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I would say just read through and enjoy them but there is no way we don't start flinging poo with the first post.
Some of this is lengthy but awesome:
Double Dribble | Shoving Basketball Knowledge Into Your Dome. | Page 2
LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan – A Statistical Comparison (Pace Adjusted)
May 7, 2013 by jpalumbo
In response to a quote from Pat Riley wherein he stated that LeBron James may be the best player ever, there’s been a healthy dialogue about whether or not James has a defensible argument as the G.O.A.T.
You know I need to get in on this! Revisiting our pace adjusted comparison between Kobe’s best 4 years and Jordan’s 4 most comparable seasons, I’ve broken down the numbers on LeBron as a member of the Heat vs. Jordan at the same age. The age range is 26-28. The seasons are 2011-2013 for LeBron James and 1990-1992 for Michael Jordan. The comparison is eerily apropos.
Both players were dealing with new team structures in the wake of playoff failure – Jordan with a ECF loss to the Pistons and the installation of Phil Jackson in the head coach position and the triangle offense changing his responsibilities – LeBron with a disappointing 2nd round loss to the Celtics and a change of teams to Miami. Both players lost to the eventual champs in their first season under these new circumstances, Jordan to the Pistons in 7 games and LeBron to the Mavericks in 6 games. Both players won their first championship the next season. Both players’ teams won 65+ games the third season. They both had great stats but missed out on MVPs in the first season and then won back to back season MVPs and in Jordan’s case back to back Finals MVPs (LeBron may very well accomplish the same). Both players had to adjust to sharing the spotlight with superstar teammates. Both players were statistically and by reputation and accomplishment head and shoulders above the competition of their day. So… it’s a good range to compare.
I adjusted Michael’s stats to the 2011-13 Heat pace, so that the possessions available to both players would be level and would be in keeping with today’s game. Obviously there are other factors at play in today’s game that make it different from what it was in the early 1990s, so arguments could be made that adjusting for pace is only one piece of the comparison. That said, I don’t have a crystal ball to tell me how Jordan would function on a team loaded with three point shooters or how LeBron would play with no zone defense. I don’t know if having a hand-check available would significantly help LeBron’s on-ball defense or hurt his driving game. Nor do I know what a semi-zone would do to Jordan’s ability to ball-hawk on defense and high-post on offense. Let’s stick with what we know and examine the numbers.
Pace Adjusted Per Game Stats
Jordan: 30.3 Pts, 5.7 Ast, 6.1 Rbd, 2.5 Stl, 0.9 Blk, 2.6 Tov TS% 59.7
James: 26.9 Pts, 6.9 Ast, 7.8 Rbd, 1.7 Stl, 0.8 Blk, 3.3 Tov TS% 61.3
It’s tough to evaluate which of those lines is better, isn’t it? The pace adjustment did very little to lessen MJ’s dominance. Where the Jordan vs. Kobe comparison was very close in terms of actual pace adjusted numbers, almost the same PPG, similar assists, similar TS%, Bron and MJ are strikingly different; yet they have almost exactly the same metrics, meaning they serve different team functions but have similar value.
Digging into the stats a little deeper, we see that LeBron is slightly more efficient in his scoring attempts.
Points per scoring possession:
Jordan: 1.19
James: 1.23
However, Jordan scores more points because he uses more of his team’s available possessions to try to score, and because he turns the ball over significantly less. MJ and Bron have very similar assist to turnover ratios. When we factor in attempts to create scores (FGA – 3PA + AST) to get a “plays made” estimate. Creating a plays made to turnover ratio, we show that Jordan is more efficient as an all-around points creator for his team.
Plays Made / Turnover:
Jordan: 11.4 to 1
James: 7.8 to 1
Looking at some of the factors we examined in the Jordan vs. Bryant comparison –
Total Offense (points + assists):
Jordan: 36
James: 33.8
Possessions Gained (steals + factored rebounds and blocks):
Jordan: +5.3
James: +4.9
Possessions Ended (turnovers + made shots + factored missed FGA & FTA):
Jordan: -24.7
James: -22.7
So overall Jordan ends more possessions for his team because he takes more shots, but he also gets it back a little bit more, and he creates slightly more offense. It’s very close. Jordan’s overall value by this standard is 0.6 points higher than James’s. Which wouldn’t mean much since it’s my personal creation, but it’s actually mirrored by the smart people metrics.
Advanced Per Game Stats & Metrics:
Jordan: 30.2 PER, 0.293 WS/48, ORtg 123 DRtg 103, USG% 32.8
James: 29.8 PER, 0.287 WS/48, ORtg 120 DRtg 100, USG% 31.2
That is very tight! As we saw in the pace adjusted per game figures, Jordan’s offense is higher rated, LeBron’s possession maintenance (in this case shown as DRtg) is higher rated. Interestingly the league average Rtg for 1990-92 was 3 points higher than it was for 2011-13, meaning that if you were to make a league adjustment to Jordan’s O and D ratings by shifting him to this time frame, his numbers would exactly match LeBron’s. The ORtg minus DRtg is 20 for each player. The only difference is in Usage, where Jordan has a 1.6 advantage. So using the simple estimated 100 possession Dean Oliver ORtg – DRtg + Usage calculation, Jordan creates a net +1.6 more points per hundred possessions than LeBron or about net +0.58 more points per game. Half a point.
Overall the dynamic between the two is exactly what you’d expect. James has the more varied all around game and is more turnover prone. Jordan scores more and is slightly less efficient as a shooter. The metrics are ridiculously close with MJ maintaining a small edge.
You could argue the intangibles all day, clutchness (if it exists), leadership, durability, etc. In Jordan’s favor is the fact that he won the title in year three of this comparison, and LeBron hasn’t yet, and Mike went onto win in year 4 as well. Also Michael’s teams never lost a series where they were favored (had home court advantage), and he never lost in an NBA Finals, even though twice the Bulls did not have home court.
But those sorts of arguments are circumstantial and easily shrugged off. The truth is that we’ve been looking for the heir to Jordan’s throne for 20 years, and even if he still has some things to prove, and even if the specifics will always be debated, and even if Bill Russell or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was really better than both of them, LeBron’s the first player since Michael retired who has a solid statistical argument to take the seat. That makes this a NBA fan discussion worth having.
Some of this is lengthy but awesome:
Double Dribble | Shoving Basketball Knowledge Into Your Dome. | Page 2
LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan – A Statistical Comparison (Pace Adjusted)
May 7, 2013 by jpalumbo
In response to a quote from Pat Riley wherein he stated that LeBron James may be the best player ever, there’s been a healthy dialogue about whether or not James has a defensible argument as the G.O.A.T.
You know I need to get in on this! Revisiting our pace adjusted comparison between Kobe’s best 4 years and Jordan’s 4 most comparable seasons, I’ve broken down the numbers on LeBron as a member of the Heat vs. Jordan at the same age. The age range is 26-28. The seasons are 2011-2013 for LeBron James and 1990-1992 for Michael Jordan. The comparison is eerily apropos.
Both players were dealing with new team structures in the wake of playoff failure – Jordan with a ECF loss to the Pistons and the installation of Phil Jackson in the head coach position and the triangle offense changing his responsibilities – LeBron with a disappointing 2nd round loss to the Celtics and a change of teams to Miami. Both players lost to the eventual champs in their first season under these new circumstances, Jordan to the Pistons in 7 games and LeBron to the Mavericks in 6 games. Both players won their first championship the next season. Both players’ teams won 65+ games the third season. They both had great stats but missed out on MVPs in the first season and then won back to back season MVPs and in Jordan’s case back to back Finals MVPs (LeBron may very well accomplish the same). Both players had to adjust to sharing the spotlight with superstar teammates. Both players were statistically and by reputation and accomplishment head and shoulders above the competition of their day. So… it’s a good range to compare.
I adjusted Michael’s stats to the 2011-13 Heat pace, so that the possessions available to both players would be level and would be in keeping with today’s game. Obviously there are other factors at play in today’s game that make it different from what it was in the early 1990s, so arguments could be made that adjusting for pace is only one piece of the comparison. That said, I don’t have a crystal ball to tell me how Jordan would function on a team loaded with three point shooters or how LeBron would play with no zone defense. I don’t know if having a hand-check available would significantly help LeBron’s on-ball defense or hurt his driving game. Nor do I know what a semi-zone would do to Jordan’s ability to ball-hawk on defense and high-post on offense. Let’s stick with what we know and examine the numbers.
Pace Adjusted Per Game Stats
Jordan: 30.3 Pts, 5.7 Ast, 6.1 Rbd, 2.5 Stl, 0.9 Blk, 2.6 Tov TS% 59.7
James: 26.9 Pts, 6.9 Ast, 7.8 Rbd, 1.7 Stl, 0.8 Blk, 3.3 Tov TS% 61.3
It’s tough to evaluate which of those lines is better, isn’t it? The pace adjustment did very little to lessen MJ’s dominance. Where the Jordan vs. Kobe comparison was very close in terms of actual pace adjusted numbers, almost the same PPG, similar assists, similar TS%, Bron and MJ are strikingly different; yet they have almost exactly the same metrics, meaning they serve different team functions but have similar value.
Digging into the stats a little deeper, we see that LeBron is slightly more efficient in his scoring attempts.
Points per scoring possession:
Jordan: 1.19
James: 1.23
However, Jordan scores more points because he uses more of his team’s available possessions to try to score, and because he turns the ball over significantly less. MJ and Bron have very similar assist to turnover ratios. When we factor in attempts to create scores (FGA – 3PA + AST) to get a “plays made” estimate. Creating a plays made to turnover ratio, we show that Jordan is more efficient as an all-around points creator for his team.
Plays Made / Turnover:
Jordan: 11.4 to 1
James: 7.8 to 1
Looking at some of the factors we examined in the Jordan vs. Bryant comparison –
Total Offense (points + assists):
Jordan: 36
James: 33.8
Possessions Gained (steals + factored rebounds and blocks):
Jordan: +5.3
James: +4.9
Possessions Ended (turnovers + made shots + factored missed FGA & FTA):
Jordan: -24.7
James: -22.7
So overall Jordan ends more possessions for his team because he takes more shots, but he also gets it back a little bit more, and he creates slightly more offense. It’s very close. Jordan’s overall value by this standard is 0.6 points higher than James’s. Which wouldn’t mean much since it’s my personal creation, but it’s actually mirrored by the smart people metrics.
Advanced Per Game Stats & Metrics:
Jordan: 30.2 PER, 0.293 WS/48, ORtg 123 DRtg 103, USG% 32.8
James: 29.8 PER, 0.287 WS/48, ORtg 120 DRtg 100, USG% 31.2
That is very tight! As we saw in the pace adjusted per game figures, Jordan’s offense is higher rated, LeBron’s possession maintenance (in this case shown as DRtg) is higher rated. Interestingly the league average Rtg for 1990-92 was 3 points higher than it was for 2011-13, meaning that if you were to make a league adjustment to Jordan’s O and D ratings by shifting him to this time frame, his numbers would exactly match LeBron’s. The ORtg minus DRtg is 20 for each player. The only difference is in Usage, where Jordan has a 1.6 advantage. So using the simple estimated 100 possession Dean Oliver ORtg – DRtg + Usage calculation, Jordan creates a net +1.6 more points per hundred possessions than LeBron or about net +0.58 more points per game. Half a point.
Overall the dynamic between the two is exactly what you’d expect. James has the more varied all around game and is more turnover prone. Jordan scores more and is slightly less efficient as a shooter. The metrics are ridiculously close with MJ maintaining a small edge.
You could argue the intangibles all day, clutchness (if it exists), leadership, durability, etc. In Jordan’s favor is the fact that he won the title in year three of this comparison, and LeBron hasn’t yet, and Mike went onto win in year 4 as well. Also Michael’s teams never lost a series where they were favored (had home court advantage), and he never lost in an NBA Finals, even though twice the Bulls did not have home court.
But those sorts of arguments are circumstantial and easily shrugged off. The truth is that we’ve been looking for the heir to Jordan’s throne for 20 years, and even if he still has some things to prove, and even if the specifics will always be debated, and even if Bill Russell or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was really better than both of them, LeBron’s the first player since Michael retired who has a solid statistical argument to take the seat. That makes this a NBA fan discussion worth having.
