Football Outsider's Projection for 2016

[PDay8810]

that a boy chuckles...be all you can be

 

[tducey]

Interesting, don't think the Texans win the AFC South though.

 

[Southieinnc]

Interesting, don't think the Texans win the AFC South though.

Are you picking the Titans? or are you taking a long-shot like the Colts?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Just look at those luscious pads he is deflecting- trying to one-up the Cardinals, obviously.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Apparently the wins projections are out in the form of an ESPN Insider article.

Here's the AFC East, but an "insider" ( cough @iowajerms cough )would have to post the rest.

Mean wins;SOS Rank

Pats: 10.3;16th
Bills: 8.6;15th
Jets: 6.0;2nd
MIA: 4.7;4th

 

[Eco]

Falcons rated as being middle of the road? Sounds about right.

Like some of you have already said, this will be interesting at the end of the year to reflect on.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Damn though, it's pretty impressive how sour seemingly everyone is on the Dolphins after being darlings this time last offseason.

 

[eaglesnut]

No, of course not impossible. Heck, they could win the SB. But are we talking about possible or most likely with this projection? They are the favorites in the NFC East IMO...doesn't mean I'd rank them #8

It's going to be a good division. Dallas will be on the bottom of it, but a good division nonetheless.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

No problem with the Skins projection because these rankings are always hilariously wrong. Particularly in terms of the NFCE.

 

[cdumler7]

Just for kicks and giggles here is how they had the projections going into last season.

1st--Seattle
2nd--New England
3rd--Denver
4th--Green Bay
5th St. Louis
6th--Cincinnati
7th--Pittsburgh
8th--Baltimore
9th--San Diego
10th--Kansas City
11th--Indianapolis
12th--Minnesota
13th--Philly
14th--Dallas
15--Detroit
16th--Atlanta
17th--NO
18th--NYJ
19th--NYG
20th--Carolina
21st--San Fran
22nd--Miami
23rd--Arizona
24th--Buffalo
25th--Chicago
26th--Houston
27th--Cleveland
28th--Oakland
29th--Tennessee
30th Tampa Bay
31st--Jacksonville
32nd--Washington

So obviously while these are fun to look at they are nowhere near an exact science. I mean the team they predicted to be the worst in the entire league won their division. Heck 3 of the bottom 10 teams in their projections won their division. Carolina who went 15-1 and made the Super Bowl is obviously ranked 20th. 3 of the top-10 teams on their list didn't have a winning record.

With the NFL just having so much turnover in playoff teams and really when you look at it actual roster turnover it is impossible to look at last year and try to predict this upcoming season. That is why to me Strength of Schedule is one of the worst stats in all of football.

 

[Clayton]

5th St. Louis

IIRC this was based on how well STL actually played when they are playing their best but the Rams level of play fluctuates more than any other team in football. It wasn't too hard to assume that the good Nick Foles could come in and take a deep defense to some wins.

Still, 8 of their top 12 made the playoffs. Thats not too bad at all.

 

[cdumler7]

IIRC this was based on how well STL actually played when they are playing their best but the Rams level of play fluctuates more than any other team in football. It wasn't too hard to assume that the good Nick Foles could come in and take a deep defense to some wins.

Still, 8 of their top 12 made the playoffs. Thats not too bad at all.

I'm not saying they are terrible in making predictions. I'm just saying that with the NFL there is a lot of turnover from one year to the next. I would say the one thing that can help you consistently stay at the top is high quality QB play. From year to year that seems to be one thing that can really keep a team at the top. The rest of the league fluctuates quite a bit.

I mean from last year's list 4 of the 8 division winners were ranked 20th or lower. While this thing did get a lot of the playoff teams right it really did struggle to pick out the teams that could move up well in their own division. But that is part of why we love this game in a team can make such an incredible turnaround in a very short time.

 

[Eco]

I don't think Packers are going to be as good this year as they have been. Last year they showed a lot of holes for a team contending for the SB and I'm not sure they filled them.

I think we are going to see two teams do well this year that recently have been crap; that being Oakland and Jacksonville.

I don't get the Broncos being so low, but no one in the NFL is going to look over them since they are the defending Champions.

I think the Steelers are my personal prediction to be the SB Champions.

 

[Clayton]

I mean from last year's list 4 of the 8 division winners were ranked 20th or lower. While this thing did get a lot of the playoff teams right it really did struggle to pick out the teams that could move up well in their own division. But that is part of why we love this game in a team can make such an incredible turnaround in a very short time.

Its almost impossible for statistics to predict improvement because improvement involves too much human randomness. I would also argue that last year was a little weird in that you could probably be the 20th best team in football and still win the NFC East and AFC South. That probably won't be the case this year.

I think the 2 trends I was latching on to last year was a lack of parity and a changing of the guard. The first one was very true but the second one never happened. There are some really steady teams in the NFL still and some teams that are still trying to find their way and a couple of roster changes don't fix that a whole lot.

 

[cdumler7]

Its almost impossible for statistics to predict improvement because improvement involves too much human randomness. I would also argue that last year was a little weird in that you could probably be the 20th best team in football and still win the NFC East and AFC South. That probably won't be the case this year.

I think the 2 trends I was latching on to last year was a lack of parity and a changing of the guard. The first one was very true but the second one never happened. There are some really steady teams in the NFL still and some teams that are still trying to find their way and a couple of roster changes don't fix that a whole lot.

Agreed with the NFC East and AFC South. I wouldn't put either of the winners of those divisions in the top-12. Still they greatly missed on Carolina and Arizona who were probably the top-2 teams in all of football last year through most of the season.

And you are right it is impossible to predict the random growth or failure of a team. Throw in injuries are a complete unknown at this time. The rookies coming in you just never know what you are going to get from them. It is why these types of lists are nice and probably looking back next year I would bet 8 of the top-12 once again make the playoffs. Have to see who the other 4 though just might be.

 

[Dude]

Steelers Cardinals showdown, that would be a good. On better thought scrooge the Steelers, they have too many rings. Hope some team that has not won it, does it. In both NFC and AFC, sounds ridiculous, but would be cool.

 

[Southieinnc]

Steelers Cardinals showdown, that would be a good. On better thought scrooge the Steelers, they have too many rings. Hope some team that has not won it, does it. In both NFC and AFC, sounds ridiculous, but would be cool.

Let's just do the Patriots and Panthers. That would be fun!!!!!

 

[beardown07]

I keep seeing the Lions ranked at around 15, everywhere.



Am I missing something?

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Ravens in the top 10???

 

[Dude]

Let's just do the Patriots and Panthers. That would be fun!!!!!

Go Pats!