Ellis, Brown, Udoh to be traded for...

[CameronFrye]

guessing you folks have not seen the game tonight, granted was against the Kings who are just as bad as the Warriors if not worse...but man they played some good ball tonight without Udoh and Ellis.

This.

Remember when the Warriors started the season 2-1 and people were on these boards talking about the change in philosophy and how the Warriors could make the playoffs?

Tonight's game was just like that. I don't think the Warriors are going to shoot .505 from the field on a regular basis and without Udoh teams will only have to worry about slowing down _avi_ Lee to keep the team from getting inside. Jeremy Tyler is not going to play more than 5 or 6 minutes per night, so it will be up to Biedrins to collapse the defense to give the offense chances to shoot from the perimeter. That's not going to happen.

The Warriors will lose more than they will win the rest of the way this season. I only hope that there are enough losses to keep the team's draft pick.

 

[CitySushi]

I think this trade won't be fully assessed until this offseason. You can definitely see the direction the team is going in, and kudo's for them for taking a risky chance. The last time the Warriors took a chance on an injury prone player, that guy was Baron Davis.

This move is of high risk, but you can see exactly why it was necessary. As constructed, this team has reached it's peak. With no draft pick this year, there's no chance to add surrounding talent.

Jack's contract turns into an expiring next year, and I'm sure he'll be flipped sooner than later. The Warriors get a chance to give their young guys tons of playing time to give them experience and speed their development. The tough schedule coming up gives them an opportunity to get their draft pick back from the Jazz. I hate losing and despise the concept of tanking, but I'll be definitely watching the games to see how Jenkins, Tyler and Klay progress. The gift and the curse of being a Warriors fan is that you're always able to see some silver lining.

I firmly believe this move was necessary. I'm as wary as the next guy about Bogut and Curry's injury histories, but at some point you have to roll the dice. Bogut will provide everything that David Lee lacks. He's a solid offensive player, very good rebounder and excellent shot blocker. We were just about to throw 11M a year at DeAndre Jordan, and got a way better version of him for 1M more. Even 60 games of Bogut would be better than 80 games of Jordan.

I love Monta, he has so much heart and determination, and am sad to see the guy go. It was a necessary evil that you have to give up talent to get talent.

 

[CameronFrye]

One more thing: let's not all get the idea that Andrew Bogut is some kind of offensive stud at center. He's absolutely not. Remember when Biedrins was an automatic double-double guy? Well, that's almost exactly what the Warriors are getting. But now, instead of paying $9 million per season for it, they are paying $12 mil this season, $13 mil next season and $14 mil the season after that.

Bogut is not an offensive power. The guy is 12 points and 9 boards per game for his career averages. He is not going to make THAT much of an impact on our squad.

Using his per game totals, Bogut was the 21st best center in the NBA this year. If you factor out the guys who have C eligibility but mostly play PF, he becomes the 18th best center. And he's played long enough in the league that he's not going to get much better than he already is.

Andrew Bogut is not a difference-maker, and I sure as heck don't see him as the starting center on a Western Conference title contender, let alone an NBA title contender. He has the talent to help the team get to the playoffs, but that's about the extent of his abilities.

 

[CitySushi]

One more thing: let's not all get the idea that Andrew Bogut is some kind of offensive stud at center. He's absolutely not. Remember when Biedrins was an automatic double-double guy? Well, that's almost exactly what the Warriors are getting. But now, instead of paying $9 million per season for it, they are paying $12 mil this season, $13 mil next season and $14 mil the season after that.

Bogut is not an offensive power. The guy is 12 points and 9 boards per game for his career averages. He is not going to make THAT much of an impact on our squad.

Using his per game totals, Bogut was the 21st best center in the NBA this year. If you factor out the guys who have C eligibility but mostly play PF, he becomes the 18th best center. And he's played long enough in the league that he's not going to get much better than he already is.

Andrew Bogut is not a difference-maker, and I sure as heck don't see him as the starting center on a Western Conference title contender, let alone an NBA title contender. He has the talent to help the team get to the playoffs, but that's about the extent of his abilities.

The difference between Bogut and Biedrins offensively is night and day. Sure he's not going to score 18 a game, but the key with him is you won't need him to. He's been under utilized in Milwaukee and Jennings wasn't all world in delivering the ball to guys in the right places. Bogut also can step out a few feet and knock down a jumper. He can finish around the hoop, is a very good passer and most importantly he protects the rim. He can actually create his own shot, unlike Biedrins. I realize it's easy to compare statistics, but they are very misleading in this case.

 

[CameronFrye]

The difference between Bogut and Biedrins offensively is night and day. Sure he's not going to score 18 a game, but the key with him is you won't need him to. He's been under utilized in Milwaukee and Jennings wasn't all world in delivering the ball to guys in the right places. Bogut also can step out a few feet and knock down a jumper. He can finish around the hoop, is a very good passer and most importantly he protects the rim. He can actually create his own shot, unlike Biedrins. I realize it's easy to compare statistics, but they are very misleading in this case.

First, let's be realistic here. The difference between Bogut and Biedrins is late afternoon or early evening and night, not night and day. Bogut is definitely more talented than Biedrins offensively, but you make him sound like a 7-foot Kobe Bryant. He has a smoother offensive game, but he's not athletic by any stretch of the imagination. The biggest difference between the two is Bogut's polish with the ball in his hands and his outside shot. In fact, I would tend to believe that Biedrins is more of a pure athlete than Bogut. Biedrins is a better rebounder, is a better shot blocker and has a higher motor. Beans just can't shoot from beyond 8-10 feet.

Plus, next year when Bogut lines up at center for the Warriors alongside _avi_ Lee, he will have the same problems that Biedrins has had for the past 5 years (Biedrins has had to line up alongside Anthony Randolph, Vlad Radmanovic, Al Harrington, Brandan Wright, Troy Murphy et al. The idea is still the same - no defense). Bogut is going to be paired with a power forward who does not understand the meaning of the word defense and he is going to have to overextend himself defensively to make up for Lee's numerous shortcomings. Those shortcomings will affect his offensive production.

You and I will have to agree to disagree here becuase I don't see Bogut as being that much better than Biedrins when Andris was at the top of his game.

 

[ColinCoby]

I've tried to break down the key arguments with this trade. I'm sure to leave out a lot of key opinions floating out there, but here goes:

Positives

+Ellis and Curry were never going to work out anyway. Ellis needed to be traded eventually.

+Clearly the Warriors must think Thompson is capable of NBA-starter minutes. Might as well see if they're right.

+The Warriors failed miserably in bringing in a center in the offseason who can rebound and defend. With Bogut, they finally get their guy.

+Bogut has a horrible injury history, but he's only 27.

+We've been yelling for the team to be blown up; this is perhaps a good start.

Negatives

-Gave up Ellis without getting rid of Beans.

-Gave up Ellis without getting rid of Lee.

-Gave up Ellis without getting a draft pick.

-Gave up a youngish big who is productive (not as productive as Greg Monroe but still)

-SJax? Really? Why don't we trade for Dunleavy and have two of the most hated recent Warrior players on the floor together!

-Bogut has 76 games in the three seasons before this one and played in only 12 games to this point this year.

Overall, I find myself concluding: why not? If Bogut comes back next year healthy, with some tweaking the team could be in much better shape defensively. The SJax contract is gone in a year (as is Biedrins' right?). Cap room aplenty.

Shit, I don't know. This thing could completely blow up in our faces...

 

[CameronFrye]

Colin - Biedrins has this year and next plus a player option in 2013-2014. He's never going to get $9 mil on the open market, so let's just assume that he's going to be here for two more years beyond this one.

 

[CitySushi]

First, let's be realistic here. The difference between Bogut and Biedrins is late afternoon or early evening and night, not night and day. Bogut is definitely more talented than Biedrins offensively, but you make him sound like a 7-foot Kobe Bryant. He has a smoother offensive game, but he's not athletic by any stretch of the imagination. The biggest difference between the two is Bogut's polish with the ball in his hands and his outside shot. In fact, I would tend to believe that Biedrins is more of a pure athlete than Bogut. Biedrins is a better rebounder, is a better shot blocker and has a higher motor. Beans just can't shoot from beyond 8-10 feet.

Plus, next year when Bogut lines up at center for the Warriors alongside _avi_ Lee, he will have the same problems that Biedrins has had for the past 5 years (Biedrins has had to line up alongside Anthony Randolph, Vlad Radmanovic, Al Harrington, Brandan Wright, Troy Murphy et al. The idea is still the same - no defense). Bogut is going to be paired with a power forward who does not understand the meaning of the word defense and he is going to have to overextend himself defensively to make up for Lee's numerous shortcomings. Those shortcomings will affect his offensive production.

You and I will have to agree to disagree here becuase I don't see Bogut as being that much better than Biedrins when Andris was at the top of his game.

Please, I didn't say anything of the sort. I said in the first post he was "solid offensively". In the second one I pointed out what he was capable of and said he wouldn't score 18 a night. You're stretching Cam.

Comparing what Bogut will produce to what Biedrins used to produce is irrelevant. If Biedrins was putting up those type of numbers, there would be no need for Bogut. Bogut won't be a superstar, but he's exactly the type of player the Warriors need. Lets be real, the market for starting centers is slim pickings. Outside of Howard and Bynum, Bogut is easily in contention for one of the best behind them.

Boguts career numbers are 12 and 9.3 with 1.7 blocks.

Compare that to these other career numbers:
A) 8.7/8.6/1.3
B) 12.8/9.5/1.1
C) 16.1/8.9/1.4
D) 17.5/7.5/1.7

A) Joakim Noah
B) Al Horford
C) Al Jefferson
D) Brook Lopez.

If you're looking for more offensive output, you sacrifice on defense. If you want better defense, you sacrifice for offense. Bogut is a nice medium, imo.

 

[CameronFrye]

Please, I didn't say anything of the sort. I said in the first post he was "solid offensively". In the second one I pointed out what he was capable of and said he wouldn't score 18 a night. You're stretching Cam.

Comparing what Bogut will produce to what Biedrins used to produce is irrelevant. If Biedrins was putting up those type of numbers, there would be no need for Bogut. Bogut won't be a superstar, but he's exactly the type of player the Warriors need. Lets be real, the market for starting centers is slim pickings. Outside of Howard and Bynum, Bogut is easily in contention for one of the best behind them.

Boguts career numbers are 12 and 9.3 with 1.7 blocks.

Compare that to these other career numbers:
A) 8.7/8.6/1.3
B) 12.8/9.5/1.1
C) 16.1/8.9/1.4
D) 17.5/7.5/1.7

A) Joakim Noah
B) Al Horford
C) Al Jefferson
D) Brook Lopez.

If you're looking for more offensive output, you sacrifice on defense. If you want better defense, you sacrifice for offense. Bogut is a nice medium, imo.

I admit I did exaggerate a bit on the Kobe Bryant thing, but my point is not quite what you believe it to be. I am saying that Bogut now compares to the 2008-09 version of Biedrins and not to a real top-flight center. He will make this team better than it is currently, but those who are expecting 20 points and 10 boards per game with the ball moving through his hands on most plays will be sorely disappointed.

If Bogut is healthy all year (and that is a pretty big 'if') he will make this team better to the point that they challenge for the 8th seed in the playoffs every year. Heck, if Thompson comes around and develops a more complete game and Curry finds a set of balls and stays on the court, the Warriors might even shock some people and get a 6 or a 7 seed. But that is about the extent of what the team will do with Bogut at the center spot. Especially if the team stays otherwise intact.

 

[Heathbar012]

First, let's be realistic here. The difference between Bogut and Biedrins is late afternoon or early evening and night, not night and day. Bogut is definitely more talented than Biedrins offensively, but you make him sound like a 7-foot Kobe Bryant. He has a smoother offensive game, but he's not athletic by any stretch of the imagination. The biggest difference between the two is Bogut's polish with the ball in his hands and his outside shot. In fact, I would tend to believe that Biedrins is more of a pure athlete than Bogut. Biedrins is a better rebounder, is a better shot blocker and has a higher motor. Beans just can't shoot from beyond 8-10 feet.

Plus, next year when Bogut lines up at center for the Warriors alongside _avi_ Lee, he will have the same problems that Biedrins has had for the past 5 years (Biedrins has had to line up alongside Anthony Randolph, Vlad Radmanovic, Al Harrington, Brandan Wright, Troy Murphy et al. The idea is still the same - no defense). Bogut is going to be paired with a power forward who does not understand the meaning of the word defense and he is going to have to overextend himself defensively to make up for Lee's numerous shortcomings. Those shortcomings will affect his offensive production.

You and I will have to agree to disagree here becuase I don't see Bogut as being that much better than Biedrins when Andris was at the top of his game.

That's the problem, Cam. The Ws need "Biedrins when Andris was at the top of his game," and they're never going to get that from him again. He might show a flash of it at the end of this year because of all the minutes and available shots (until Cap. Jack gets into his rhythm), but it isn't sustainable.

You seem to be arguing that the Warriors didn't get better with this trade. Like CitySushi said, "we 'll have to wait to assess this trade until the off-season." The package could include a top 7 pick.

I do agree that it is time to get the best possible deal for Curry+Biedrins, though. A squad with only one true, healthy center (that happens to be a recent 2nd round draft pick) is Nellie's wet dream roster. Hell, who wants Avi's big contract, too? If they're gonna do this, they might as well go all the way. At least we know MJax has a couple years of job security.

 

[CitySushi]

I admit I did exaggerate a bit on the Kobe Bryant thing, but my point is not quite what you believe it to be. I am saying that Bogut now compares to the 2008-09 version of Biedrins and not to a real top-flight center. He will make this team better than it is currently, but those who are expecting 20 points and 10 boards per game with the ball moving through his hands on most plays will be sorely disappointed.

If Bogut is healthy all year (and that is a pretty big 'if') he will make this team better to the point that they challenge for the 8th seed in the playoffs every year. Heck, if Thompson comes around and develops a more complete game and Curry finds a set of balls and stays on the court, the Warriors might even shock some people and get a 6 or a 7 seed. But that is about the extent of what the team will do with Bogut at the center spot. Especially if the team stays otherwise intact.

Bogut is a piece to the puzzle and not the solution. Don't get me wrong. I think Bogut goes a long way towards rectifying this team. We are a superstar away from being in the upper echelon of the league. At the same time, we didn't trade away a superstar either. Some may consider it a lateral move, but I believe it was a major step in the right direction.

Bogut won't ever be needed to score 20 and 10. If he's able to get 14 and 9, with 2+ blocks a game, I would be thrilled. The scoring production drop from Monta is the most easily compensated for statistic. I don't worry about our offensive production.

 

[CameronFrye]

Bogut is a piece to the puzzle and not the solution. Don't get me wrong. I think Bogut goes a long way towards rectifying this team. We are a superstar away from being in the upper echelon of the league. At the same time, we didn't trade away a superstar either. Some may consider it a lateral move, but I believe it was a major step in the right direction.

Bogut won't ever be needed to score 20 and 10. If he's able to get 14 and 9, with 2+ blocks a game, I would be thrilled. The scoring production drop from Monta is the most easily compensated for statistic. I don't worry about our offensive production.

But the Warriors do not have that superstar nor do they have the trade pieces to land a superstar. In fact, the Warriors just traded away their two best tradeable pieces when they obtained Bogut. No one wants to trade a superstar for an albatross like Biedrins or a clear overpay like _avi_ Lee. Curry is glass and Thompson is too one-dimensional right now.

So it's easy to say that the Warriors are one center away from being in the upper echelon. So are about a dozen other teams in the NBA. But the Warriors have neither the cap space nor the trade pieces to land that guy, so it's not going to happen. If every player plays to his peak next season, the Warriors MIGHT be an 8-seed.

My complaint comes down to this: The Warriors needed to make a BIG splash to have a chance to either make the playoffs or to be bad enough to rebuild. They did neither with this trade. Bogut is not a difference maker and they didn't trade away contracts for cap space. In fact, they ADDED cap space over the next few years. Net result = same old Warriors.

 

[CitySushi]

But the Warriors do not have that superstar nor do they have the trade pieces to land a superstar. In fact, the Warriors just traded away their two best tradeable pieces when they obtained Bogut. No one wants to trade a superstar for an albatross like Biedrins or a clear overpay like _avi_ Lee. Curry is glass and Thompson is too one-dimensional right now.

So it's easy to say that the Warriors are one center away from being in the upper echelon. So are about a dozen other teams in the NBA. But the Warriors have neither the cap space nor the trade pieces to land that guy, so it's not going to happen. If every player plays to his peak next season, the Warriors MIGHT be an 8-seed.

My complaint comes down to this: The Warriors needed to make a BIG splash to have a chance to either make the playoffs or to be bad enough to rebuild. They did neither with this trade. Bogut is not a difference maker and they didn't trade away contracts for cap space. In fact, they ADDED cap space over the next few years. Net result = same old Warriors.

Unfortunately you just summed it up there. We don't have the assets to acquire a big name, and we have too many bad contracts that we have to ride out. But in the mean time, if the Warriors become a 6-8th seed while riding those contracts out, clearly that would be a success.