Football Outsider's Projection for 2016

[Fountain City Blues]

I would not say projections are FO's strongsuit, their in-season methods are much better imo, but it's still worth a fun look since we have nothing to talk about. There's no DVOA projection that has been released yet, that I am aware of anyways, but their draft order is which does seem to imply what they probably are. They're pretty harsh on the Broncos and went full Raider hater, while being seemingly homerish on others. Not saying that there's no way the Raiders could implode, but color me skeptical.

Playoff teams from last year are in bold. Projected top 4 division leaders and top two non-division leaders will be color coded Blue or Red respective to their conference; HFA will be underlined.

1. Cardinals
2. Steelers
3. Packers
4. Chiefs
5. Seahawks
6. Patriots
7. Bengals
8. Cowboys
9. Ravens
10. Panthers
11. Vikings
12. Texans
13. Bills
14. Lions
15. Chargers
16. Saints
17. Rams
18. Falcons
19. Broncos
20. Colts
21. Jaguars
22. Bears
23. Titans
24. Jets
25. Bucs
26. Washington
27. Eagles
28. Raiders
29. Dolphins
30. Giants
31. 49ers
32. Browns

 

[Clayton]

Cowboys at 8 and Chargers at 15 seem a bit shocking as does the Broncos at 19.

 

[Wamu]

The Browns are ranked too high.

 

[Broncos6482]

Chargers at 15. Broncos at 19.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Chargers at 15. Broncos at 19.

View attachment 115136

I got a laugh at that too, myself.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Too high:
-Cardinals
-Cowboys
-Ravens
-Bills
-Lions
-Rams

Too low:
-Broncos
-Jaguars
-Raiders
-Giants

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Yeah Broncos way too low. 16 or 17 is about right

 

[jarntt]

I would not say projections are FO's strongsuit, their in-season methods are much better imo, but it's still worth a fun look since we have nothing to talk about. There's no DVOA projection that has been released yet, that I am aware of anyways, but their draft order is which does seem to imply what they probably are. They're pretty harsh on the Broncos and went full Raider hater, while being seemingly homerish on others. Not saying that there's no way the Raiders could implode, but color me skeptical.

Playoff teams from last year are in bold. Projected top 4 division leaders and top two non-division leaders will be color coded Blue or Red respective to their conference; HFA will be underlined.


8. Cowboys
26. Washington
27. Eagles
30. Giants

Obviously these are meaningless and barely worth the bandwith they take up, but it's funny that every possible set of odds or projections puts Dallas over Washington since our favorite Wash troll decided to make a comment that the oddsmakers ALL favor Wash over Dallas.

Sidenote,,,Dallas #8??? Not sure even Cowboy fans would say that...

 

[Scooby-Doo]

Too high:
-Cardinals
-Cowboys
-Ravens
-Bills
-Lions
-Rams

Too low:
-Broncos
-Jaguars
-Raiders
-Giants

How dare you...

BTW - I agree

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Obviously these are meaningless and barely worth the bandwith they take up, but it's funny that every possible set of odds or projections puts Dallas over Washington since our favorite Wash troll decided to make a comment that the oddsmakers ALL favor Wash over Dallas.

Sidenote,,,Dallas #8??? Not sure even Cowboy fans would say that...

With a last place schedule, weak division and the potential for a healthy Romo/Dez it's not impossible.

 

[PDay8810]

With a last place schedule, weak division and the potential for a healthy Romo/Dez it's not impossible.

not to mention somebody has to win the east and make the playoffs

 

[jarntt]

With a last place schedule, weak division and the potential for a healthy Romo/Dez it's not impossible.

No, of course not impossible. Heck, they could win the SB. But are we talking about possible or most likely with this projection? They are the favorites in the NFC East IMO...doesn't mean I'd rank them #8

 

[Bolts]

I think there's a chance the Chargers finish 2nd(or even 1st) in their division, I like what they've in the draft and FA especially if they could sign Matt Slauson. That said, I wouldn't have them ahead of Denver or even Oakland right now.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

This is bs. If it wasn't for Tom Brady the Pats would be number one. Total disgrace ~Hammer~

 

[megalodon30]

Chargers ahead of the Broncos?

 

[Battlelyon]

We have to revisit this at the end of the season.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

We have to revisit this at the end of the season.

Man, it would be funny as hell if the Giants had the 3rd worst record in the NFL after their spending spree, though.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Just to reiterate- this is the projected Draft Order for next year. It's very plausible for instance the Texans are merely average but the AFC South ends up sucking again for instance.

 

[mcnabb7542]

I hope they are wrong, I would be pissed my Eagles giving the Browns a high draft pick next year...

 

[Southieinnc]

not to mention somebody has to win the east and make the playoffs

Dallas makes the playoffs easily with ROY Ezekial Elliot and a "not so desperate" Romo.....