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I'm a fan of Goodberry. I like how he digs deeper than just the tape or even just the workouts. They have a nice little formula and it's been right far more often than wrong.
Lot's of production red flags. I think he is a lot like Murphy in that he has 1st round physical traits. Teams are always going to hedge on the side of "ability" when they are elite looking...but, what I feel so many teams (not just the Bengals) miss is that they had those abilities against guys who they should have DOMINATED - and they didn't. Why does everyone suddenly think that they will dominate against guys who are as good as, or better in some cases, than they are?What stands out to me is Mykel Williams is ranked #171. That is crazy low for someone expected to go in the 1st. He has shown up on our mocks numerous times.
Early-Mid 1st rounders need to be Week 1 starters IMO. You can take more risk late in the 1st round.To add - I get taking a guy as a 2-3 year project guy. Murphy was talked a lot about being a guy that wasn't expected to really produce much in year 1, and likely year 2...they were talking years 3-4-5...we'll see if that pans out...but I feel like with 1st round guys, most teams just can't afford to take guys who take 2-3 years to develop. That's fine if it's a 6th rounder you are taking a flyer on (Matt Lee comes to mind)...and where you can likely sign them to a 2nd contract pretty cheap before they get into the meat of their ability.
But when you are drafting guys in rounds 1-2-3: They need to be starter level guys much sooner than later. At worst, they should be top tier rotational guys right off the bat. To do it any other way is to continually put your organization behind the 8-ball with drafting.
If you are a team that is pretty well put together, I"d agree. The Bengals are not in that area. They need guys up and down the roster that can help right now. That might mean taking a guy with a bit lower ceiling, but a much higher floor. I'm OK with that, but where they are, at 17, I feel like they will have multiple options to grab a guy that can help right now.Early-Mid 1st rounders need to be Week 1 starters IMO. You can take more risk late in the 1st round.