ESPN FPI Super Bowl percentage

[iowajerms]

Reach the Super Bowl / Win the Super Bowl

NE - 50.7% / 34.7%
GB - 19.6% / 9.8%
SEA - 22.8% / 9.6%
PIT - 15.4% / 8.5%
DAL - 13.5% / 5.7%
ATL - 12.5% / 5.2%
OAK - 8.1% / 4.3%
KC - 7.7% / 4.1%
CAR - 6.7% / 2.5%
BAL - 4.3% / 2.0%
NYG - 4.9% / 1.7%
MIN - 4.6% / 1.7%
IND - 3.0% / 1.3%
PHI - 3.5% / 1.0%
NO - 2.9% / 1.0%
CIN - 2.5% / 1.0%
TEN - 2.1% / 0.9%
TB - 2.6% / 0.8%
DEN - 1.9% / 0.8%
ARI - 2.4% / 0.7%
WAS - 1.8% / 0.7%
DET - 1.9% / 0.6%
HOU - 1.5% / 0.6%
LAC - 1.0% / 0.4%
MIA - 0.7% / 0.3%
BUF - 0.5% / 0.1%
JAX - 0.3% / 0.1%
LAR - 0.2% / < 0.1%
CHI - 0.2% / < 0.1%
NYJ - 0.1% / < 0.1%
SF - < 0.1% / < 0.1%
CLE - < 0.1% / < 0.1%

1. Win the SB
2. Reach the SB

FPI's 2017 NFL projections: Odds for divisions, playoffs, No. 1 pick, more

 

[rmilia1]

I'm surprised the Cowboys are still that high. Other than that it looks about right . GB and Seattle are prohibitive favorites to won their divisions so makes sense they'd be that high. Same for NE and Pitt. Tampa is way too low and Carolina way too high as well

 

[gobigred]

Interesting that Seattle has 3.2% higher chance to reach Super Bowl than the Packers but a Packers have 0.2% better chance of winning Super Bowl.

 

[Golden Spur]

The Panthers seem high up, but those aren't great odds.

Did ATL lose some personnel? Not quite sure why they've dropped, if only for the 'runner-up curse'. Their O was incredible last year, D came on late in the season, will only get better under Quinn.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Interesting that Seattle has 3.2% higher chance to reach Super Bowl than the Packers but a Packers have 0.2% better chance of winning Super Bowl.

I think if Seattle makes the Super Bowl they probably played at least 2 playoff games at home. But the Super Bowl is a neutral site game and we all know it's way harder to pay off the refs when the game isn't in your own stadium. That probably accounts for the difference.

 

[PDay8810]

LOL....Vegas must be cowboy fans

 

[jarntt]

I think if Seattle makes the Super Bowl they probably played at least 2 playoff games at home. But the Super Bowl is a neutral site game and we all know it's way harder to pay off the refs when the game isn't in your own stadium. That probably accounts for the difference.

Makes sense to me

 

[rmilia1]

Interesting that Seattle has 3.2% higher chance to reach Super Bowl than the Packers but a Packers have 0.2% better chance of winning Super Bowl.

I assume they believe GB to be the slightly better team but give Seattle the better odds of getting home field in the NFC

 

[rmilia1]

The Panthers seem high up, but those aren't great odds.

Did ATL lose some personnel? Not quite sure why they've dropped, if only for the 'runner-up curse'. Their O was incredible last year, D came on late in the season, will only get better under Quinn.

Schedule . Atlanta plays the top 3 FPI teams and 4 of the top 5 as well as the strength of the division . Basically the odds indicate the Souths perceived strength relative to the other NFC divisions and the schedule would seem more likely to prohibit Atlanta from getting HF compared to GB or Seattle

 

[tducey]

Seems to be mainly right for me. I wonder how Dallas will do though without Zeke for the first few games.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Reach the Super Bowl / Win the Super Bowl

NE - 50.7% / 34.7%
GB - 19.6% / 9.8%
SEA - 22.8% / 9.6%
PIT - 15.4% / 8.5%
DAL - 13.5% / 5.7%
ATL - 12.5% / 5.2%
OAK - 8.1% / 4.3%
KC - 7.7% / 4.1%
CAR - 6.7% / 2.5%
BAL - 4.3% / 2.0%
NYG - 4.9% / 1.7%
MIN - 4.6% / 1.7%
IND - 3.0% / 1.3%
PHI - 3.5% / 1.0%
NO - 2.9% / 1.0%
CIN - 2.5% / 1.0%
TEN - 2.1% / 0.9%
TB - 2.6% / 0.8%
DEN - 1.9% / 0.8%
ARI - 2.4% / 0.7%
WAS - 1.8% / 0.7%
DET - 1.9% / 0.6%
HOU - 1.5% / 0.6%
LAC - 1.0% / 0.4%
MIA - 0.7% / 0.3%
BUF - 0.5% / 0.1%
JAX - 0.3% / 0.1%
LAR - 0.2% / < 0.1%
CHI - 0.2% / < 0.1%
NYJ - 0.1% / < 0.1%
SF - < 0.1% / < 0.1%
CLE - < 0.1% / < 0.1%

1. Win the SB
2. Reach the SB

FPI's 2017 NFL projections: Odds for divisions, playoffs, No. 1 pick, more

THIS RIDES GONNA BE OVER SOME DAY...MAYBE WHEN IM 60?

 

[packerzrule]

Interesting that Seattle has 3.2% higher chance to reach Super Bowl than the Packers but a Packers have 0.2% better chance of winning Super Bowl.

that is what I was questioning as well

 

[NEPatsfan]

Reach the Super Bowl / Win the Super Bowl

NE - 50.7% / 34.7%
GB - 19.6% / 9.8%
SEA - 22.8% / 9.6%
PIT - 15.4% / 8.5%
DAL - 13.5% / 5.7%
ATL - 12.5% / 5.2%
OAK - 8.1% / 4.3%
KC - 7.7% / 4.1%
CAR - 6.7% / 2.5%
BAL - 4.3% / 2.0%
NYG - 4.9% / 1.7%
MIN - 4.6% / 1.7%
IND - 3.0% / 1.3%
PHI - 3.5% / 1.0%
NO - 2.9% / 1.0%
CIN - 2.5% / 1.0%
TEN - 2.1% / 0.9%
TB - 2.6% / 0.8%
DEN - 1.9% / 0.8%
ARI - 2.4% / 0.7%
WAS - 1.8% / 0.7%
DET - 1.9% / 0.6%
HOU - 1.5% / 0.6%
LAC - 1.0% / 0.4%
MIA - 0.7% / 0.3%
BUF - 0.5% / 0.1%
JAX - 0.3% / 0.1%
LAR - 0.2% / < 0.1%
CHI - 0.2% / < 0.1%
NYJ - 0.1% / < 0.1%
SF - < 0.1% / < 0.1%
CLE - < 0.1% / < 0.1%

1. Win the SB
2. Reach the SB

FPI's 2017 NFL projections: Odds for divisions, playoffs, No. 1 pick, more

 

[packerzrule]

I assume they believe GB to be the slightly better team but give Seattle the better odds of getting home field in the NFC

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

 

[Yo Tee]

Indianapolis is the 6th AFC team? Ummmm....really?

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

I think if Seattle makes the Super Bowl they probably played at least 2 playoff games at home. But the Super Bowl is a neutral site game and we all know it's way harder to pay off the refs when the game isn't in your own stadium. That probably accounts for the difference.

Say what ? Are you implying the Seahawks paid off refs to win at home ? That's ridiculous, every playoff game we've won at home hasn't been decided by the refs, we've taken care of business..

 

[Southieinnc]

Interesting that Seattle has 3.2% higher chance to reach Super Bowl than the Packers but a Packers have 0.2% better chance of winning Super Bowl.

Seattle can improve their odds of winning the SB - if they run from the 1!!!!!!

 

[DHoey]

ESPN is full of taint lickers and ball washers

 

[packerzrule]

Looks like the Colts can hang a new banner in their stadium