GDT 10/17 2010 @ 2011 NLCS Game 3

[tzill]

Maybe it's from watching so many Sharks meltdowns. But I don't worry about this team. They'll fight back tomorrow. when they get this back to SF anything can happen. We'll fight back. St. Louis is tough, but so are our boys.

Go Timmay go!!!

I agree. Ever since we crawled out of the grave vs. the Reds, I feel like we've been playing with house money. Great season no matter what happens. That said, I hope someone spikes Holliday.

 

[tzill]

0-2 count. Followed by:

The predictable high fastball.
Curve ball off the plate - too wide to setup the next pitch.
Curve ball on the plate......
......to a lefty?

Not sure what the book is on Carpenter, but the 1-2 pitch probably should have been a change up on the black (or in the dirt), and, if necessary, followed by a backdoor slider, and then another high fastball on the black.

I would avoid the low inside strike to most lefties, wouldn't you?

As a RHP, hell yes. I got eaten up going low and inside. Buster is still a young ML catcher.

 

[gp956]

This has been a pet concern of mine for a while now. I do understand that shit happens and sometimes things just don't break in your direction ... but .... somethings I notice about this years SP ....

1. We tend to give up quite a few hits after getting two strikes on a batter. I have to guess it's much higher than league norms. I don't know how to check for that either.
2. I also notice that many of the two strike hits seem to be crushed. They all aren't just flares off the end of the bat.
3. Here we have Carpenter at a 1-2 count. He's a replacement for Beltran. I would have expected that he'd be in a defensive posture at that point. He crushed that ball. Simply crushed it. This also seems to happen a little more than I would expect. I also wondered why Cain became concerned with the runner at first. Maybe not related but he throws the pickoff attempt away and then gets the very next pitched hammered.
4. This is Buster's real first 'entire' season behind the plate for us. I tend to see most of the Giant games via GAMEDAY. This allowes be to stay linked to the board and also enjoy the game. GAMEDAY displays pitch sequences for all batters. To me the sequences seem to contain a lot of repetition. Can't tell you how many times you see the same pitch being thrown 3-4-5 times in a row. Just seems to be that the opposing batters are much too comfortable on 2 strike counts.

With that said ..... Timmy will shut them down today and we'll score some runs .... and maybe by the grace of a god, any god, Pence will start hitting ...

What bothers me is in the locker room a reporter asked Posey about the pitch to Carpenter, and Buster insisted there was nothing wrong with the call, but said Cain's pitch lacked "bite". True enough, it was a lazy slider with more of a hump than you'd like (so much so that on first look it looked like a curve ball to me), but that said, why would you throw a slider targeting anywhere in the zone in a two strike count? Carpenter wasn't at all setup for it, he easily spit on the slider/curve off the plate on 1-2, and with slider speed, you've just made Carpenter's bat that much quicker, and put it in a place most lefties love. He's defending a horseshit call and simultaneously throwing Matty under the bus. Do not like that shit.

 

[SF11704]

What bothers me is in the locker room a reporter asked Posey about the pitch to Carpenter, and Buster insisted there was nothing wrong with the call, but said Cain's pitch lacked "bite". True enough, it was a lazy slider with more of a hump than you'd like (so much so that on first look it looked like a curve ball to me), but that said, why would you throw a slider targeting anywhere in the zone in a two strike count? Carpenter wasn't at all setup for it, he easily spit on the slider/curve off the plate on 1-2, and with slider speed, you've just made Carpenter's bat that much quicker, and put it in a place most lefties love. He's defending a horseshit call and simultaneously throwing Matty under the bus. Do not like that shit.

Young catcher and young staff. Maybe they both need to mature to some extent. I'm not sure how comfortable these young pitchers are shaking off the catcher. I just think that when you have two strikes on the hitter you have to make them reach for something outside the zone. I also think that you need to mix speed and location. Yeah we all make mistakes and targeting a specific area for a pitch is difficult. I just feel that with two strikes you do everything possible to make them reach for it. Worst case should be a flare hit off the end of the bat or the handle. I just feel that this 'shit' happens a little too much to us. That said .... today is another day. All I want is to bring it back to SF and take our chances from there. Even if we are down 1 when we get home I still like our chances with Tron and Cain.

 

[gp956]

So Bochy postgame said they might look at the order. How's it going to look?

My optimum:

Oxy
Pick
Panda
MVP
Scoots
Fish
Jerk
Whitey

My quick fix:

Oxy
Scoots
MVP
Panda
Pick
Jerk
Whitey
Fish

 

[gp956]

Young catcher and young staff. Maybe they both need to mature to some extent. I'm not sure how comfortable these young pitchers are shaking off the catcher. I just think that when you have two strikes on the hitter you have to make them reach for something outside the zone. I also think that you need to mix speed and location. Yeah we all make mistakes and targeting a specific area for a pitch is difficult. I just feel that with two strikes you do everything possible to make them reach for it. Worst case should be a flare hit off the end of the bat or the handle. I just feel that this 'shit' happens a little too much to us. That said .... today is another day. All I want is to bring it back to SF and take our chances from there. Even if we are down 1 when we get home I still like our chances with Tron and Cain.

Well, we know even the veteran Zito admitted he didn't shake Buster off when he should have.

 

[SF11704]

I'm just not sure that 'changing' the order actually 'fixes' the order. What our changes do is move Jerk out of what seems to be the 'opportunity' slot. Still doesn't mean Jerk will hit any better in another position. At what stage, if ever, do we rest Jerk and go with Shark.

 

[tzill]

So Bochy postgame said they might look at the order. How's it going to look?

My optimum:

Oxy
Pick
Panda
MVP
Scoots
Fish
Jerk
Whitey

My quick fix:

Oxy
Scoots
MVP
Panda
Pick
Jerk
Whitey
Fish

I think it'll look more like this:

Oxy
Moped
Panda
MVP
Chez3
Herk
Shark
Fish

 

[tzill]

I'm just not sure that 'changing' the order actually 'fixes' the order. What our changes do is move Jerk out of what seems to be the 'opportunity' slot. Still doesn't mean Jerk will hit any better in another position. At what stage, if ever, do we rest Jerk and go with Shark.

There's the other side of the coin too: Moving Herk out of the 5 spot and Chez3 into it should give us better production out of the 5 hole. Doesn't mean Herk will hit better at 6, but we should expect more production out of the 5. And maybe less walks to Buster. If Herk continues to struggle, you move him to 7 and Shark to 6.

 

[gp956]

I'm just not sure that 'changing' the order actually 'fixes' the order. What our changes do is move Jerk out of what seems to be the 'opportunity' slot. Still doesn't mean Jerk will hit any better in another position. At what stage, if ever, do we rest Jerk and go with Shark.

It's not that Jerk will hit better, you're just providing a little more protection for Buster and getting the higher OBP/SLG guys up the order, which is always a good thing. But you're right, over a 162 game season the order is, at best, a tertiary factor.

 

[gp956]

I think it'll look more like this:

Oxy
Moped
Panda
MVP
Chez3
Herk
Shark
Fish

For today, perhaps.

 

[SF11704]

Things like this are very tough calls. With the NYY on the brink of elimination they sat AROD. 0-18 with 12 K's. Their thought is : no production (from any spot) ... need to try 'something else'. In this case it was someone else. I like Herk .... but with very little production ... do you 'replace' him with Blanco and put Pick in left.

 

[gp956]

Things like this are very tough calls. With the NYY on the brink of elimination they sat AROD. 0-18 with 12 K's. Their thought is : no production (from any spot) ... need to try 'something else'. In this case it was someone else. I like Herk .... but with very little production ... do you 'replace' him with Blanco and put Pick in left.

I can't see Bochy doing that, at this point. That would be throwing Sabean under the bus a little bit. Sure would have been nice to have Melky around, though.

 

[SF11704]

I can't see Bochy doing that, at this point. That would be throwing Sabean under the bus a little bit. Sure would have been nice to have Melky around, though.

Actually wanted to say that earlier ... but didn't want to offend anyone .... his offense could really have been used here. Games 1 and 3 were all in our grasp at some point and we just didn't have enough to pull it in. Had Loshe on the ropes quite a few times and were never able to complete the deal.

But ... give us at least one win here and I'll take our chances at home

 

[tzill]

Actually wanted to say that earlier ... but didn't want to offend anyone .... his offense could really have been used here. Games 1 and 3 were all in our grasp at some point and we just didn't have enough to pull it in. Had Loshe on the ropes quite a few times and were never able to complete the deal.

But ... give us at least one win here and I'll take our chances at home

I don't think you can assume anything about what Melky would have contributed. Dude hasn't faced live pitching in months, and he's a big routine guy. He might have pinch hit once or twice, but starting in LF? Doubtful.

Then, you'd have to factor in the clubhouse/media distraction.

All in all, probably not worth it. It's too bad Pence is the suck right now, but it's pretty unlikely Melkman would've been a net positive.

Edit: unless you include this --

 

[gp956]

I don't think you can assume anything about what Melky would have contributed. Dude hasn't faced live pitching in months, and he's a big routine guy. He might have pinch hit once or twice, but starting in LF? Doubtful.

Then, you'd have to factor in the clubhouse/media distraction.

All in all, probably not worth it. It's too bad Pence is the suck right now, but it's pretty unlikely Melkman would've been a net positive.

Edit: unless you include this --

He didn't have to start from the getgo. He could have taken Huff's spot. He'd have been ready to contribute now, if the Giants had allowed him to see live pitching at first availability.

We discussed this, it was a risk either way. But for those that wanted Melky on the playoff roster, this was the exact scenario we envisioned. Not saying even in this scenario it would work out better, but I would have given luck a chance.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I think it'll look more like this:

Oxy
Moped
Panda
MVP
Chez3
Herk
Shark
Fish

The way I see it the problem has been hitting w/risp from the 5/6 spots (less so even the 3/4 ) Both Blanco and Craw are hitting well right now... And Belt is too without risp - i dont think they should take Belt out of the lineup, if we see Chez he should essentially replace Herk (but i know Boch says he doesnt want to put Belt in the OF right now). If Chez is in there today one way or the other though i wont complain. I like this however:

Oxy
Blanco/Belt
Panda
MVP
Scoot
Blanco/Belt
Herk
Fish

With Blanco at the 2 there's even more speed at the top, with Belt there you've got a very good obp guy (although he is not getting the close 3-2 calls he got all season) and Scoot is just money so I think it's worth a shot moving him to the 5.

I think we win today no matter what, but i wouldnt be surprised if we dont see any changes. If we lose today because we can't score again I think it's obvious we'll see some fairly drastic changes for Game 5.

Anyone think Nady gets a shot over Herk?

 

[gp956]

The way I see it the problem has been hitting w/risp from the 5/6 spots (less so even the 3/4 ) Both Blanco and Craw are hitting well right now... And Belt is too without risp - i dont think they should take Belt out of the lineup, if we see Chez he should essentially replace Herk (but i know Boch says he doesnt want to put Belt in the OF right now). If Chez is in there today one way or the other though i wont complain. I like this however:

Oxy
Blanco/Belt
Panda
MVP
Scoot
Blanco/Belt
Herk
Fish

With Blanco at the 2 there's even more speed at the top, with Belt there you've got a very good obp guy (although he is not getting the close 3-2 calls he got all season) and Scoot is just money so I think it's worth a shot moving him to the 5.

I think we win today no matter what, but i wouldnt be surprised if we dont see any changes. If we lose today because we can't score again I think it's obvious we'll see some fairly drastic changes for Game 5.

Anyone think Nady gets a shot over Herk?

10% chance of that, I think. I'd be tempted, if not for the give up on defense. This is a must win game, all hands on deck.

 

[SF11704]

4 hours 15 minutes to game time. I'm so freaking nervous. Really want this game. It's as close to a must win as I want to get. Really don't want to be put in a position where we have also take them 3 straight. Would really take a lot of pressure of of tomorrow if we win today. Brings us back to SF no mater what happens.

This almost has the feeling of Tron's game three in CINN. Not quite elimination but don't want to be on that spot tomorrow. Would love to see Timmay's A++++ game tonight. No earned runs, 2 hits with about 13Ks. Vintage 2008! 5-0 Good Guys.

 

[tzill]

4 hours 15 minutes to game time. I'm so freaking nervous. Really want this game. It's as close to a must win as I want to get. Really don't want to be put in a position where we have also take them 3 straight. Would really take a lot of pressure of of tomorrow if we win today. Brings us back to SF no mater what happens.

This almost has the feeling of Tron's game three in CINN. Not quite elimination but don't want to be on that spot tomorrow. Would love to see Timmay's A++++ game tonight. No earned runs, 2 hits with about 13Ks. Vintage 2008! 5-0 Good Guys.

I think once the game starts I'll start feeling it, but right now I keep thinking that we're playing with house money, and the Brandons are getting valuable playoff experience.

That said, fuck the Turdinals.