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calsnowskier
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So now that Brown is officially a bust (at least as far as the Giants are concerned), I wanted to look at the recent 1st rounders (ignoring comp round picks - Crick, Gillaspie, etc)...
2014 - Tyler Beede - Way too early to tell.
2013 - Christian Arroyo - Too early to tell, but I am a big fan of his. He was drafted out of HS, so we still have about 4 years or so before we need to even begin to worry about him.
2012 - Chris Stratton - He was drafted (presumably) due to his proximity to the Majors. Well, he has not performed like a prospect on the fast-track. WAY too early to declare him a bust, but I would se he is closer to a bust than he is to a HR.
2011 - Joe Panik - Too early to declare him a HR, but he has already cleared the bust bar by a good margin. Heck, if he were to walk away from the game today, he may still qualify as a HR pick since there is absolutely zero chance we win in 2014 if not for him. Add to that the fact that he looks like a Robbie Thompson 2.0, and I do not think anyone can argue that this was GREAT pick.
2010 - Gary Brown - Bust. Pure and simple.
2009 - Zack Wheeler - If you ONLY look at what the Giants got out of this pick, I think it safe to call it a bust pick. However, he was a big enough piece to acquire the best bat available during a pennant chase, so regardless of the end result, the pick's value was realized and spent for an asset the org wanted/needed. If you look at ZACK WHEELER, ignoring what the Giants got out of the pick, I think it safe to say he has done enough to clear the Bust bar, but not by much, YET. Let's see if he recovers from TJ and how he proceeds in '16 and beyond.
2008 - Buster Posey - Face of Baseball. This pick was the equivalent of a lead-off, 6-run HR.
2007 - Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Wendall Fairley - Bum was also a lead-off, 6-run HR of a pick. Failey was a bust, but he was a high-risk high-reward pick to begin with. I am OK with those. Alderson, in the vacuum of himself, was a bust. However, the Giants bought a championship with the pick, so I would have to rate the value of the asset at a solid double, maybe more.
2006 - Tim Lincecum - Two CYs, Ace of the 2010 rotation. Ignore what has happened since after 2011, he was a HR pick. If the Giants had the #1 pick in the draft, and they were guarenteed to get that same production out of a kid, I would be THRILLED if that was what they got. Solid lead-off grand slam. Clearly not as good as Bum or Posey, but certainly organization-changing, and that is more than you can ever hope for from a single draft pick.
2005 - No first rounder
2004 - No first rounder
2003 - David Aardsma - Any discussion about all the players in the history of the game must start with him. Literally. Alphabetically, he is player #1. As a Giants pick, though, I would say he ranks as a 7th inning, 2-out, bases-empty walk in a game we are losing 8-2. Nice to have, but certainly would not even qualify as a side note in the game-story the next day. He was packaged with Williams to get LaTroy Hawkins. To this day, I still do not understand that trade.
2002 - Matt Cain - He was the face of the franchise during the lean years, and then was the old-man in the clubhouse as the Giants became "The Joneses". All the while, he performed like a low-end Ace for an extended period of time. No HOFer, but he will certainly go down as a key member of the Golden-Years of the Giants organization. Solid HR pick.
2001 - Noah Lowry - If not for the injury and the following bad blood with the org, this would have been a great pick. As it was, his fictionalized brother led to years of classic posting here and on Disney. For that along, he was a solid double of a pick.
2001 - Brad Hennessey - Middling, dime-a-dozen player for 3-4 years in SF. Nice single of a pick, but in the grand scheme of things, not much more valuable than a bust.
2000 - Boof Bonser - He was the centerpiece of the AJ trade. That alone should rank him as a bust in the Giants eyes. He had 3+ years in the bigs as a middling, dime-a-dozen player.
Once the Giants decided to dedicate themselves to the draft (starting with the '06 draft), I dont think any other org can argue that they have done more with 1st rounders than the Giants. Of course, that argument ignores the punting strategy they showed in '04 and '06, and the fact that they BASICALLY punted all but 1 pick in the '07 draft (they had 6 freaking picks, and only one of the picks was anywhere near slot - what a wasted opportunity!).
Just some food for thought on this day, when one of this family is officially laid to rest...
2014 - Tyler Beede - Way too early to tell.
2013 - Christian Arroyo - Too early to tell, but I am a big fan of his. He was drafted out of HS, so we still have about 4 years or so before we need to even begin to worry about him.
2012 - Chris Stratton - He was drafted (presumably) due to his proximity to the Majors. Well, he has not performed like a prospect on the fast-track. WAY too early to declare him a bust, but I would se he is closer to a bust than he is to a HR.
2011 - Joe Panik - Too early to declare him a HR, but he has already cleared the bust bar by a good margin. Heck, if he were to walk away from the game today, he may still qualify as a HR pick since there is absolutely zero chance we win in 2014 if not for him. Add to that the fact that he looks like a Robbie Thompson 2.0, and I do not think anyone can argue that this was GREAT pick.
2010 - Gary Brown - Bust. Pure and simple.
2009 - Zack Wheeler - If you ONLY look at what the Giants got out of this pick, I think it safe to call it a bust pick. However, he was a big enough piece to acquire the best bat available during a pennant chase, so regardless of the end result, the pick's value was realized and spent for an asset the org wanted/needed. If you look at ZACK WHEELER, ignoring what the Giants got out of the pick, I think it safe to say he has done enough to clear the Bust bar, but not by much, YET. Let's see if he recovers from TJ and how he proceeds in '16 and beyond.
2008 - Buster Posey - Face of Baseball. This pick was the equivalent of a lead-off, 6-run HR.
2007 - Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Wendall Fairley - Bum was also a lead-off, 6-run HR of a pick. Failey was a bust, but he was a high-risk high-reward pick to begin with. I am OK with those. Alderson, in the vacuum of himself, was a bust. However, the Giants bought a championship with the pick, so I would have to rate the value of the asset at a solid double, maybe more.
2006 - Tim Lincecum - Two CYs, Ace of the 2010 rotation. Ignore what has happened since after 2011, he was a HR pick. If the Giants had the #1 pick in the draft, and they were guarenteed to get that same production out of a kid, I would be THRILLED if that was what they got. Solid lead-off grand slam. Clearly not as good as Bum or Posey, but certainly organization-changing, and that is more than you can ever hope for from a single draft pick.
2005 - No first rounder
2004 - No first rounder
2003 - David Aardsma - Any discussion about all the players in the history of the game must start with him. Literally. Alphabetically, he is player #1. As a Giants pick, though, I would say he ranks as a 7th inning, 2-out, bases-empty walk in a game we are losing 8-2. Nice to have, but certainly would not even qualify as a side note in the game-story the next day. He was packaged with Williams to get LaTroy Hawkins. To this day, I still do not understand that trade.
2002 - Matt Cain - He was the face of the franchise during the lean years, and then was the old-man in the clubhouse as the Giants became "The Joneses". All the while, he performed like a low-end Ace for an extended period of time. No HOFer, but he will certainly go down as a key member of the Golden-Years of the Giants organization. Solid HR pick.
2001 - Noah Lowry - If not for the injury and the following bad blood with the org, this would have been a great pick. As it was, his fictionalized brother led to years of classic posting here and on Disney. For that along, he was a solid double of a pick.
2001 - Brad Hennessey - Middling, dime-a-dozen player for 3-4 years in SF. Nice single of a pick, but in the grand scheme of things, not much more valuable than a bust.
2000 - Boof Bonser - He was the centerpiece of the AJ trade. That alone should rank him as a bust in the Giants eyes. He had 3+ years in the bigs as a middling, dime-a-dozen player.
Once the Giants decided to dedicate themselves to the draft (starting with the '06 draft), I dont think any other org can argue that they have done more with 1st rounders than the Giants. Of course, that argument ignores the punting strategy they showed in '04 and '06, and the fact that they BASICALLY punted all but 1 pick in the '07 draft (they had 6 freaking picks, and only one of the picks was anywhere near slot - what a wasted opportunity!).
Just some food for thought on this day, when one of this family is officially laid to rest...
