explain alvarez to me.

[Illinest]

Ive been doing a little bit of digging myself. There are various articles such as those on fangraphs. I think that i have an idea.
One article listed whiff rates per pitch and established that alvarez actually isnt all that great on fastballs after all. He may have seemed to be a fastball hitter because that was the only pitch that he consistently hit hard, but his whiff rate on fastballs is actually worse than league average.
Now hes also bad on sliders but thats not uncommon. The pitch that jumped out at me is the changeup. He had a horrendous whiff rate on that pitch and a tendency to chase them wherever they were thrown.

Now heres the point. His first few homeruns this year were all changeups. I think that might be smoke indicating a fire. Any opinions?

 

[element1286]

From that I gather that he doesn't have any problem with one pitch, just can't put a consistent approach together to keep himself from being vulnerable to something, ie if he adjusts to hit the fastball, he will be vulnerable to a changeup.

 

[Illinest]

The first few were changeups but since then he's hit curveballs and fastballs out too. He can't be sitting on one pitch. I suppose it's possible that he's just guessing one pitch and sitting on it. Some guys seem to be able to make that work.
What about an observation that was made regarding being more aggressive early in the count? Perhaps the book on him was to give him a first pitch offspeed pitch in the zone to get ahead?

We've also seen him hit a homerun on a pitch that was down and away, plus he's gotten around on an inside fastball as well.
Is it possible that Alvarez is successfully guessing the pitch and the location? I'm hoping that we can find a solution that doesn't rely on guessing pitches because I imagine that pitch-guessing is a method that leads to extremely streaky behavior. I don't mind streaky hitters if the end result is in the .800s but I'd prefer to believe that he's recognizing pitches earlier or something like that.

 

[Darkstone42]

The explanation doesn't matter to me as long as he keeps hitting.

The biggest thing I've noticed is in the swing itself. It's shorter and quicker. He's attacking the ball.

 

[evolver115]

The explanation doesn't matter to me as long as he keeps hitting.

The biggest thing I've noticed is in the swing itself. It's shorter and quicker. He's attacking the ball.

I think that's where the difference lies. I heard both Walk and Wehner say that Pedro has tried to shorten his swing, and has been visualizing that right center is his new foul pole, instead of down the 1st base line.

It means he's getting his hands through the zone, faster... and he's getting the meat of the bat on more pitches. It makes sense, too because he's hitting balls to the opposite gaps, and/or over the wall.

Now, I just want to see him bring the hot bat back to PNC. I know he feels the pressure when he's in Pittsburgh, just hoping he can keep this confidence rollin'.

 

[sychmd]

most good hitters study pitchers and are guess hitters. they guess pitch or location or both until they get 2 strikes.

 

[Etrius24]

Wow...I typed a response to this thread and it did not show up on here.. So I guess I will try it again.

From what I have seen of Alvarez it looks like he gets a couple of hits, gets confident... trusts his talent... and all things start to fall into place... For example. When Alvarez is going good he will hit pitches the other way for power... Like the Double in the Reds game off the wall down the left field line... He will take a few walks... and he will hit the baseball out of the park or at least show good power..

Problem is that a couple of bad at bats and the old Alvarez comes back with avengence! He guesses... He flails... the patience and power vanishes.

I would say some parts of his game are getting better... he has had some game winning hits... and he has found ways to get runners home by making contact with the runner in scoring position more this year than he has ever before...Those are encouraging signs for me that he is maturing...

But let's face it, he is still very hot and cold... When he is hot he is a very good baseball player... He has patience, he has power... he can do it all!

The last few games he has swung the bat really well... Looks like he MIGHT be warming up again... Which means that he is progressing because he has not had more than one good stretch in a season before...

I guess the hope here is that as we see more good stretches from Alvarez... he gets more and more confident... and gets more and more consistent at the plate... meaning less time between hot and cold streaks... and the hot streaks last longer and the cold streaks end sooner..

He might be something of a streak hitter for his career??? but he is at least making some progress as a hitter... and the power is there!!! It is there in spades... I will admit the batting average being .215 drives me crazy( and I am not even a batting average guy per se )...But Alvarez might well hit 30 homeruns this year..

He is young enough to expect improvement all of this season and next as well IMHO... after that what you see is what you get for the most part with Alvarez