Early draft primer

[thecrow124]

A couple college players are really starting to stand out that MIGHT be there at #9.

Jonathan Grey - RHP that can hit 100 mph and did so on his 111th pitch in a complete game.

Kris Bryant - Has 12 HR on the season, possibly the best power bat in the draft.

I doubt either of these 2 will be there at #9 or #14, but in an ideal world they would be.

 

[thedddd]

2013 MLB Mock Draft | 2013 MLB Draft | MLB Draft |

Always like looking reading these mock drafts now this one has them going for 2 high school players both committed to colleges I doubt they would go for both since they would have to over pay to get them to not go.

 

[magnumo]

A few days ago, I read another article which indicated that the Pirates would draft shortstop JP Crawford..... the same guy shown as the overall #14 pick in that mock draft you posted, the dddd. The article went on to say that the upcoming draft is weak at shortstop, Crawford is the best SS available, and the Pirates need a SS.

The weakness of the 2013 draft at SS seems to be confirmed by the fact that 3 of the first 12 players drafted in 2012 were shortstops, while Crawford at #14 is the first shortstop to show up in that mock draft.

At any rate, while I don't question the Pirate system's need for shortstops, I favor the principle of ALWAYS drafting the best player available, rather than drafting for positions-of-need. I support drafting Crawford ONLY if he's the BPA..... but I don't follow potential draftees closely enough to know. (I gotta feeling that much will change between now and draft day, anyway.) I'm just hoping that the Pirates do better than last year..... we can't afford any more failures to sign our top draft pick.

 

[thecrow124]

Hard to believe that site. They still have Stanek going 4th overall and he has looked less than good to this point. I also see no way Houston passes on Appel again, the guy is twice the pitcher as anyone else in this draft. There is not even a close second to him, it makes no sense to pass on him this year.

I also don't see us passing on Jon Denney if he is there at 9 unless Appel, Manea, Gray or Bryant is there for us. I might put Bryant and Denney as equals but the power Bryant has showed this year is just impressive.

 

[thecrow124]

A few days ago, I read another article which indicated that the Pirates would draft shortstop JP Crawford..... the same guy shown as the overall #14 pick in that mock draft you posted, the dddd. The article went on to say that the upcoming draft is weak at shortstop, Crawford is the best SS available, and the Pirates need a SS.

The weakness of the 2013 draft at SS seems to be confirmed by the fact that 3 of the first 12 players drafted in 2012 were shortstops, while Crawford at #14 is the first shortstop to show up in that mock draft.

At any rate, while I don't question the Pirate system's need for shortstops, I favor the principle of ALWAYS drafting the best player available, rather than drafting for positions-of-need. I support drafting Crawford ONLY if he's the BPA..... but I don't follow potential draftees closely enough to know. (I gotta feeling that much will change between now and draft day, anyway.) I'm just hoping that the Pirates do better than last year..... we can't afford any more failures to sign our top draft pick.

I read an article that said Crawford was borderline first round talent in a typical draft, but in this draft he is the best SS available and will benefit from that. I think it was keith law that wrote it. Needless to say not a glowing endorsement.

I don't see as much need as most at SS. I personally believe that DeJesus is going to be just fine at the position, there is a pretty good chance he won't hit enough, but we should be used to that from our SS' s. We also have Hansen behind him and I think Mathisen could handle the position as well. Not our biggest area of "need" IMO.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah I don't see Houston passing on Appel.

I have a feeling with how weak the SS's are in this draft some other team will over commit to him. Probably won't be there at #14 even though he probably better slotted late in the 1st round.

With two first round picks I see them taking the best available at 9 and 14 taking a gamble on a guy like a Dominic Smith (thats if the power is as legit as some reports state).

Crow if they can get Grey and Bryant I think that would be huge for the Pirates.

Big League Futures | MLB Mock Draft Central: 2013 - this link has a link to all mock drafts and they are all one person's opinion, just read them out of curiosity. As you can see they basically different.

 

[thecrow124]

A few days ago, I read another article which indicated that the Pirates would draft shortstop JP Crawford..... the same guy shown as the overall #14 pick in that mock draft you posted, the dddd. The article went on to say that the upcoming draft is weak at shortstop, Crawford is the best SS available, and the Pirates need a SS.

The weakness of the 2013 draft at SS seems to be confirmed by the fact that 3 of the first 12 players drafted in 2012 were shortstops, while Crawford at #14 is the first shortstop to show up in that mock draft.

At any rate, while I don't question the Pirate system's need for shortstops, I favor the principle of ALWAYS drafting the best player available, rather than drafting for positions-of-need. I support drafting Crawford ONLY if he's the BPA..... but I don't follow potential draftees closely enough to know. (I gotta feeling that much will change between now and draft day, anyway.) I'm just hoping that the Pirates do better than last year..... we can't afford any more failures to sign our top draft pick.

Saw some video on Crawford today and I have to say incake away very very un-impressed. He has a strong arm, but seemed to hotdog every play and was taking 2 hops and a skip to load his throw, thus showcasing his arm. They do this is Latin America to hide flaws in their prospects, no idea why he would be doing it. His swing looked like it would have to be completely reworked as well. Bat and hands start high and stay there until he tries to drop them to the balls pitched plane. With his swing he will never hit an average fastball let alone a good one.

I personally would not pick this guy in the first 15 for any reason, even if he is Carl Crawford's nephew.

 

[thecrow124]

Hard to believe that site. They still have Stanek going 4th overall and he has looked less than good to this point. I also see no way Houston passes on Appel again, the guy is twice the pitcher as anyone else in this draft. There is not even a close second to him, it makes no sense to pass on him this year.

I also don't see us passing on Jon Denney if he is there at 9 unless Appel, Manea, Gray or Bryant is there for us. I might put Bryant and Denney as equals but the power Bryant has showed this year is just impressive.

Saw video of Stanek as well. I can see why teams like him, but with his delivery I don't think he will ever have the best control. He kind of steps toward third slightly and has a 3/4 delivery following through accross his body. However there is very little bend in his arm so everything comes from his shoulder. Just an odd delivery. However if he has his release point down like he seems to have had in his last start he can be very tough to hit. He might be a guy that you can get 5-8 years of use out of the way he throws now, but if you tinker with his mechanics there is probably a better than 50/50 shot he blows out his elbow. I do not think I would shy away as much as I would have before seeing the video though.

 

[thecrow124]

Saw some video on Crawford today and I have to say incake away very very un-impressed. He has a strong arm, but seemed to hotdog every play and was taking 2 hops and a skip to load his throw, thus showcasing his arm. They do this is Latin America to hide flaws in their prospects, no idea why he would be doing it. His swing looked like it would have to be completely reworked as well. Bat and hands start high and stay there until he tries to drop them to the balls pitched plane. With his swing he will never hit an average fastball let alone a good one.

I personally would not pick this guy in the first 15 for any reason, even if he is Carl Crawford's nephew.

I came........not incake.......I need a computer because my thumbs are too big for this phone.

 

[magnumo]

I came........not incake.......I need a computer because my thumbs are too big for this phone.

Thanks for a nice chuckle.

Saw some video on Crawford today and I have to say [I came] away very very un-impressed. He has a strong arm, but seemed to hotdog every play and was taking 2 hops and a skip to load his throw, thus showcasing his arm. They do this is Latin America to hide flaws in their prospects, no idea why he would be doing it. His swing looked like it would have to be completely reworked as well. Bat and hands start high and stay there until he tries to drop them to the balls pitched plane. With his swing he will never hit an average fastball let alone a good one.

I personally would not pick this guy in the first 15 for any reason, even if he is Carl Crawford's nephew.

I don't follow potential draftees closely at all. However, I DO read threads on several Pirate discussion boards to see what other fans are thinking. I don't have a personal opinion on Crawford, nor have I seen anything else about his hot-dogging, but I can report that the consensus of folks on other boards seems to agree with you about his hitting. In fact, one guy posted that Crawford is hitting only a tad over .200 in high school right now. Since I value performance and skills at least as much as potential and tools..... if that post is accurate, it raises a huge red flag for me.

 

[thecrow124]

Keith Law update his draft prospects today.

#9 is now Collin Moran 3B from North Carolina.

#14 is now Trey Ball a LHP from high school whom Law says touches 94 consistently.

I would be happy with those two, although I don't know much about Ball, time to research I guess.

 

[Etrius24]

I want the Bucs to draft the BBA... Best Bat Available! I like pitching just fine..But less risk when taking bats...And I subscribe to the theory that you can always find a spot for a guy that swings a great bat. In recent draft the Bucs have had more success developing top pitchers.. Looking at their farm system most of the noteworthy prospects are pitchers. I know it just happens that way sometimes...

Take the best college bat available maybe with the first 3 picks and restore some balance to the system. It is not unreasonable to expect an advanced college bat to be hitting in the majors as early as late next season... or the spring of 2015... When McCutchen, Marte, and Pedro will all still be here! ( who knows how Sanchez will fare )

 

[thecrow124]

I want the Bucs to draft the BBA... Best Bat Available! I like pitching just fine..But less risk when taking bats...And I subscribe to the theory that you can always find a spot for a guy that swings a great bat. In recent draft the Bucs have had more success developing top pitchers.. Looking at their farm system most of the noteworthy prospects are pitchers. I know it just happens that way sometimes...

Take the best college bat available maybe with the first 3 picks and restore some balance to the system. It is not unreasonable to expect an advanced college bat to be hitting in the majors as early as late next season... or the spring of 2015... When McCutchen, Marte, and Pedro will all still be here! ( who knows how Sanchez will fare )

The problem with college bats this year is that Moran is the third best college bat and after him is Austin Wilson and after that there is nothing. The draft in general is weak, and I am not sure anyone outside of Gray and Appel have a shot at the major leagues before 2015.

I am of the opinion that they should take the best player available. Regardless of position, drafting for an organizational need is not a good plan was of action.

 

[Darkstone42]

The problem with college bats this year is that Moran is the third best college bat and after him is Austin Wilson and after that there is nothing. The draft in general is weak, and I am not sure anyone outside of Gray and Appel have a shot at the major leagues before 2015.

I am of the opinion that they should take the best player available. Regardless of position, drafting for an organizational need is not a good plan was of action.

I would love to have Austin Wilson. I've seen him play live, and he just looks like a Major Leaguer to me.

 

[Etrius24]

Crow

The reason I am a fan of looking for the best college bat you can find is that the path to the majors is shorter and not filled with as many injury risks as it is with college pitchers or high school pitchers.

I think that with the scouting and development programs in Latin america the Pirates can fill all their pitching needs..Plus they can still look at pitchers in the draft... But I want them to focus on college bats early in the draft...

Every so often a high school bat comes along that you know is special.. and I would break the rule looking at college bats first for such a player...

I remember several years ago when Prince Fielder was going to be drafted I was thinking to myself ... I would take this kid first or second overall... He his big, strong and he can hit the fastball... They were projecting the kid to be a 40 homerun hitter. Then there was the whole bloodlines thing going on..I really do not know how 6 other teams passed on Fielder... I heard people were concerned that he could only play first base.. and his weight was an issue.. But how can you pass on a bat like that? The kid is going to have 300 homeruns before he turns 30! His OPS is above .900! He has hit 50 homeruns in a season and been an all star 4 times already.

When you identify that a kid has a special bat you can always find a place for him to play if he is truly a special hitter...

Just less risk with a bat ... and early in the draft I think you need that extra chance of success!

Comment on Posey vs Pedro... I remember vividly watching college baseball that year and looking forward to the draft... Point blank Posey was just a better hitter coming into the draft....He was consistently the better hitter before they were drafted....

Pedro was a great college baseball player, Posey was better!

Posey hit 26 homeruns the year he was drafted ... His OPS was 1.446!!! He hit over three college seasons .398! He walked twice as much as he struck out his final season in college and walked more than he struck out for his college career. Posey was easily the best hitter in the country and the best bat in that draft. I had Pedro as the 4th best hitter in that draft...
1. Posey
2. Smoak
3. Hosmer
4. Pedro

Smoak and Hosmer have yet to really make a huge impact at the MLB level. Getting Smoak out of Seattle would help his power numbers...

 

[thecrow124]

Keith Law released his first mock draft today. He has a name I haven't heard mentioned associated with the Pirates before at #9. After reading up on the guy I am in the no thanks category, especially since he still has Austin Meadows, Austin Wilson, and the other HS kid from Georgia still on the board. The. At 14 he has us taking the same kid from Indiana HS I mentioned in my last post. Sorry for being so vague but I am not sure about copyright laws when it comes to posting stuff from a copyrighted article.

 

[Etrius24]

crow

I think I have a sure fire way to protect you in any circumstance, I think!

Just put the term: " I think " in there when you want to quote the article and that way you are not technically breaking any rules. You think that is what the article said...

Wink wink

 

[thecrow124]

MLB.com mock draft 2.0 has us selecting Reese McGuire a HS catcher and college OFer Hunter Renfroe. I would be less than impressed with either of those picks let alone both. We would be selecting McGuire with Austin Meadows and Ryne Stanek still on the board. I like the prospect of either of those over McGuire, he is a HS catcher and historically will almost assuredly fail in his attempt to be a major league catcher. Meadows has a higher ceiling, higher floor and historically a much better chance of being a major league outfielder.

 

[element1286]

Hmmmm....well I haven't been following the draft too much this year. But McGuire seems like a reasonable pick in a vacuum. I'm not sure I buy he will assuredly fail as a catcher, that seems like a stretch.

I've read some on Stanek and I'm not a fan, he doesn't have a big upside, the stuff seems above average, and he hasn't performed well this year, not a fan.

I'd definitely take Meadows though over both, and Colin Frazier is intriguing as well.

Also, would be nice to get one of the third base prospects, preferably Petersen.

 

[thecrow124]

Hmmmm....well I haven't been following the draft too much this year. But McGuire seems like a reasonable pick in a vacuum. I'm not sure I buy he will assuredly fail as a catcher, that seems like a stretch.

I've read some on Stanek and I'm not a fan, he doesn't have a big upside, the stuff seems above average, and he hasn't performed well this year, not a fan.

I'd definitely take Meadows though over both, and Colin Frazier is intriguing as well.

Also, would be nice to get one of the third base prospects, preferably Petersen.

I will have to search for the article when I get home. It broke down players drafted by position at the high school level and the college level over the best 10 year period since te draft was implemented and the absolute worst player to draft is a high school catcher. Not only did they almost never make it to the majors as a catcher, they almost never made it to the majors period. It is just the worst value pick you could possibly make in the first round.

As for Stanek, I wasn't a fan until I saw video. The stuff is there and it is good, and in the second half of the season he had pretty good results. Although not my first choice at #9 if he is there I don't think there will be anyone better, but last year goes to show that you just never know.

I have a top 15 in my head that doesn't really have much of an order, but suffice to say ReeseMcGuire is not in it and neither is Hunter Renfroe.