.... End of game strategy Q

[ElTexan]

bump

 

[Codaxx]

By that logic: if down by three, you'd go for it on 4th and 5 from the opponent's 12 yard line instead of kicking the FG to tie at the end of the game? Because you want to "go for the win" and "show confidence."

Nope. Try again. There's more to it than simply that.

-
I think it is deeper. One thing people are underestimating is with 7 minutes to go you will likely get 2 possessions. TDs are much harder to get than FGs, unless you are a Bama fan, especially late in a game down. So there are actually 2 benefits. 2 FGs now give you the win. I think you kick the extra pt, but I would guess its a much closer decision than people think.

 

[Codaxx]

The problem with your scenario is that you're automatically assuming that no matter what you do with your possession the other team will definitely score a field goal afterwards. This is where I'm saying you can't coach like this and try to play the odds game about going for two. You have to have confidence in your defense to get the stop after you score the first time. Then come back for achance to win the game with a PAT rather than just tying it.

If you go for the two point conversion initially and then get the stop, yes you don't need the next PAT to win, just the 6. However you're playing the odds of making two PATs versus a 2 point conversion. Typically the odds favor the PATs, unless of course you're one of our (VT's) kickers this year.

That has nothing to do with coaching. That is why so many coaches make suboptimal choices. Feelings should not be a consideration.

 

[OnlyCrimson]

7 minutes left in game.
A TD gets you to within 7 points.

Everyone kicks the PAT to make it a 6 pt game.

Why not go for the 2 point conversion?
If you miss it, you're still only down by 7.
If you make it, you're down by 5, thus keeping it to a one possession game [8 points] if your opponent scores a Field Goal on their next possession.

???

Shouldn't Texas be more concerned with start of the game strategy, such as coin flip.

 

[podsox]

7 minutes left in game.
A TD gets you to within 7 points.

Everyone kicks the PAT to make it a 6 pt game.

Why not go for the 2 point conversion?
If you miss it, you're still only down by 7.
If you make it, you're down by 5, thus keeping it to a one possession game [8 points] if your opponent scores a Field Goal on their next possession.

???

- 2 pt conversions have an under 50% success rate
- converting back to back 2 pt conversions is extremely difficult
- im not risking taking pts off the board
- teams with leads late in the game are usually attempting to run the clock out via running the ftball and leaving themselves in horrible 3rd down situations
-if you are banking on them kicking a fg there likely wont be much time on the clock. 5 first downs ends the game.

 

[Oney]

Two Point Conversion Chart

 

[DonMan]

this hypothetical decision is all about odds and not about feelings.

Let's assume the odds of making a 2 pt conversion are about 40%, and extra points are 100%. Of course those are just estimates.

Scenario A: kick the extra point. This puts you down by 6. If you score a TD+PAT, you win the game outright. If the other team kicks a FG, you'll be down by 2 and odds are you'll lose the game.

Scenario B: go for two. If the other team kicks a FG, and you score another TD, and make another two point conversion, you tie. The odds of making two two-point conversions is 40% * 40% = about 16%. Of course, there's no way to reasonably approximate the odds of the other team kicking a FG followed by your team scoring a TD.

So, the coach has to chose between A, which gives him a legitimate chance to win the game in regulation in some scenarios, vs. B, which gives him slim odds of winning the game under one very specific scenario. From an odds perspective, this is an easy call.

 

[gpm1976]

Nope, he's right. You kick the goddamn field goal, let your defense get the stop, score a TD and win the game.

In either scenario you're going need to score a TD right? Why risk missing a 2-point conversion and only being able to tie the game in the end, when if you make the pat, you can win in regulation with a TD?

I guess it depends on your defense, whether you're confident in them or not. If the other team has been driving on you all night, then maybe the 2 is a good idea.

and pray like hell the other team doesn't somehow return it for a TD.

 

[ElTexan]

this hypothetical decision is all about odds and not about feelings.

Let's assume the odds of making a 2 pt conversion are about 40%, and extra points are 100%. Of course those are just estimates.

Scenario A: kick the extra point. This puts you down by 6. If you score a TD+PAT, you win the game outright. If the other team kicks a FG, you'll be down by 2 and odds are you'll lose the game.

Scenario B: go for two. If the other team kicks a FG, and you score another TD, and make another two point conversion, you tie. The odds of making two two-point conversions is 40% * 40% = about 16%. Of course, there's no way to reasonably approximate the odds of the other team kicking a FG followed by your team scoring a TD.

So, the coach has to chose between A, which gives him a legitimate chance to win the game in regulation in some scenarios, vs. B, which gives him slim odds of winning the game under one very specific scenario. From an odds perspective, this is an easy call.

Ummmm, you went with an odds argument, and then said there's no way to reasonably calculate the odds...
So, this was a useless post. Try again to add something to the conversation.

 

[ElTexan]

Two Point Conversion Chart

Don't need to see the chart. I know what the chart says. THAT'S THE THING I'M QUESTIONING. You can;t bring up the thing in question as evidence in the argument. Don't start sounding like a Team SEC idiot, bro. E.g.,

Me: Y'all are over-ranked
Team SEC: You kidding? We're not overranked. Just look at our rankings?

 

[kramer1]

OP is a douche IMO.

Carry on.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

7 minutes left in the game?? I'm expecting at least 2 more TD's - unless we are playing Stanford

 

[yeodonie]

What are these field goal things you are speaking of?