Fourth and long

[cincygrad]

Last season in the game at Pittsburgh, Marvin went for it on a fourth and more than 10 when we are on the border between field goal range and punting..... I swore to everyone at my house that Marvin is just an idiot and he must have thought it was still third down -- There had been some penalties and you could see how it might have happened (especially to Marvin).

Today he did it again.... It was pretty awesome to see Dane make that catch, but does anyone fully understand the strategy? What's the percentages for 3rd or 4th and 15? It has to be less than 10%. And it's not like Marvin is some sort of strange gunslinger, go for it on fourth down type of guy. I can't recall any other coach doing it. Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[bengaldoug]

The funny thing about it, even though they made it, it was a turning point to the negative, what with the penalty and missed field goal. If you don't want to try the field goal, just punt them deep imo. That's one of those times when Marvin chose not to use the punt as an offensive weapon.

 

[cincygrad]

I just wonder what the logic is. It seems that your percentages favor the punt. You're winning by 2 touchdowns and it's low probability that a team will drive 80-100 yards for a score - Especially with a rookie qb. Obviously it worked and it would have looked really good had we taken a 31-10 lead.... I'm just wondering why he did it.

 

[bengaldoug]

I think you nailed it. There is a large stack of evidence to support your Marvin is an idiot theory.

 

[cincygrad]

I should also mention that I'm slightly terrified that this will become a typical strategy for Marvin..... Don't go for it on 4th and 2, but definitely go for it if it's 4th and 15.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

You may only gain 15 yards on that play by punting.

You miss a 52+ yard FG, the opposing teams gets the ball back from wher eyou set it down to kick it.

You throw an incomplete pass, they start 7 yards farther back than if you miss a FG.

You complete it but do not make it to the sticks, well that is extra yards opposing team has to make up.

You make it, you are a hero.

I would go for that in that position of the field probably 60% of the time depending on score. We were up by 14 points, I go for that 100% of the time in that position with our defense.

Fortunately, in this case, it worked out in our favor this time.

 

[futballiscool]

When our defense is playing well I guess he's gambling that the other team won't score even if they get the ball with better field position. today they had held a young QB to 3 pts after the first drive of the game when he made the call. the other game was the low scoring game against Pittsburgh.

It's definatley an unconventional, low percentage play.

 

[DanBengalfan]

low confidence in the punter?

 

[Cincyfan78]

Percentages say, you go for it at that juncture. Too long for a FG and too short for an impactful punt. Chances of turning it over and having the other team reach the same spot after a punt return and several plays are nearly certain.

They should have gone for it on 4th and 1 in the 4th to seal the game. Their chances of winning actually decreased by punting the ball away.

 

[The Duke]

What I don't understand is that after making a ridiculous circus catch, Sanzenbacher didn't get any more targets that I saw.

 

[DanBengalfan]

What I don't understand is that after making a ridiculous circus catch, Sanzenbacher didn't get any more targets that I saw.

Did he catch it in the middle of the field? all I heard was Lapham having an orgasm.

 

[cincygrad]

Percentages say, you go for it at that juncture. Too long for a FG and too short for an impactful punt. Chances of turning it over and having the other team reach the same spot after a punt return and several plays are nearly certain.

They should have gone for it on 4th and 1 in the 4th to seal the game. Their chances of winning actually decreased by punting the ball away.

I've never seen a team go for it when they are up two scores and the distance is greater than 10 yards. I've literally never seen it done.

4th and 5? Of course. 4th and 15? I haven't seen it.

Like I said, I really have little to criticize given that they were right -- I was just sort of shocked as Marvin isn't always known for thinking out of the box.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Did he catch it in the middle of the field? all I heard was Lapham having an orgasm.

Yeah it was pretty awesome catch. I don't understand why Sanz is not getting more touches. I understand all the other WR's, but he deserves 2 or 3 at least thrown his way during a game, just the same as Hawkins would get.

I like his hands. It was in teh middle of the field. Perfect pass that only Sanz could get, with tight double coverage. Perfect play all the way around.

I was actually more impressed with Dalton than most I suppose.

He was good in the pocket for the most part, looked like he had a sense of urgency about him. He took off on a couple plays, had good accuracy, made a few plays downfield. But once again, he was playing the offensive game plan Gruden was calling. Short pass plays designed to open space up for YAC. Keep the chains moving, treating the pass like an extended run.

I actually enjoyed Dalton's play yesterday and felt he didn't really do anything to hurt this team.

This time it was on the defensive secondary and a questionable call by Zimmer that kinda hurt this team yesterday.

We won in Buffalo. That makes me happy to be honest with you regardless of what happened.

We have had a hell of a hard time beating Buaffalo lately, and to win a road game this year for the first time, was huge.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Yeah it was pretty awesome catch. I don't understand why Sanz is not getting more touches. I understand all the other WR's, but he deserves 2 or 3 at least thrown his way during a game, just the same as Hawkins would get.

I like his hands. It was in teh middle of the field. Perfect pass that only Sanz could get, with tight double coverage. Perfect play all the way around.

I was actually more impressed with Dalton than most I suppose.

He was good in the pocket for the most part, looked like he had a sense of urgency about him. He took off on a couple plays, had good accuracy, made a few plays downfield. But once again, he was playing the offensive game plan Gruden was calling. Short pass plays designed to open space up for YAC. Keep the chains moving, treating the pass like an extended run.

I actually enjoyed Dalton's play yesterday and felt he didn't really do anything to hurt this team.

This time it was on the defensive secondary and a questionable call by Zimmer that kinda hurt this team yesterday.

We won in Buffalo. That makes me happy to be honest with you regardless of what happened.

We have had a hell of a hard time beating Buaffalo lately, and to win a road game this year for the first time, was huge.

You don't feel like his retarded INT hurt the team?

 

[DanBengalfan]

ok then, my guess is they didn't mind sacrificing Dane in the middle of the field if he got clobbered then they weren't losing a star player.

glad he made the catch though
maybe he'll be the next TJ, who knows?

 

[Cincyfan78]

Dalton played well.

337 yards, 65%. The shovel pass/improvised was a smart play as Gio was wide open.

After most of the games this year, it is easy to bash Dalton's play. Let's take a week off from that after this past week. While the INT was bad, his play overall was good.

I'm sure someone will want to mention the YAC being the reason and not Dalton, but whatever...this week, Dalton gets a break.

Instead, let's focus on why in the hell a defense would ask a down lineman to have to get up off the ground, turn and then run with a TE on 4th down, with ZERO safety top coverage. THAT was a bad, bad call by Zimmer.

 

[cincygrad]

Dalton played well.

337 yards, 65%. The shovel pass/improvised was a smart play as Gio was wide open.

After most of the games this year, it is easy to bash Dalton's play. Let's take a week off from that after this past week. While the INT was bad, his play overall was good.

I'm sure someone will want to mention the YAC being the reason and not Dalton, but whatever...this week, Dalton gets a break.

Instead, let's focus on why in the hell a defense would ask a down lineman to have to get up off the ground, turn and then run with a TE on 4th down, with ZERO safety top coverage. THAT was a bad, bad call by Zimmer.

You do have to wonder what the Bills D was doing? We're a team that has trouble pushing the ball down the field and they gave up over 300 yards passing rarely ever making us pass it longer than 10 yards.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

You don't feel like his retarded INT hurt the team?

It was an underneath LB that Dalton didn't see obviously, and was throwing a slant route. That shit happens to the best QB's in the league from time to time. Am I happy about the INT, of course not, but I could see how that INT was not a typical Dalton INT, as he threw it right to the LB. If Dalton had seen him, he obviously wouldn't have thrown a perfect pass right to teh LB. It sucked, but it was what it was, just a mistake that happens to the best QB's in the NFL. I have seen Manning throw a couple INT's like that before.

Most of Dalton's INT's are close or good coverage INT's, batted balls, stuff like that. Dalton rarely throws a perfect pass right to a defender, so it was obvious he just never saw him.

I have personally not been happy with Dalton's play the past couple weeks, but I was happy with his play yesterday. He looked like he actually cared in the pocket, was controlling the offense, was making good hard throws into some tight coverage, made a couple throws people think he can't make, scrambled a little, improvised, had another 90+ yard drive, this time 98 yards.

All in all, I thought Dalton had a decent game. The INT seucked, but I can see how that happened and willing to give him a break on that particular throw.