Deeper Passes

[MHSL82]

A few of Alex Smith's deeper passes are here.

Yes, I know, just like statistics, if you find the right ones, they can make almost any argument, if not all. Highlights are exactly that, not the whole picture and this is not side-by-side any other QBs highlight reel.

I'd start at 1:14.

 

[MHSL82]

Pass Atlas: A Map of Where NFL Quarterbacks Throw the Ball - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith has led the Chiefs to their first 3-0 start since 2010.

With Alex Smith, it's not about the yards or the arm -- it's about the scoreboard

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- "Dink" and "dump" may be four-letter words, but they're not obscenities. In fact, of the last nine quarterbacks to pilot an AFC West team to the playoffs, five of them -- 55.5 percent -- averaged fewer than seven yards per pass attempt over the course of their career: Jon Kitna (6.7), Rich Gannon (6.8), Jake Plummer (6.7), Tim Tebow (6.7) and ... Matt Cassel (6.6).

OK, fine. So it's not the best company ever to buckle a chin strap, especially when compared to the other four (Peyton Manning (7.7), Philip Rivers (7.8), Trent Green (7.6) and Brian Griese (7.0)) contestants on the catwalk.

But the point remains: A signal-caller that throws a pretty deep ball is nice to have, but you can punch a ticket to the postseason without one. Honest.

With a 3-0 record and a defense that's flying around like a pack of angry badgers, the Kansas City Chiefs of present have given the locals far few things to be miffed about than the usual sky-is-falling, fire-them-all narrative of recent Septembers. But this is the NFL, so nits will be picked.

And Alex Smith's arm has been picked on more often than most. Through three games, the Chiefs' new quarterback has done everything asked of him, although that "everything," to date, hasn't included an awful lot of heavy lifting. He's completed 64 of his 105 throws (61 percent) for 223 yards per contest, tossed four touchdowns against zero interceptions, taken care of the football, made good decisions, run a little, and checked down a lot.

An awful, awful lot.

It's this last one that has some people edgy, especially the people who happened to have the Chiefs' big wideout, Dwayne Bowe, on their fantasy team. To date, the 6-foot-2 Bowe has been targeted an average of 5.7 times per contest, snaring three receptions a game. A year ago, he averaged 8.8 targets and 4.5 catches a contest. After Week 3 in 2012, Bowe had been targeted 37 times; this year, it's just 17.

"We have different personnel groups that we're using," Coach Andy Reid had said late last week when asked about Bowe's role in the passing attack. "Everything's fine. Yeah. Everything's fine."

For now, at least. A month in, this looks like a Chiefs team that falls somewhere between the Martyball salad days of the ‘90s and the better versions of Rex Ryan's Jets, from whose staff new defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, no coincidence, was plucked.

It's not a sexy formula, but with the right horses, it works. Attack on defense; trust your Pro-Bowl punter to win the field-position game; trust your Pro-Bowl running back to hang onto the ball and grind out the tough yards; and trust your quarterback to turn the game over to the aforementioned punter and defense rather than force anything or get cute.

Like Brian Billick in Baltimore a dozen years earlier, Reid is an offensive mastermind at the helm of a potential defensive monster, a team designed to win games 19-16 as opposed to, say, 38-35.

And through three games, Smith has pretty much picked up right where he left off early last fall in San Francisco, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt; for his career, that nahem umber is 6.6, which ranks 25th out of all active quarterbacks. According to ProFootballFocus.com, of Smith's passes, 82.9 percent of been in the air for 10 yards or fewer, the highest-such percentage in the league.

"I don't really care about that," Reid said when asked about the -- ahem -- conservative passing approach to this point.

"I care about points. I care about turnovers. I think you saw (that) when everything was on the line, it was pretty doggone good. That's also important."

Because there's this, too: FootballOutsiders.com's "Defensive-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement" statistic -- think Wins Above Replacement, but for football nerds -- rates Smith 10th among NFL quarterbacks, ahead of reputed gunslingers such as Jay Cutler, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepenerick, the man who replaced him in San Francisco. And in his last 28 NFL regular-season starts, Smith's record is now a sparkling 22-5-1.

"I would tell you that you're going to have a mix, as we go, of deep balls and a mix of short ones that you get (to throw)," Reid said. "It's a blend, normally. That's how it works."

And it's working, so far, warts and all. Whether Reid and company trust Smith enough to test defenses over the top, whether Smith trusts himself, or whether he's simply taking what he thinks is being given is open for debate. The West Coast offense, historically, likes to push slot men and tight ends deep, and the Chiefs' depth at the latter position has been decimated by injuries in the early going. So until Anthony Fasano and Travis Kelce are running at full speed, you could make a case that we haven't really seen Smith at full speed, yet, either.

Although, in the marathon that is the regular season, the combo of slow and steady wins plenty of races, too. The Chiefs head into Week 4 against the New York Giants ranked sixth in the NFL in average time of possession (32:56 per game) and third in the league in time of possession on the road (35:18), behind only New England and Indianapolis.

Keeping defenses honest is good. Keeping them on the field, exhausted, is even better.

 

[MHSL82]

Oh, man! Why can’t Alex Smith throw deep? By Joe Mantegna

According to ESPN's Passing Splits, Alex Smith has attempted 3 passes 21+ yards downfield this year, completing one. This is one of the go-to criticisms of Alex Smith, that he refuses to push the ball downfield. The only completion he's had throwing these balls was the 31-yard completion to Avery on 3 & 9 against the Cowboys. Smith's throw on 3 & 10 in the 4th quarter against the Eagles, also to Avery, did not qualify because the ball only traveled 15 yards from the line of scrimmage. The play included a five-step drop from the shotgun formation, which placed Smith 5 yards deep in the end-zone. While the pass did travel ~24 yards in the air, it was only ~15 from the line of scrimmage.

So he completes that pass to Avery against the Cowboys, but the opening shot to Anthony Fasano against the Jags falls incomplete, and the hail Mary before the half against the Eagles falls incomplete. 1-of-3, 31 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. That means that on throws 21+ yards downfield from the line of scrimmage Smith has averaged 10.3 Y/A thus far.

Not spectacular, but certainly not bad. What is obviously worrying is the ridiculously small sample size. Smith does not like throwing it deep unless he has to; I think this much has been proven. Of all the QB's I looked into, his 3 attempts has been the fewest, and his one completion also ties for the fewest. Here are the passing splits of some other QB's I looked up thus far in 2013.

Now, because we are only three weeks into the season (this article is pointless?), there are clearly some outliers that need to be taken care of...

However, a lot of these statistics correctly fit the QB they are sizing up. Flacco really is the gunslinger we make him out to be. Only without Boldin there, he has seen much less success. Rodgers has the most arm talent of any QB in the league--period. (though having the best receivers should mediate the "WoWs" his stats generate a bit).

Smith's 10 Y/A on these throws seems to be about the league average, though I have not posted every QB. His Comp Pct. also seems to be about average. The interesting thing here is the number of QB's with more (in some cases many more) attempts downfield, but with equal completions. Tom Brady (10 attempts), Ben Roethlisberger (10), Tony Romo (4), Andrew Luck (8), Robert Griffin III (8), Matt Stafford (4). Then you have guys like Flacco (2 of 15), Rivers (2 of 8), Vick (2 of 8) and Eli (2 of 8), who have squeaked out one more completion, but at the cost of their Comp. Pct.

Lets make some inferences with these statistics.

Even though the story has been spun more times than I can remember, I think it is worth noting that Smith is playing in a new offense for what is now the 8th time in a 9-year career. I try to stay away from subjective explanations of this sort, but since it is the basis of this section, I have to tread into these waters.

Smith was never a prolific downfield thrower during his time in San Francisco, but he did have something that made this part of his game much easier: Vernon Davis. Indeed, all of the 49ers significant offensive weapons are players that came up with, and struggled with, Alex Smith before Harbaugh came to town. Frank Gore was drafted the same year as Alex Smith, 2005; and Vernon Davis just a year later, in 2006. Crabtree was drafted the year Alex Smith came back from his shoulder injury, 2009. Even though I may be overstating it a bit, the chemistry that develops between players over this time is both significant and incalculable. When throwing to Davis downfield, Smith always seemed to put the ball where he could get it, and when throwing to newer additions on the team (Kyle Williams, Randy Moss) Smith always seemed to overshoot a bit.

The success of KC's offense in the future, I believe, hinges on Smith's ability to foster such a connection with his new receiving corps.

In any case, there are some other QB's who have experienced similar turnover in the 2013 year, and I think it is worth comparing Smith to these players. Carson Palmer, like Smith, switched teams, moving from OAK to ARI. He is now with a new head coach and is throwing to new receivers. Tom Brady is with the same team as last year, but he is throwing to a completely new set of receivers. Gronk got injured, Hernandez got arrested, Welker got traded and Lloyd retired. Philip Rivers is on the same team, and is throwing to a few of the same receivers, but is playing in a new offensive system for a new coach.

Palmer is in the most similar situation. He is playing for a proven offensive mind (Arians v. Reid) and has a proven playmaker on his team (Fitzgerald v. Bowe). Brady and Rivers are both lacking deep threats on their team. Palmer's performance in this metric dwarfs the other 3 QB's listed.

Why doesn't Smith throw it deep more?

I have absolutely no idea. But there are two competing ideas in my head, and depending on which proves to be right, I also might not care. Smith has thrown 3 balls 21+ yards downfield from the line of scrimmage through three weeks, which averages out to 1 per game. Most QB's have thrown somewhere between 6 and 10 passes at this range through 3 weeks. That is 2-3 such passes per week.

Does that really matter? One extra pass per game? Would any of us feel better about the passing game if Smith just forced himself to throw deep two times per game instead of once?

The really maddening thing, for me at least, about these criticisms of Smith's play is that he has consistently been able to make these downfield throws when he had to. I don't like editorializing (who am I kidding...), but I think it is pretty safe to say that without Smith's throw to Avery on 3 & 9 against the Cowboys, and his 3 & 10 throw to Avery against the Eagles, the Chiefs could very well be 1-2.

Week 2: Cowboys come out of the halftime break with a 10-7 lead. Romo begins the half with an 8-minute scoring drive that gives the Chiefs the ball with under 7 minutes left in the 3rd. Then, after one 1st down, the Chiefs drive stalls at their own 32, and they are facing a 3 & 9. If Smith doesn't make this throw to Avery, and the Chiefs have to give the ball back to DAL with good field position (and all of the momentum), the ‘boys could have easily taken a 2-score lead and given the ball back after the 4th Quarter break.

Week 3: As the 4th quarter starts, Smith leads a TD drive that puts the Chiefs up 2 scores, but the Eagles quickly, and non-chalantly, respond with a TD drive of their own. Chiefs drop the ensuing kickoff, and the crowd begins to pick up volume as the Chiefs face a 3 & 10 from their own 5-yard line. If Smith doesn't stand tall in the pocket and deliver this perfect ball to Avery, the Chiefs have to give the ball back to the Eagles with good field position (and all of the momentum) in a position to get the go-ahead score. Instead, Smith converts the 3rd & long and marches them downfield to put the game out of reach.
Hmm...

Both of these downfield passes were completed when the Chiefs needed a big play. People say, "Oh, Smith has a weak arm, he only gets passes downfield on play-action ‘shot' plays." Yet, both of Smith's long completions (and The Catch III, I might add) this year came on 3rd & long, in a critical game situation where the defense knew a pass was coming.

Is it possible the pejoratively-marked "intelligent" QB is picking his shots? Playing it safe for most of the game because an interception is unequivocally worse than a 20-yard completion is good, and then turning it on when the team needs him to take shots? Yes, it is possible.

But it's also BORING. Hey Alex! You won more games than Kaep in 2012! You lost your job because you never hucked it. You have led the worst team in the league to a 3-0 start; I think its due time you let loose a bit. Start huckin'!

 

[MHSL82]

I took out the charts of the above article because of formatting and space. Here it is in its entirety: Oh, man! Why can't Alex Smith throw deep? - Arrowhead Pride

 

[Black Adam]

thanks for all that data MH, but to be honest my thing is that if short passes are working i have no problem with it. sure it'd be nice to be able to back the opposing defenses off the box and all, but no need to force things. 'sides, as you know, the WCO is predicated on a lot of short passes anyways. still, this is good stuff...

 

[MHSL82]

thanks for all that data MH, but to be honest my thing is that if short passes are working i have no problem with it. sure it'd be nice to be able to back the opposing defenses off the box and all, but no need to force things. 'sides, as you know, the WCO is predicated on a lot of short passes anyways. still, this is good stuff...

I don't like nor agree with the first sentence, but that's another issue. Being used one way is different than being one, but I digress. (Game Manager is a four-letter word as far as I'm concerned. I don't care how it's used or how accurate/inaccurate it is.)

But here's a good article about how Smith will make the risky throws if needed.

Alex Smith ignores the easy throw: Breaking down 3rd-and-10 - Arrowhead Pride

 

[Black Adam]

I don't like nor agree with the first sentence, but that's another issue. Being used one way is different than being one, but I digress. (Game Manager is a four-letter word as far as I'm concerned. I don't care how it's used or how accurate/inaccurate it is.)

But here's a good article about how Smith will make the risky throws if needed.

Alex Smith ignores the easy throw: Breaking down 3rd-and-10 - Arrowhead Pride

good find...

 

[Black Adam]

not liking the mistakes by Smith today, but the Chiefs ARE up by 10. let's see what happens...

 

[Black Adam]

btw, looks like now you'll have to give Dex a bit of a break, MH. lol...

 

[Black Adam]

24-7, feeling a LOT better about this game now. Giants have been a pain to knock off for the Chiefs in recent times...

 

[Black Adam]

and btw, i L-O-V-E this defense...!!!

 

[Black Adam]

4-0 Chiefs. lol, who saw THAT comin'...?

 

[MHSL82]

btw, looks like now you'll have to give Dex a bit of a break, MH. lol...

? I don't write the articles. I'm not sure where I've ever said anything bad about Dex. Any help here?

 

[Black Adam]

? I don't write the articles. I'm not sure where I've ever said anything bad about Dex. Any help here?

oh ok. thought you went along with the article somewhere as far as Dex went. my mistake...