Draft Value

[Yankee Traveler]

I just don't understand "Draft Value" and the trades that happen/don't happen.

For instance Ryan Mallet was supposed to be "First Round Talent" but fell to the third round because he smoked a little weed. His talent is unquestioned, never has been, but he partook in some ganja so he fell.

Apples to oranges because it is a different position, but Cordarrelle Patterson has all the physical talent but was considered late first/early second due to some drops and how he does catch against his body.

My point is this;
Mallet is coveted by Bill, which should carry some weight, and has some NFL experiance, even if it is marginal. if the Pats traded him, reports are they might get a second round pick.
Patterson has not seen an NFL locker room, nevermind the field. He was worth a second rounder as well. And a third. And a fourth. And a seventh.

What makes Patterson, an unknown, worth so much more than Mallet, a known? I mean, the Pats played the Ravens (and Bernard Pollard) twice last year (once scheduled) and Bill was more than happy with Mallet as the only backup on the roster...That says ALOT in my book.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

And, no, I do not think Mallet should be on the trading block if Bill is happy with him. Just making the comparison.

 

[Zig]

I've heard a few teams are interested in Mallet. Wouldn't shock me if he's traded(tonight)

 

[Drawmeomg]

My understanding is that the Patriots will not even consider anything short of a 2013 2nd rounder or a 2014 1st rounder for him, and my sense is that they wouldn't be thrilled with just a 2nd rounder.

Then again, one GM was quoted as saying that if Ryan Mallett was in this draft he'd have been the slam dunk 1st overall pick.

So, we'll see if that was a smoke screen or if someone ponies up and gives them a 2nd and a 3rd or something for him. Honestly, though, I think Bill will be happier to just let him finish out his rookie contract as a backup CB and pick his team after that than to trade him away.

We chronically underrate the value of backup quarterbacks. The argument usually goes along the lines of: if Brady goes down, the Patriots aren't going anywhere anyway, so who cares about the backup?

But the value of a backup QB isn't in that kind of scenario, it's in: Brady goes down for 3 games, a quality backup wins 2 of them and keeps them in line for a playoff bye, a bad backup loses 2 or 3 of them and puts them in the 4th seed or a wild card, or maybe even missing the playoffs.

 

[Drawmeomg]

Here's the relevant BB quote:

Q: Did you find that there was more bunching than normal?
BB: I think there was a lot of depth in the third round. I think there are lot of interesting prospects that are still on the board. I think there’s plenty of quality in that second, third, fourth round where we were. Not that there wasn’t in the first as well, but I think it was maybe more evenly spread out.


He's viewing these 2nd and 3rd round picks as nearly comparable to the first rounders, and that's why that day 1 trade made sense to him.

 

[dblakejr7]

From most reports I read, most teams valued between 15-20 actual first round talent, the rest could be interchanged between the the second and thrid rounds.. the elite talent just wasnt there this year.