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SmokingMonkey
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Starting a thread to talk NFL gambling
2024-25 Season-long props on my slip:
Baker Mayfield over 3650 passing yards (DK +100)
- just threw for 4k
- returning same cast of weapons
- Would only need 228/game if he sits one out, 215 if he plays all 17
Jayden Daniels over 3150 passing yards (DK +110)
- think he'll be above 200 yds/game; would need 210/gm if he misses 2 games
- like him for OROY too, better odds on ESPNBet at +500 vs +450 on DK
Josh Allen over 480 rush yds (DK -125) and over 3750 pass yds (DK -120)
- injury would be only thing that stops him from hitting both of these lines
- I don't buy the narrative that Diggs made Allen, think he'll make it work with the squad he's got
Lamar Jackson over 675 rush yds (DK -135)
- some concern King Henry takes over the rushing att for BAL and they dial back LJax
- same as Allen, injury only thing that should prevent this from hitting
Malik Nabors most rookie rec yds (DK +500)
- should be heavily targeted on a team that's not playing with a lead very often
Dak most passing yards (FD +950)
- weak RB room
- threw for 4.5k last yr for 3rd most
- cowboys think they are in a win-now/ title contender window
Brian Thomas Jr most rookie rec yds (FD +1600)
- Jag WRs/TLaw left a lot of meat on the bones last yr
- I don't think Gabe Davis is more than just a bit player, BTJr could easily take over majority of outside snaps while Kirk mans the slot
JaLynn Polk most rookie rec yds (espn +3500)
- same thoughts as Nabors, bad team should be throwing a ton
- open competition to establish role, no real outside threat on Pats
- dark horse option here but odds reflect it
*HOMER PICK*
Titans total wins over 6.5 (DK +110)
- lots of new faces, new coaches
- weak division + last place schedule
- should be less predictable on offense with modern play calling
- this will be a slam dunk if Levis doesn't suck. Doesn't have to be great, just not suck and they'll win 7
2024-25 Season-long props on my slip:
Baker Mayfield over 3650 passing yards (DK +100)
- just threw for 4k
- returning same cast of weapons
- Would only need 228/game if he sits one out, 215 if he plays all 17
Jayden Daniels over 3150 passing yards (DK +110)
- think he'll be above 200 yds/game; would need 210/gm if he misses 2 games
- like him for OROY too, better odds on ESPNBet at +500 vs +450 on DK
Josh Allen over 480 rush yds (DK -125) and over 3750 pass yds (DK -120)
- injury would be only thing that stops him from hitting both of these lines
- I don't buy the narrative that Diggs made Allen, think he'll make it work with the squad he's got
Lamar Jackson over 675 rush yds (DK -135)
- some concern King Henry takes over the rushing att for BAL and they dial back LJax
- same as Allen, injury only thing that should prevent this from hitting
Malik Nabors most rookie rec yds (DK +500)
- should be heavily targeted on a team that's not playing with a lead very often
Dak most passing yards (FD +950)
- weak RB room
- threw for 4.5k last yr for 3rd most
- cowboys think they are in a win-now/ title contender window
Brian Thomas Jr most rookie rec yds (FD +1600)
- Jag WRs/TLaw left a lot of meat on the bones last yr
- I don't think Gabe Davis is more than just a bit player, BTJr could easily take over majority of outside snaps while Kirk mans the slot
JaLynn Polk most rookie rec yds (espn +3500)
- same thoughts as Nabors, bad team should be throwing a ton
- open competition to establish role, no real outside threat on Pats
- dark horse option here but odds reflect it
*HOMER PICK*
Titans total wins over 6.5 (DK +110)
- lots of new faces, new coaches
- weak division + last place schedule
- should be less predictable on offense with modern play calling
- this will be a slam dunk if Levis doesn't suck. Doesn't have to be great, just not suck and they'll win 7
