End of the ACC?

[belcherboy]

 

[bamagrad75]

Maybe time to fold their tent. Spilt any remaining money and kick them in the ass as they go searching for new homes.

Good luck with that.

It's all full at the inn in the SEC

 

[Duckboy33]

The source isn't legit but the ACC will be losing members before the 2026 season. The question is whether they can keep the other schools from looking for lifeboats after FSU and others leave.

 

[belcherboy]

The source isn't legit but the ACC will be losing members before the 2026 season. The question is whether they can keep the other schools from looking for lifeboats after FSU and others leave.

It won’t matter. ESPN isn’t going to keep their tv contract with the conference after the top teams leave.

FSU is the first domino. Once Clemson and a few others leave, there will be nothing left for football. Without football being a power 5 conference, the ACC will become the Big East.

My conspiracy hat found it interesting that the SEC made a public statement about not wanting the ACC teams. That way they can say they had nothing to do with those teams leaving. In my opinion, FSU doesn’t break from the ACC unless they know they have a landing spot. I think we will see a few ACC teams joining the SEC in the next few years.

 

[Duckboy33]

It won’t matter. ESPN isn’t going to keep their tv contract with the conference after the top teams leave.

FSU is the first domino. Once Clemson and a few others leave, there will be nothing left for football. Without football being a power 5 conference, the ACC will become the Big East.

My conspiracy hat found it interesting that the SEC made a public statement about not wanting the ACC teams. That way they can say they had nothing to do with those teams leaving. In my opinion, FSU doesn’t break from the ACC unless they know they have a landing spot. I think we will see a few ACC teams joining the SEC in the next few years.

FSU knows they'll have a landing spot, that's not really a conspiracy. It just comes down to whether they join the Big Ten or the SEC. Most of the FSU smoke, appears to be around the Big Ten ATM. I do, however, think the SEC's perspective will change when FSU becomes available.

 

[belcherboy]

FSU knows they'll have a landing spot, that's not really a conspiracy. It just comes down to whether they join the Big Ten or the SEC. Most of the FSU smoke, appears to be around the Big Ten ATM. I do, however, think the SEC's perspective will change when FSU becomes available.

The conspiracy theory isn’t about FSU having a landing spot, it’s about the SEC not wanting them or Clemson and publicly saying it.

 

[Duckboy33]

The conspiracy theory isn’t about FSU having a landing spot, it’s about the SEC not wanting them or Clemson and publicly saying it.

We'll see. I know the SEC mouth pieces have said they would like to add UNC and UVA. It will be interesting to see ultimately how many ACC schools having landing spots in the SEC or Big Ten.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

Despite the shaky media source, This seems almost impossibly unlikely.

1) That GOR is ironclad. It has zero loopholes.
It makes the one Texas/OKlahoma signed look like a cocktail napkin from a drunk sorority girl

2) And as soon as the ACC get the GOR cash, they are immediately bribing Notre Dame, and telling FSU good luck in Conference USA.
Notre Dame would make the conference stronger.

3) Stanford, Cal, and SMU will add more money and growth potential than people think.

4) The SEC has been 100% vocal and adamant, that they do not want Florida State. Florida, Georgia, and probably Alabama/Auburn will be immediately vetoing FSU. North Carolina is the only school the SEC would consider.

5) The Big 10 does not want non-AAU schools. Sure, Florida State is a big brand, but the Big 10 could easily wait it out and offer Miami (FL) instead if they really wanted a florida based school with AAU credentials.


The most likely result is that FSU agrees to some sort of uneven revenue plan, and another 10 years passed before the next blowup.

 

[belcherboy]

Despite the shaky media source, This seems almost impossibly unlikely.

1) That GOR is ironclad. It has zero loopholes.
It makes the one Texas/OKlahoma signed look like a cocktail napkin from a drunk sorority girl

2) And as soon as the ACC get the GOR cash, they are immediately bribing Notre Dame, and telling FSU good luck in Conference USA.
Notre Dame would make the conference stronger.

3) Stanford, Cal, and SMU will add more money and growth potential than people think.

4) The SEC has been 100% vocal and adamant, that they do not want Florida State. Florida, Georgia, and probably Alabama/Auburn will be immediately vetoing FSU. North Carolina is the only school the SEC would consider.

5) The Big 10 does not want non-AAU schools. Sure, Florida State is a big brand, but the Big 10 could easily wait it out and offer Miami (FL) instead if they really wanted a florida based school with AAU credentials.


The most likely result is that FSU agrees to some sort of uneven revenue plan, and another 10 years passed before the next blowup.

It will all fall apart once a few more schools back out. ESPN will abandon the deal, and they will be looking to settle for pennies on the dollar at that point. This whole contract was predicated on ESPN's tv deal. If that deal blows up, I imagine that they will lose any teeth on the charging these teams for leaving the conference. ESPN isn't going to want a tv contract whose best football teams are Duke and Louisville.

At least that is my prediction.

 

[Duckboy33]

5) The Big 10 does not want non-AAU schools. Sure, Florida State is a big brand, but the Big 10 could easily wait it out and offer Miami (FL) instead if they really wanted a florida based school with AAU credentials.


The most likely result is that FSU agrees to some sort of uneven revenue plan, and another 10 years passed before the next blowup.

The Big Ten has never had an AAU requirement. They've added non-AAU schools in the past and they have a current member who is not AAU. I can tell you with 100% confidence that the Big Ten would be interested in adding Florida State if they became available. AAU or not.

Miami FL likely would get paired with them because of the market, academics, etc.

 

[belcherboy]

The Big Ten has never had an AAU requirement. They've added non-AAU schools in the past and they have a current member who is not AAU. I can tell you with 100% confidence that the Big Ten would be interested in adding Florida State if they became available. AAU or not.

Miami FL likely would get paired with them because of the market, academics, etc.

I think the Big Ten wants a footprint like the NFL. From north to south to east to west. They would have a nationwide conference and generate the most tv money.

They probably want to get a team in Florida (FSU or Miami), a team like UNC (Charlotte market), a team like Georgia Tech (Atlanta market), and a Texas team. Throw in Clemson or someone else if available. I think 24 teams would be a good number for the B10.

 

[elguapo]

Despite the shaky media source, This seems almost impossibly unlikely.

1) That GOR is ironclad. It has zero loopholes.
It makes the one Texas/OKlahoma signed look like a cocktail napkin from a drunk sorority girl

2) And as soon as the ACC get the GOR cash, they are immediately bribing Notre Dame, and telling FSU good luck in Conference USA.
Notre Dame would make the conference stronger.

3) Stanford, Cal, and SMU will add more money and growth potential than people think.

4) The SEC has been 100% vocal and adamant, that they do not want Florida State. Florida, Georgia, and probably Alabama/Auburn will be immediately vetoing FSU. North Carolina is the only school the SEC would consider.

5) The Big 10 does not want non-AAU schools. Sure, Florida State is a big brand, but the Big 10 could easily wait it out and offer Miami (FL) instead if they really wanted a florida based school with AAU credentials.


The most likely result is that FSU agrees to some sort of uneven revenue plan, and another 10 years passed before the next blowup.

The Big Ten has never had an AAU requirement. They've added non-AAU schools in the past and they have a current member who is not AAU. I can tell you with 100% confidence that the Big Ten would be interested in adding Florida State if they became available. AAU or not.

Miami FL likely would get paired with them because of the market, academics, etc.

FSU has started their AAU inclusion process. And make no mistake their pedigree, the fact they have started AAU inclusion and the plentiful recruiting of florida will absolutely be attractive to Big 10.

I would add that my belief all along for not taking wsu and osu was because they wanted fsu and clemson/nc for the recruiting grounds and nc would also add bball pedigree

 

[Duckboy33]

I think the Big Ten wants a footprint like the NFL. From north to south to east to west. They would have a nationwide conference and generate the most tv money.

They probably want to get a team in Florida (FSU or Miami), a team like UNC (Charlotte market), a team like Georgia Tech (Atlanta market), and a Texas team. Throw in Clemson or someone else if available. I think 24 teams would be a good number for the B10.

I agree about the footprint 100%.

One thing to keep in mind is that expansion has to be paid for. The Big Ten members aren't going to expand just for the sake of expanding. Florida State and ND are the only teams that can really pay for themselves and a partner IMO. Because of that, I think the Big Ten will max out at 22 and they're only getting to 22 with ND.

My guess is Florida State gets in to the Big Ten and they get paired with Miami. Fox Sports is a big advocate for Miami right now. They have a great market and they satisfy the academically minded presidents. If UNC decided to join the Big Ten, they would jump ahead of Miami. However, I'm hearing UNC is leaning towards the SEC when they are ready to make a move. Once ND is ready to make the move, ND will be added along with one other.

 

[belcherboy]

I agree about the footprint 100%.

One thing to keep in mind is that expansion has to be paid for. The Big Ten members aren't going to expand just for the sake of expanding. Florida State and ND are the only teams that can really pay for themselves and a partner IMO. Because of that, I think the Big Ten will max out at 22 and they're only getting to 22 with ND.

My guess is Florida State gets in to the Big Ten and they get paired with Miami. Fox Sports is a big advocate for Miami right now. They have a great market and they satisfy the academically minded presidents. If UNC decided to join the Big Ten, they would jump ahead of Miami. However, I'm hearing UNC is leaning towards the SEC when they are ready to make a move. Once ND is ready to make the move, ND will be added along with one other.

They will expand if they gain a significant tv market share as well as an improvement in recruiting areas.

The Florida market, Atlanta market, Texas market, and maybe the Charlotte market would bring in HUGE tv revenue as well as a better recruiting area. I think FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Georgia Tech, and 1-2 Texas teams would be in play (I don’t think they would get them all, but likely would invite them all to join).

I don’t think the exit fee from the ACC will be a factor. Once it implodes, the ACC won’t spend big money fighting it in court. They will settle for far less is my prediction.

I don’t see ND coming to the Big Ten. They simply love their independence. The only way to get them to join is if the top teams stop scheduling them. Although, I’m not sure what restrictions they might face in a 12 team playoff. Again, just my opinion.

 

[Duckboy33]

They will expand if they gain a significant tv market share as well as an improvement in recruiting areas.

The Florida market, Atlanta market, Texas market, and maybe the Charlotte market would bring in HUGE tv revenue as well as a better recruiting area. I think FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Georgia Tech, and 1-2 Texas teams would be in play (I don’t think they would get them all, but likely would invite them all to join).

I don’t think the exit fee from the ACC will be a factor. Once it implodes, the ACC won’t spend big money fighting it in court. They will settle for far less is my prediction.

I don’t see ND coming to the Big Ten. They simply love their independence. The only way to get them to join is if the top teams stop scheduling them. Although, I’m not sure what restrictions they might face in a 12 team playoff. Again, just my opinion.

Again, they need media partners to pay for expansion. The Atlanta market is an SEC market. The networks understand that and it's why GT isn't in the conversation right now IMO.

In my mind, the Big Ten's big board looks like this:

1. Notre Dame
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. Miami FL
5. Clemson
6. Stanford

Only the top 2 bring enough value to fund expansion. UNC is the wildcard. They are really desired by Big Ten presidents. However, it's unclear how tied they are to UVA and NC State at the moment. They are also being pursued by the SEC who may be more willing to add UVA as well (Big Ten already has their presence in the DMV). I see Florida State and Miami in the near future and then the Big Ten waits for ND. I don't think ND can maintain their independence long term if the ACC unravels.

The Big Ten would love to get into Texas but all the major brands are in the SEC. I don't think the Big Ten will settle for schools that are 2nd rate in their own state. It's the same reason I don't think GT is a serious candidate.

 

[foster4prez]

They will expand if they gain a significant tv market share as well as an improvement in recruiting areas.

The Florida market, Atlanta market, Texas market, and maybe the Charlotte market would bring in HUGE tv revenue as well as a better recruiting area. I think FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Georgia Tech, and 1-2 Texas teams would be in play (I don’t think they would get them all, but likely would invite them all to join).

I don’t think the exit fee from the ACC will be a factor. Once it implodes, the ACC won’t spend big money fighting it in court. They will settle for far less is my prediction.

I don’t see ND coming to the Big Ten. They simply love their independence. The only way to get them to join is if the top teams stop scheduling them. Although, I’m not sure what restrictions they might face in a 12 team playoff. Again, just my opinion.

The exit fee from the ACC is like half a billion dollars right now...

 

[foster4prez]

Again, they need media partners to pay for expansion. The Atlanta market is an SEC market. The networks understand that and it's why GT isn't in the conversation right now IMO.

In my mind, the Big Ten's big board looks like this:

1. Notre Dame
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. Miami FL
5. Clemson
6. Stanford

Only the top 2 bring enough value to fund expansion. UNC is the wildcard. They are really desired by Big Ten presidents. However, it's unclear how tied they are to UVA and NC State at the moment. They are also being pursued by the SEC who may be more willing to add UVA as well (Big Ten already has their presence in the DMV). I see Florida State and Miami in the near future and then the Big Ten waits for ND. I don't think ND can maintain their independence long term if the ACC unravels.

The Big Ten would love to get into Texas but all the major brands are in the SEC. I don't think the Big Ten will settle for schools that are 2nd rate in their own state. It's the same reason I don't think GT is a serious candidate.

If they wanted Stanford, wouldn't they have taken them from the wreckage of the P12?

 

[Duckboy33]

If they wanted Stanford, wouldn't they have taken them from the wreckage of the P12?

Not necessarily. People said for months "If the Big Ten wanted Oregon and Washington, they would have already invited them" and then the Big Ten went ahead an invited them.

Obviously Stanford doesn't bring enough TV value on their own to warrant expansion. If they did, Stanford and California would have been added to the Big Ten already. However, if Notre Dame wanted to join the Big Ten, that would bring enough value for Stanford to come along. I think they would prefer to add someone in the south east, which is why they are behind FSU, UNC, Clemson and Miami. However, if they miss on enough of those options, don't be surprised if they come back around for Stanford.

 

[belcherboy]

The exit fee from the ACC is like half a billion dollars right now...

It is, and that is why FSU and other schools are taking it to court. The exit fee was based on the tv contract with ESPN. If enough schools drop out (really if just FSU and a school like Clemson drop) ESPN will kill that tv contract fast. Once the tv contract goes, it will give these schools the legal ability to back out. At least that is what I’ve heard.

They may have to pay some to leave, but it will be penny’s on the dollar compared to the half billion number.

 

[belcherboy]

Again, they need media partners to pay for expansion. The Atlanta market is an SEC market. The networks understand that and it's why GT isn't in the conversation right now IMO.

In my mind, the Big Ten's big board looks like this:

1. Notre Dame
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. Miami FL
5. Clemson
6. Stanford

Only the top 2 bring enough value to fund expansion. UNC is the wildcard. They are really desired by Big Ten presidents. However, it's unclear how tied they are to UVA and NC State at the moment. They are also being pursued by the SEC who may be more willing to add UVA as well (Big Ten already has their presence in the DMV). I see Florida State and Miami in the near future and then the Big Ten waits for ND. I don't think ND can maintain their independence long term if the ACC unravels.

The Big Ten would love to get into Texas but all the major brands are in the SEC. I don't think the Big Ten will settle for schools that are 2nd rate in their own state. It's the same reason I don't think GT is a serious candidate.

They don’t need media partners to pay for expansion, they just need the numbers to match up in terms of potential revenue. It’s all based on the future contract. They know they have the advantage when they renegotiate with a bigger market.

The SEC now is just regional, so the ratings outside the South aren’t very large. There isn’t much room to grow their tv viewership in the South any more. The B10 is looking for NFL type numbers. Getting schools physically located in each region significantly raises the revenue numbers.

Georgia Tech brings in a top 5 tv market in Atlanta. It also gives the B10 a recruiting platform in Georgia. Same with Miami. Big tv market, and a big recruiting market. UNC does the same thing. FOX will spend significantly more for the B10 knowing they will have teams located inside those big markets.

Notre Dame is a national brand, but it doesn’t move the dial in overall recruiting for the B10 (Indiana isn’t a hot bed of talent, and they already got a school there). The B10 would love them, but at this point they aren’t worth more than Miami or other large market teams.