking on goalies has shifted in recent years. Because (sorry 43 and Matty) they don't matter as much since the difference between the best goalie and an average goalie is small. Whereas the difference between a top forward and your average forward is tremendous.

I wish they'd nominate more than three - Crosby and Voracek are certainly deserving this year.

Do they just nominate three, or do the writers vote from the whole pool, and then they list the top three as the nominees?

 

[elocomotive]

Do they just nominate three, or do the writers vote from the whole pool, and then they list the top three as the nominees?

I think it might be the latter, D'stone, but I don't know for sure and after almost a minute and a half of Google searching I can't find any further details. What do you expect me to do, devote 4 minutes of searching to this?!?

 

[beantownmaniac]

Well, goalies are the only players on the ice the whole 60 minutes, and Price is the reason the Habs had as good a record as they did.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I have a hard time with goalies being nominated for and/or winning this award.

The best goalie is typically about 1% better (if that) than the next several guys. Price has 7 guys within 1% of his save percentage this year. So basically if Holtby, Rinne, or Mason played for the Habs, their season would be unlikely to be significantly different than the one they played. It's not insignificant because that difference is about 1 less goal allowed every 3 or 4 games, but it's not overwhelming either.

Do you mean there are 7 guys between .923 and .932? I count 5. Also, Price faced more shots than all five of them except for Holtby (who had the lowest sv% of those at .923). Without Price, Montreal is likely a wild card at best, and maybe even more likely on the outside looking in.

Also worth mentioning that many of Price's worst performances of the season came after the Habs had clinched a playoff spot.

He's the MVP.

 

[elocomotive]

Do you mean there are 7 guys between .923 and .932? I count 5. Also, Price faced more shots than all five of them except for Holtby (who had the lowest sv% of those at .923). Without Price, Montreal is likely a wild card at best, and maybe even more likely on the outside looking in.

There are 9 goalies that posted a GAA of .923 to .933 this season. In order - Price, Dubnyk, Mason, Talbo, Schneider, Crawford, Holtby, Rinne, and Anderson.

I agree that if Price was not in the net, Montreal is a wild card at best, because I don't think it's advisable to play an entire season with the goalie pulled.

 

[elocomotive]

The best evidence I could point to is probably Lundqvist. He wasn't in the cage for the Rangers for much of the year and Talbot stepped in just fine in his absence.

My point is the drop off between the best goalie in the league and an average NHL goalie is not large. The drop off between the top scorers in the league and an average NHL forward is huge.

Therefore, I can't say a goalie should be the MVP because the difference in team performance over a long stretch of games or a season isn't sizable. Price had a GREAT season. But I don't think he should win the Hart nor did I think he actually will.

 

[forty_three]

I have a hard time with goalies being nominated for and/or winning this award.

The best goalie is typically about 1% better (if that) than the next several guys. Price has 7 guys within 1% of his save percentage this year. So basically if Holtby, Rinne, or Mason played for the Habs, their season would be unlikely to be significantly different than the one they played. It's not insignificant because that difference is about 1 less goal allowed every 3 or 4 games, but it's not overwhelming either.

By comparison, Ovechkin had 23% more goals than Stamkos, the 2nd place guy. Tavares has 12% more points than the 8th place guy on that list. Those are more sizable differences.

This is why the cap space used for and thinking on goalies has shifted in recent years. Because (sorry 43 and Matty) they don't matter as much since the difference between the best goalie and an average goalie is small. Whereas the difference between a top forward and your average forward is tremendous.

I wish they'd nominate more than three - Crosby and Voracek are certainly deserving this year.

What are a team's chances of winning if a goalie has an off night as opposed to their chances if their top forward has a bad one?

The award isn't for the statistically best player in the league, it's for the guy most valuable to his team.


And playing goalie is a lot more complicated than "go stand over there". Mason would not have had a similar season if he played in Montreal's system. Mason does not work in roaming, mobile defensive systems. The best goalies use their talents to enhance the system played in front of them.

Dubnyk is not a scrub, he just needed the right team to fit his style. Conversely, Lundquist would get destroyed on the Oilers.

Ovechkin could score wherever he plays.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

There are 9 goalies that posted a GAA of .923 to .933 this season. In order - Price, Dubnyk, Mason, Talbo, Schneider, Crawford, Holtby, Rinne, and Anderson.

I agree that if Price was not in the net, Montreal is a wild card at best, because I don't think it's advisable to play an entire season with the goalie pulled.

Talbot and Anderson started 34 and 35 games, respectively. Playing in 40% of games isn't a large enough sample size to rank them with the best of the season. In that case, Chris Driedger should win everything this year with his 1.000 sv%.

 

[elocomotive]

The award isn't for the statistically best player in the league, it's for the guy most valuable to his team.

There is a high correlation between those two things though.

And playing goalie is a lot more complicated than "go stand over there". Mason would not have had a similar season if he played in Montreal's system. Mason does not work in roaming, mobile defensive systems. The best goalies use their talents to enhance the system played in front of them.

Dubnyk is not a scrub, he just needed the right team to fit his style. Conversely, Lundquist would get destroyed on the Oilers.

Ovechkin could score wherever he plays.

Surely any player's performance can be improved or can decline based on the system they are in. Ovechkin certainly wasn't at his best when Hunter was the coach. And I'm not saying goalies don't matter or you can just sub out one for another. But I do think they matter less at the NHL level.

Just my opinion. Good post, 43.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

The best evidence I could point to is probably Lundqvist. He wasn't in the cage for the Rangers for much of the year and Talbot stepped in just fine in his absence.

My point is the drop off between the best goalie in the league and an average NHL goalie is not large. The drop off between the top scorers in the league and an average NHL forward is huge.

Therefore, I can't say a goalie should be the MVP because the difference in team performance over a long stretch of games or a season isn't sizable. Price had a GREAT season. But I don't think he should win the Hart nor did I think he actually will.

Does Minnesota shoot from bottom third of the league on New Years Day to Cup contender without Dubnyk?

Compare Nashville's season to last year with Rinne out.

Why can't St. Louis get past the first round?

The jump off is real, man.

 

[elocomotive]

Talbot and Anderson started 34 and 35 games, respectively. Playing in 40% of games isn't a large enough sample size to rank them with the best of the season. In that case, Chris Driedger should win everything this year with his 1.000 sv%.

Disagree. If they played in 5 games or 11 games. Sure. I get your point. But nearly half a season is a pretty good sample, unless you think that Talbot or Anderson would have just dropped off completely with another 10 or 15 starts.

 

[forty_three]

Surely any player's performance can be improved or can decline based on the system they are in. Ovechkin certainly wasn't at his best when Hunter was the coach. And I'm not saying goalies don't matter or you can just sub out one for another. But I do think they matter less at the NHL level.

Just my opinion. Good post, 43.

I get ya, but my aim was to say that most goalies work very hard to fit into the systems they play in, and it's a lot harder for a goalie to get a system than a forward. A goalie has to practice his own game and work on mechanics PLUS pay attention to what the D and F corps are working on. Forwards don't necessarily have to pay attention to anything the goalie coach is doing.

There's just too much that goes into it to truly say there's not much gap between the best and the middle of the pack.

Plus, how many times have we seen some plug play with a top end player and go through the roof? The one I always remember is Brent Fedyk who almost was a star playing with Recchi and Lindros. Hell, this year, Derek Dorsett almost looked like an NHL player when out with the Sedins. What happened to Alex Semin when he didn't have Backsrtom passing to him?

That may tend to support the idea that there isn't much difference between the best forwards and the middle of the pack there either. Forwards might be "interchangeable". And pure talent may not necessarily be the reason for someone to score 23% more than the "next guy".

"Most valuable to his team"

 

[Vadered]

I don't like save percentage is a good stat to compare to goals scored because it measures the likelihood of an expected event (a goalie makes a save) vs. the likelihood of an unexpected event (a shooter scores, and thus a goalie DOESN'T make a save). You'd want to see what percentage of shots a goalie lets through (so 1 - save percentage) to compare to goals. Using this, the difference in a goalie with a save percentage of .900 and one with a save percentage .910 is 10%, not 1%. This is a more reasonable interpretation for this type of analysis, I think, though I feel it's still very imperfect. For example, a .950 goalie that gives up a rebound off of every shot is probably actually worse than a .900 goalie who doesn't let off rebounds or plays the puck off of every save.

That said, Elo might still very well be right, because Price's .932 is still only 14ish % better than .922 would be. Furthermore, I haven't watched enough hockey to say whether or not any particular player is a more deserving MVP candidate this year.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Disagree. If they played in 5 games or 11 games. Sure. I get your point. But nearly half a season is a pretty good sample, unless you think that Talbot or Anderson would have just dropped off completely with another 10 or 15 starts.

Even 10 or 15 more starts for those guys doesn't bring them near Price's 66 starts. The elite goalies all start around 65 games a season. A lot can change over an extra 30 starts.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I'll agree a bit with Eloco. For goalies, it's like when QBs get the MVP in football. Well no shit, of course they are more valuable than other positions. Make an award for them and then let everyone else compete. For a goaltender to win the MVP they need to have an all time great season, not simply be the best goaltender.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I'll agree a bit with Eloco. For goalies, it's like when QBs get the MVP in football. Well no shit, of course they are more valuable than other positions. Make an award for them and then let everyone else compete. For a goaltender to win the MVP they need to have an all time great season, not simply be the best goaltender.

Only three goalies in history have played 50-plus games in a season and had a sv% of .933 or higher - Hasek, Thomas and now Price. He had an all time great season.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Only three goalies in history have played 50-plus games in a season and had a sv% of .933 or higher - Hasek, Thomas and now Price. He had an all time great season.

I don't put nearly as much stock into save percentage as others but I also won't lose sleep if Price wins it. If I were a voter though I would weight it heavily in favor of skaters, just my opinion.

 

[Puck082]

I think Price gets this but JT had 35 more points than the next guy on the Islanders.....