Considering a Deal

[tlance]

Right now, I have a hot mess on my hands in one of my $ leagues. I have a bunch of RBs who are playing like Flex options and in the shocker of the century, my WR2 (Amendola) is injured.

Here are my RBs/WRs:

RB- Spiller, Miller, Bell, Bernard, Moreno
WR- Bryant, Tate, S. Hill, Amendola, Harvin

Here is the deal:

I send Spiller and Bernard
I get Richardson and T. Austin

Like most, I am very high on Gio, but I need a no brainer RB option I can plug in every week. Gio and Spiller can both be that, but TRich is that right now. I think the move to Indy will be huge for his long term value. Pep Hamilton is a run first, run second guy and I have TRich as a top 3 RB the rest of the way. What are your thoughts?

 

[TREFF]

I personally think your giving up too much. Might be able to get that same deal with either Miller or Bell in for Bernard. I too have Richardson high the rest of the way. .but not high enough to justify CJ and Gio..Austin is so little of a factor in the deal, I barely take him into account.
I'd counter with Miller or Bell in Gio's spot, or ask for a bit more in the kickback than Tavon.

 

[The Foot]

I would do that Tiance. Spiller looks like he doesnt want the starting job. Some guys play better when thye are fighting for something and when they get there the inspiration abandons them and bernard is still up and down. Even thoiugh I am not a big Trich guy with bradshaw always hurt and D's having to respect the pass Trich "should" have no choice but be productive. And I love, love, love, Tavon once he stops over thinking the big playbook and just goes out to bust some heads.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I personally think your giving up too much. Might be able to get that same deal with either Miller or Bell in for Bernard. I too have Richardson high the rest of the way. .but not high enough to justify CJ and Gio..Austin is so little of a factor in the deal, I barely take him into account.
I'd counter with Miller or Bell in Gio's spot, or ask for a bit more in the kickback than Tavon.

same... but I think you'd be giving up way too much.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I would not do that deal dude! Maybe next year but I too think you are giving up too much. Switch Gio with somebody else. Which Bell is it you have? Try Spiller and Miller.............let him pick the toss in.

 

[wilwhite]

I'm not at all sure TRich is an upgrade over Gio, and I'm not at all convinced he'll be a no-brainer to plug in every week. Bradshaw can hurt him a lot, and it's a passing team nayway. And no way I'd trade Spiller for Tavon. So it's a big no.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm not at all sure TRich is an upgrade over Gio, and I'm not at all convinced he'll be a no-brainer to plug in every week. Bradshaw can hurt him a lot, and it's a passing team anyway. And no way I'd trade Spiller for Tavon. So it's a big no.

3 games, 92 passes, 92 rushes
You may look at these stats and say, yup, that's an even 50/50 split, which of course, it is. But, consider this, that's 92/2576 total rushes in the NFL compared to 92/3593 total pass attempts. So you could actually argue that the lead RB on Indy is getting more touches than the lead back on a lot of other teams. 5th lowest pass attempts in the league vs 7th most rush attempts. And, if they get more than 25 carries @JAX, they will pass SF, 26 carries for the team is very realistic this weekend.


As for Bradshaw, even barring the injury potential, I think his past injuries have banged him up enough that he will be the one on limited touches per game. TRich gets a chance to showcase it this weekend, and he could easily have a big day and lock down +70% of the committee going forward.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

as for the deal mentioned - I think I'd at the very least try to get a better secondary player and keep Bernard, like Treff said. If that's not possible, you have to try to get a WR that has comparable value to Bernard, and I think he is quite a few spots up the board from where ever anyone thinks Tavon is right now.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

parting note -
TRich's next 11 games (wk 5 - wk 16):
SEA, @SD, DEN, @HOU, STL, @TEN, @ARZ, TEN, @CIN, HOU, @KC

I can see big games vs STL, possibly Zona as well, but who's to say that the Colts will be able to pound it against SEA, TEN, DEN, HOU, SD, CIN, KC?

Titans are worst in the group, and they did alright vs SD and great vs PIT, but got handled by HOU.
SD, KC, CIN, SEA, HOU, DEN are all pretty stout vs the run. DEN has given up 1 TD each game so far, but only 90 total yds vs the run, insane.

 

[wilwhite]

TRich gets a chance to showcase it this weekend, and he could easily have a big day and lock down +70% of the committee going forward.

Luck had 14 of those 92 rushes. 70% of the rest (which I find optimistic) would give Trent 18 carries a game. I see a couple of good games but plenty of single-digit fantasy games in Trent's future.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I think you're giving up too much. Then again, I don't see TRich as a top 3 RB going forward like you do.

 

[TREFF]

Luck had 14 of those 92 rushes. 70% of the rest (which I find optimistic) would give Trent 18 carries a game. I see a couple of good games but plenty of single-digit fantasy games in Trent's future.

Well he stands to get most all of 'em this week. And against JAX... If he's going to be a top 5, hell even a top 10-type of back. . We'd better see it tomorrow. And IF we do.. Bradshaw is strictly a change of pace whenever he comes back. At least I think.

 

[The Foot]

I agree with that. If Trich dont do much tomorrow then everyone in the news will be singing the praise of the Cleveland Brown's new staff for dumping him for a first rounder!!

 

[tlance]

Will see what happens tomorrow. I think you guys are sleeping on the Indy run game though. It isn't so much the player as it is the situation I would be betting on here. Gio and Spiller is a hefty price, I know, but I am tired of watching my 3 starting RBs combine for under 10 points (has happened twice already).

Wil, Indy is NOT a pass first team anymore. They are somewhere between run first and balanced. Now that they have the RB they want, you will see the run/pass split start to tip toward run heavy.

 

[tlance]

Thanks all for the replies. Will be tough for me to decide because I really like TRich, obviously.

 

[The Foot]

yea plus spiller just doesnt look like a first rounder anymore and I think people have it ingrained in the head that spiller is worth more than he is because he was projected as a first rounder this year but the truth is he is not.

 

[TREFF]

yea plus spiller just doesnt look like a first rounder anymore and I think people have it ingrained in the head that spiller is worth more than he is because he was projected as a first rounder this year but the truth is he is not.

I think I've somehow been transported to parallel universe. Did Foot really just say Spiller isn't a first rounder?? Our Foot??

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Thanks all for the replies. Will be tough for me to decide because I really like TRich, obviously.

I like him too but not at the expence of Spiller and Gio..............I mean Austin is just a throw in anyway.

 

[tlance]

I like him too but not at the expence of Spiller and Gio..............I mean Austin is just a throw in anyway.

Agreed on Austin. He is a WR that I could play in a good match-up (maybe). If I took Vincent Jackson as the 2nd player, that would tip the scales in my favor for sure, just not sure he would do that.

Some additional backgorund:

Talks started when he offered Antonio Brown and McGahee for Gio and Harvin.

I told him he was crazy and that I wouldn't move Harvin unless he paid for him and that Gio wasn't going anywhere without me getting a true elite RB in return. I also told him I had no interest in acquiring Brown on the heels of his carer game that is utterly unrepeatable.

As much as it pains me considering how high I was on Spiller pre-season, I tend to agree with Foot on his ROS outlook, which is why I am so torn here.

I can counter, but I am pretty sure this is the only way to get TRich.

Thanks again for the replies. You guys have talked some sense into me for sure.

 

[Barilko]

Tiance i think that you are one of the most knowledgeable posters of them all
but im with the masses here way too steep....

however i do like TRich and with many to many Rbs not coming through i do believe TRich has as good a chance as any the rest of the way

another Rb i believe in is \\\\\\Wilson in the apple ya believe it nice schedule..

you mention Brown wont match the career game..maybe not but he is a solid WR with Leveon Bell pulling LB s into the box Brown should be a productive option at WR....