End of the ACC?

[Duckboy33]

They don’t need media partners to pay for expansion, they just need the numbers to match up in terms of potential revenue. It’s all based on the future contract. They know they have the advantage when they renegotiate with a bigger market.

The SEC now is just regional, so the ratings outside the South aren’t very large. There isn’t much room to grow their tv viewership in the South any more. The B10 is looking for NFL type numbers. Getting schools physically located in each region significantly raises the revenue numbers.

Georgia Tech brings in a top 5 tv market in Atlanta. It also gives the B10 a recruiting platform in Georgia. Same with Miami. Big tv market, and a big recruiting market. UNC does the same thing. FOX will spend significantly more for the B10 knowing they will have teams located inside those big markets.

Notre Dame is a national brand, but it doesn’t move the dial in overall recruiting for the B10 (Indiana isn’t a hot bed of talent, and they already got a school there). The B10 would love them, but at this point they aren’t worth more than Miami or other large market teams.

I mean you need media partners to pay of expansion otherwise everyone is taking a paycut until the next TV contract. Universities are much less likely to vote for expansion when you tell them it's going to decrease their revenue.

I don't agree about the SEC. Their schools get huge ratings. They're going to be fine.

TV networks pay for eyeballs. ND brings eyeballs. That's why they're more valuable than GT or Miami. I agree that the Big Ten will try to get closer to that NFL map by adding schools in the south. FSU and Miami are very likely IMO. The Big Ten would love to have UNC but the SEC is going to make a push to expand their map into NC/VA IMO. Clemson also remains a possibility. I understand the argument for GT but I don't buy it. They just don't penetrate the market enough for it to matter. I don't hear any buzz around GT (Pun intended) and there's a pretty clear reason for it IMO.

 

[belcherboy]

I mean you need media partners to pay of expansion otherwise everyone is taking a paycut until the next TV contract. Universities are much less likely to vote for expansion when you tell them it's going to decrease their revenue.

I don't agree about the SEC. Their schools get huge ratings. They're going to be fine.

TV networks pay for eyeballs. ND brings eyeballs. That's why they're more valuable than GT or Miami. I agree that the Big Ten will try to get closer to that NFL map by adding schools in the south. FSU and Miami are very likely IMO. The Big Ten would love to have UNC but the SEC is going to make a push to expand their map into NC/VA IMO. Clemson also remains a possibility. I understand the argument for GT but I don't buy it. They just don't penetrate the market enough for it to matter. I don't hear any buzz around GT (Pun intended) and there's a pretty clear reason for it IMO.

If they get the a Miami market, Atlanta market, Charlotte market, etc, you can get Fox to the renegotiating table early. The last thing Fox wants to do to the conference of the largest market is stick it to them. The money will definitely not be the problem, when they know that a new tv contract will easily surpass the $120 million per team mark in the next contract (maybe more).

The SEC really has no path forward to significantly larger ratings. The tv viewership for their areas is already insanely big with no real room for growth. Texas and Oklahoma will give them a much bigger market as a conference, but it doesn’t move the market anywhere else but the south. When Michigan plays Washington, they get two massive markets watching thousands of miles away from each other.

If the Big Ten had Miami, a USC vs Miami game would bring in HUGE numbers across a bigger footprint. People in California are now more interested in the Michigan vs Ohio game because it may impact where there team is in the standings. Same with Miami.

The SEC is “landlocked” to an extent with their tv ratings compared to the Big Ten, especially if the Big Ten can get a footprint in the south ( Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, and maybe a Texas team)

As for Georgia Tech, having a team in downtown Atlanta would pay HUGE dividends in the tv market, but MUCH more in recruiting. Ohio, Penn st, USC, Michigan, etc would love to come to Atlanta and meet with Georgia recruits. Same with Miami. It’s a double dip financially and in recruiting.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The ACC is gonna blow up, just a matter if it's within the next year or two, or the 2030's. Most immediate question is if FSU is successful in its lawfare attempt.

 

[belcherboy]

The ACC is gonna blow up, just a matter if it's within the next year or two, or the 2030's. Most immediate question is if FSU is successful in its lawfare attempt.

I think the ACC, as we know it, is done. I foresee, at a minimum, FSU, Clemson, and UNC will announce their departure in the next few months. The whole conference exit payout will be locked up in courts for a long time, all while ESPN will likely drop their tv contract with the conference. Teams will jump ship like they are on the Titanic.

I would bet that FSU and a few other teams already know they have an invite waiting if they decide to leave the ACC.

Obviously this is all speculation on my part.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think the ACC, as we know it, is done. I foresee, at a minimum, FSU, Clemson, and UNC will announce their departure in the next few months. The whole conference exit payout will be locked up in courts for a long time, all while ESPN will likely drop their tv contract with the conference. Teams will jump ship like they are on the Titanic.

I would bet that FSU and a few other teams already know they have an invite waiting if they decide to leave the ACC.

Obviously this is all speculation on my part.

I'd be sweating bullets if I was Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, and BC right now, all I am gonna say.

 

[belcherboy]

I'd be sweating bullets if I was Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, and BC right now, all I am gonna say.

I could see a partnership with the Big 12. They could add a few teams and still have a semi-Power 5 type conference. It would definitely be neutered, but could still see a team or two in the 12 team playoffs every year.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I could see a partnership with the Big 12. They could add a few teams and still have a semi-Power 5 type conference. It would definitely be neutered, but could still see a team or two in the 12 team playoffs every year.

I don't think the Big 12 would want any of those 4 schools per se outside of maybe Duke. They'd just happily take the mid tier ACC schools the SEC/BIG don't take up to what TV execs can pay.

Pitt does more for the Big 12 than Wake Forest in like anything.

 

[belcherboy]

I don't think the Big 12 would want any of those 4 schools per se outside of maybe Duke. They'd just happily take the mid tier ACC schools the SEC/BIG don't take up to what TV execs can pay.

Pitt does more for the Big 12 than Wake Forest in like anything.

If VaTech and UVA are still around, it would be a nice tv market. Even BC, and Syracuse would bring a pretty good tv market.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

If VaTech and UVA are still around, it would be a nice tv market. Even BC, and Syracuse would bring a pretty good tv market.

Are BC and Syracuse good CFB markets though? Certainly great NFL markets, but CFB? A bit lukewarm. If they punched their weight their local populations suggested, the ACC wouldn’t be blowing up, imo.

Center of gravity in CFB has been in the Midwest and the South for a long time now.

I’d also be shocked if UVA was available to the Big 12.

 

[H2S]

The Atlanta market is the media epicenter of the SEC.
The Chicago market is the media epicenter of the B1G.
By adding Georgia Tech (imo, at the very least an equivalent to Maryland or Rutgers), the SEC would be forced to share voice in it's prime market...
ditto UNC and the Charlotte market...
I don't see any Florida schools coming to the B1G

 

[belcherboy]

Are BC and Syracuse good CFB markets though? Certainly great NFL markets, but CFB? A bit lukewarm. If they punched their weight their local populations suggested, the ACC wouldn’t be blowing up, imo.

Center of gravity in CFB has been in the Midwest and the South for a long time now.

I’d also be shocked if UVA was available to the Big 12.

It’s all about the potential market share. Boston is a major market. CFB is looking to expand. There just isn’t much room to expand in the south as it is already has several teams drawing large numbers compared to the population. The NFL rules these cities, so there is a large market available to them. They just need to tap into it.

It’s the same reason that the Big Ten went after Rutgers. It’s the potential tv market that matters. It’s much more beneficial to fish in a large pond that doesn’t have many people fishing in, than to stick your hook in a smaller pond with a bunch of people who are already fishing in it.

 

[elguapo]

I agree about the footprint 100%.

One thing to keep in mind is that expansion has to be paid for. The Big Ten members aren't going to expand just for the sake of expanding. Florida State and ND are the only teams that can really pay for themselves and a partner IMO. Because of that, I think the Big Ten will max out at 22 and they're only getting to 22 with ND.

My guess is Florida State gets in to the Big Ten and they get paired with Miami. Fox Sports is a big advocate for Miami right now. They have a great market and they satisfy the academically minded presidents. If UNC decided to join the Big Ten, they would jump ahead of Miami. However, I'm hearing UNC is leaning towards the SEC when they are ready to make a move. Once ND is ready to make the move, ND will be added along with one other.

Thats why I thin k NC makes sense, football is gettig better, basketball is a blue blood. Dont count out virgina markets, not great teams but VA, DC area is huge tv numbers

 

[elguapo]

The Atlanta market is the media epicenter of the SEC.
The Chicago market is the media epicenter of the B1G.
By adding Georgia Tech (imo, at the very least an equivalent to Maryland or Rutgers), the SEC would be forced to share voice in it's prime market...
ditto UNC and the Charlotte market...
I don't see any Florida schools coming to the B1G

I disagree on the the fertile recruiting. The amout of college players that come out of florida is insane. Also, the way the pop i swelling, the tv numbers make sense as well

 

[elguapo]

Are BC and Syracuse good CFB markets though? Certainly great NFL markets, but CFB? A bit lukewarm. If they punched their weight their local populations suggested, the ACC wouldn’t be blowing up, imo.

Center of gravity in CFB has been in the Midwest and the South for a long time now.

I’d also be shocked if UVA was available to the Big 12.

For us no, rutgers is new jersey and maryland is our new england shool already

 

[belcherboy]

For us no, rutgers is new jersey and maryland is our new england shool already

We were talking about them possibly combining the ACC (once the big teams leave) with the Big 12.

 

[belcherboy]

 

[Duckboy33]

If they get the a Miami market, Atlanta market, Charlotte market, etc, you can get Fox to the renegotiating table early. The last thing Fox wants to do to the conference of the largest market is stick it to them. The money will definitely not be the problem, when they know that a new tv contract will easily surpass the $120 million per team mark in the next contract (maybe more).

The SEC really has no path forward to significantly larger ratings. The tv viewership for their areas is already insanely big with no real room for growth. Texas and Oklahoma will give them a much bigger market as a conference, but it doesn’t move the market anywhere else but the south. When Michigan plays Washington, they get two massive markets watching thousands of miles away from each other.

If the Big Ten had Miami, a USC vs Miami game would bring in HUGE numbers across a bigger footprint. People in California are now more interested in the Michigan vs Ohio game because it may impact where there team is in the standings. Same with Miami.

The SEC is “landlocked” to an extent with their tv ratings compared to the Big Ten, especially if the Big Ten can get a footprint in the south ( Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, and maybe a Texas team)

As for Georgia Tech, having a team in downtown Atlanta would pay HUGE dividends in the tv market, but MUCH more in recruiting. Ohio, Penn st, USC, Michigan, etc would love to come to Atlanta and meet with Georgia recruits. Same with Miami. It’s a double dip financially and in recruiting.

The SEC is fine because they have almost all the premier brands from Georgia to Florida to Texas. Those are the areas of the country that are seeing growth. I could see them trying to expand into North Carolina and Virginia just to push their map a little more north. But they have so many big brands across populous and growing states that they're going to be more than fine moving forward.

I know FOX Sports likes the Miami market and it's the reason Miami is in front of Clemson from what I've heard. Again, I've heard nothing around Georgia Tech and I don't expect that to change for the reasons I've already stated. If I hear anything different, I'll come back and acknowledge that I was wrong. Georgia Tech doesn't even appear to be a backup plan at the moment.

FSU, Miami, UNC, and ND would be the ideal move for the Big Ten from what I'm hearing. I think more work needs to be done before UNC is ready to make a move. ND obviously won't make the move until they have no other viable option.

 

[Duckboy33]

Thats why I thin k NC makes sense, football is gettig better, basketball is a blue blood. Dont count out virgina markets, not great teams but VA, DC area is huge tv numbers

DMV is a huge market but the Big Ten already has that market covered with Maryland. I think the SEC would have more interest in expanding into Virginia than the Big Ten.

UVA and VT tying themselves together makes a move difficult. I'm not sure either conference will want both of them.

 

[eaglesnut]

This shit really excites you guys?

 

[elguapo]

DMV is a huge market but the Big Ten already has that market covered with Maryland. I think the SEC would have more interest in expanding into Virginia than the Big Ten.

UVA and VT tying themselves together makes a move difficult. I'm not sure either conference will want both of them.

thats the sticking point i was thinking as well, them wanting to stay together. But perfect world to me is FSU, GT, NC, clemson. It clearly plants the big ten flag deep into fertile recruiting grounds of the south. Huge tv numbers added as well. And an all world F U to notre dame who is now out in the cold of doormat sec team, or in a bottom end of conferences big 12