Coming Off A Bye Week

[boxedlunch]

It's often said that coming off a bye week is an advantage. While there's are some advantages in doing so, what's overlooked are the disadvantages. For one, teams lose their rhythm, which can affect their play.

Looking at just major conference teams, in conference games I checked the records of teams when they come off a bye week and play a team that didn't since 2000 and came up with the following. "Major conferences" were The ACC, The Big East (AAC), The Big 12, The Big Ten, The PAC-12, and The SEC.

Teams that came off a bye week had a losing record at 298-318 (0.48377). Their opponents conference winning percentage in other games was 0.52970.

Record by conference:

PAC-12 (54-51-0)--0.51429
Big 12 (40-38-0)--0.51282
SEC (74-75-0)--0.49664
Big Ten (48-49-0)--0.49485
AAC (36-46-0)--0.43902
ACC (46-59-0)--0.43810

Total: (298-318-0)--0.48377

Home games:

Big 12 (27-15-0)--0.64286
PAC-12 (30-21-0)--0.58824
Big Ten (27-21-0)--0.56250
AAC (20-16-0)--0.55556
SEC (36-38-0)--0.48649
ACC (23-30-0)--0.43396

Total: (163-141-0)--0.53618

Away games:

SEC (30-35-0)--0.46154
PAC-12 (24-30-0)--0.44444
ACC (23-29-0)--0.44231
Big Ten (21-28-0)--0.42857
Big 12 (13-22-0)--0.37143
AAC (16-30-0)--0.34783

Total: (127-174-0)--0.42193

By teams (only in major conference conference games):

Oregon (8-0-0)--1.00000
Texas (3-0-0)--1.00000
Louisville (3-0-0)--1.00000
Texas A&M (1-0-0)--1.00000
Houston (1-0-0)--1.00000
Florida (13-1-0)--0.92857
Alabama (7-1-0)--0.87500
Georgia (9-2-0)--0.81818
Michigan (8-2-0)--0.80000
Florida St. (4-1-0)--0.80000
Iowa St. (4-1-0)--0.80000
Nebraska (4-1-0)--0.80000
Oklahoma (10-3-0)--0.76923
Oregon St. (10-4-0)--0.71429
Miami (FL) (7-3-0)--0.70000
Virginia (6-3-0)--0.66667
Clemson (6-3-0)--0.66667
South Carolina (6-3-0)--0.66667
Wisconsin (6-3-0)--0.66667
Ohio St. (5-3-0)--0.62500
USC (5-3-0)--0.62500
LSU (8-5-0)--0.61538
Kansas St. (3-2-0)--0.60000
Penn St. (5-4-0)--0.55556
Georgia Tech (6-5-0)--0.54545
UCLA (7-6-0)--0.53846
Tennessee (9-8-0)--0.52941
Wake Forest (7-7-0)--0.50000
Rutgers (6-6-0)--0.50000
Auburn (5-5-0)--0.50000
Pittsburgh (5-5-0)--0.50000
Iowa (4-4-0)--0.50000
N.C. State (4-4-0)--0.50000
Purdue (3-3-0)--0.50000
West Virginia (1-1-0)--0.50000
Arizona (6-7-0)--0.46154
California (5-6-0)--0.45455
Oklahoma St. (6-8-0)--0.42857
Cincinnati (3-4-0)--0.42857
Minnesota (3-4-0)--0.42857
Missouri (5-7-0)--0.41667
Michigan St. (4-6-0)--0.40000
Kansas (4-6-0)--0.40000
Washington St. (4-6-0)--0.40000
Virginia Tech (2-3-0)--0.40000
Temple (2-3-0)--0.40000
Stanford (3-5-0)--0.37500
Arizona St. (3-5-0)--0.37500
Mississippi St. (5-9-0)--0.35714
Maryland (3-6-0)--0.33333
Colorado (1-2-0)--0.33333
Syracuse (4-9-0)--0.30769
Northwestern (3-7-0)--0.30000
Washington (3-7-0)--0.30000
Connecticut (3-7-0)--0.30000
Indiana (2-5-0)--0.28571
Baylor (2-5-0)--0.28571
North Carolina (3-8-0)--0.27273
Illinois (3-8-0)--0.27273
Boston College (3-9-0)--0.25000
South Fla. (2-6-0)--0.25000
Texas Tech (1-3-0)--0.25000
Arkansas (3-10-0)--0.23077
Mississippi (3-12-0)--0.20000
Vanderbilt (2-9-0)--0.18182
Kentucky (2-10-0)--0.16667
Duke (1-12-0)--0.07692
Memphis (0-1-0)--0.00000
Utah (0-1-0)--0.00000

 

[TigerBait1971]

 

[UTVolCountry]

Nice data

 

[boxedlunch]

The above games by coach:

Urban Meyer (8-0-0)--1.00000
Mike Bellotti (6-0-0)--1.00000
Bret Bielema (4-0-0)--1.00000
Paul Johnson (4-0-0)--1.00000
Bobby Bowden (3-0-0)--1.00000
Brady Hoke (3-0-0)--1.00000
Mack Brown (3-0-0)--1.00000
Will Muschamp (2-0-0)--1.00000
Butch Jones (2-0-0)--1.00000
Bo Pelini (2-0-0)--1.00000
Mike London (2-0-0)--1.00000
Chip Kelly (2-0-0)--1.00000
Jim Harbaugh (2-0-0)--1.00000
Bill Callahan (2-0-0)--1.00000
Charlie Strong (2-0-0)--1.00000
Mike Shula (2-0-0)--1.00000
Paul Rhoads (1-0-0)--1.00000
Luke Fickell (1-0-0)--1.00000
Ron Prince (1-0-0)--1.00000
Jim Mora (1-0-0)--1.00000
David Shaw (1-0-0)--1.00000
Jeff Horton (1-0-0)--1.00000
John Cooper (1-0-0)--1.00000
Terry Allen (1-0-0)--1.00000
Mike DuBose (1-0-0)--1.00000
Danny Hope (1-0-0)--1.00000
Gus Malzahn (1-0-0)--1.00000
Kevin Sumlin (1-0-0)--1.00000
Cam Cameron (1-0-0)--1.00000
Bill O'Brien (1-0-0)--1.00000
Tim Brewster (1-0-0)--1.00000
Bill Stewart (1-0-0)--1.00000
Kevin Steele (1-0-0)--1.00000
Tony Levine (1-0-0)--1.00000
Kyle Flood (1-0-0)--1.00000
Gary Andersen (1-0-0)--1.00000
Steve Spurrier (8-1-0)--0.88889
Lloyd Carr (5-1-0)--0.83333
Mark Richt (9-2-0)--0.81818
Nick Saban (9-2-0)--0.81818
Dabo Swinney (4-1-0)--0.80000
Bob Stoops (10-3-0)--0.76923
Mike Riley (9-3-0)--0.75000
Dan McCarney (3-1-0)--0.75000
Steve Sarkisian (3-1-0)--0.75000
Karl Dorrell (4-2-0)--0.66667
Al Groh (4-2-0)--0.66667
Pete Carroll (4-2-0)--0.66667
Randy Shannon (2-1-0)--0.66667
Phillip Fulmer (9-5-0)--0.64286
Larry Coker (3-2-0)--0.60000
Randy Walker (3-2-0)--0.60000
Butch Davis (3-2-0)--0.60000
Ron Turner (3-2-0)--0.60000
Joe Paterno (4-3-0)--0.57143
Dennis Erickson (4-3-0)--0.57143
Greg Schiano (5-4-0)--0.55556
Jim Grobe (6-6-0)--0.50000
Jeff Tedford (5-5-0)--0.50000
Mike Gundy (5-5-0)--0.50000
Mike Stoops (5-5-0)--0.50000
Kirk Ferentz (4-4-0)--0.50000
Mark Mangino (3-3-0)--0.50000
Tommy Bowden (2-2-0)--0.50000
Bill Snyder (2-2-0)--0.50000
Bob Toledo (2-2-0)--0.50000
John Bunting (2-2-0)--0.50000
Bill Doba (2-2-0)--0.50000
Joe Tiller (2-2-0)--0.50000
Paul Chryst (1-1-0)--0.50000
Bobby Williams (1-1-0)--0.50000
Doug Marrone (1-1-0)--0.50000
Gary Barnett (1-1-0)--0.50000
James Franklin (1-1-0)--0.50000
John James 'Jimbo' Fisher (1-1-0)--0.50000
Dennis Franchione (1-1-0)--0.50000
Brian Kelly (1-1-0)--0.50000
Steve Addazio (1-1-0)--0.50000
George O'Leary (1-1-0)--0.50000
Jim Caldwell (1-1-0)--0.50000
Mike Price (1-1-0)--0.50000
Tom O'Brien (5-6-0)--0.45455
Gary Pinkel (5-6-0)--0.45455
Randy Edsall (4-5-0)--0.44444
Mark Dantonio (3-4-0)--0.42857
Sylvester Croom (3-4-0)--0.42857
Walt Harris (3-4-0)--0.42857
Tommy Tuberville (3-4-0)--0.42857
Jim Tressel (2-3-0)--0.40000
Frank Beamer (2-3-0)--0.40000
Jim Leavitt (2-3-0)--0.40000
Dan Mullen (2-3-0)--0.40000
Bobby Petrino (2-3-0)--0.40000
Les Miles (3-5-0)--0.37500
Lane Kiffin (1-2-0)--0.33333
Gerry DiNardo (1-2-0)--0.33333
Rich Rodriguez (1-2-0)--0.33333
Dave Wannstedt (1-2-0)--0.33333
Paul Wulff (1-2-0)--0.33333
David Cutcliffe (4-9-0)--0.30769
Ron Zook (2-5-0)--0.28571
Ralph Friedgen (2-5-0)--0.28571
Paul Pasqualoni (2-5-0)--0.28571
Rich Brooks (2-5-0)--0.28571
Frank Spaziani (1-3-0)--0.25000
Mike Leach (1-3-0)--0.25000
Glenn Mason (1-3-0)--0.25000
Gene Chizik (1-3-0)--0.25000
Chuck Amato (1-3-0)--0.25000
Barry Alvarez (1-3-0)--0.25000
Bobby Wallace (1-3-0)--0.25000
Art Briles (1-4-0)--0.20000
Bobby Johnson (1-4-0)--0.20000
Chan Gailey (1-4-0)--0.20000
Greg Robinson (1-4-0)--0.20000
Houston Nutt (2-9-0)--0.18182
Hugh Freeze (0-1-0)--0.00000
Mike MacIntyre (0-1-0)--0.00000
Scott Shafer (0-1-0)--0.00000
George Welsh (0-1-0)--0.00000
T. J. Weist (0-1-0)--0.00000
Darrell Hazell (0-1-0)--0.00000
Tom Holmoe (0-1-0)--0.00000
Everett Withers (0-1-0)--0.00000
Larry Smith (0-1-0)--0.00000
Mark Stoops (0-1-0)--0.00000
Jerry Kill (0-1-0)--0.00000
John Mackovic (0-1-0)--0.00000
Tom Bradley (0-1-0)--0.00000
Terry Hoeppner (0-1-0)--0.00000
Kyle Whittingham (0-1-0)--0.00000
Keith Gilbertson (0-1-0)--0.00000
Carl Torbush (0-1-0)--0.00000
Hal Mumme (0-1-0)--0.00000
Frank Solich (0-1-0)--0.00000
Charlie Weis (0-1-0)--0.00000
John R. 'Chief' Bender (0-1-0)--0.00000
Joker Phillips (0-1-0)--0.00000
Bob Simmons (0-1-0)--0.00000
Tim Beckman (0-1-0)--0.00000
Justin Fuente (0-1-0)--0.00000
Eugene 'Buddy' Teevens (0-2-0)--0.00000
Kevin Wilson (0-2-0)--0.00000
Derek Dooley (0-2-0)--0.00000
Larry Fedora (0-2-0)--0.00000
Jackie Sherrill (0-2-0)--0.00000
Turner Gill (0-2-0)--0.00000
Terry Shea (0-2-0)--0.00000
John L. Smith (0-3-0)--0.00000
Lou Holtz (0-3-0)--0.00000
Rick Neuheisel (0-3-0)--0.00000
Dirk Koetter (0-3-0)--0.00000
Skip Holtz (0-3-0)--0.00000
Guy Morriss (0-3-0)--0.00000
Woody Widenhofer (0-4-0)--0.00000
Carl Franks (0-4-0)--0.00000
Ed Orgeron (0-4-0)--0.00000
Ted Roof (0-4-0)--0.00000
Tyrone Willingham (0-5-0)--0.00000
Pat Fitzgerald (0-5-0)--0.00000

 

[BigRedMoe]

Bo Pelini and HeWhoShallNotBeNamed both at 2-0 while Frankie Solich sits at 0-1...

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

According to this Iowa has 50% chance of beating tOSU and tOSU has a 62.5% chance of beating Iowa this weekend...that's 112.5%...I'm calling bullshit

 

[WhiteMamba]

By teams (only in major conference conference games):

Oregon (8-0-0)--1.00000

 

[4down20]

Data is likely skewed by the competition teams usually take byes before. You don't take byes before you play Directional-State, you do it before big games.

 

[asu_08]

Data is likely skewed by the competition teams usually take byes before. You don't take byes before you play Directional-State, you do it before big games.

Last year our only bye was before Colorado and this year we had a week 1 bye before Sacramento State and we have a bye before Washington State...I guess we're doing it wrong.

 

[4down20]

Last year our only bye was before Colorado and this year we had a week 1 bye before Sacramento State and we have a bye before Washington State...I guess we're doing it wrong.

 

[Rolltide94]

Last year our only bye was before Colorado and this year we had a week 1 bye before Sacramento State and we have a bye before Washington State...I guess we're doing it wrong.

I'm guessing there is somebody in the Pac-12 office who doesn't give a rats ass about ASU...although some of those are likely self inflicted

 

[HuskerinBig10]

Nebraska needs to schedule Northwestern after Northwestern has a bye week.

Always play a team coached by a Holtz after a BYE week.

 

[006]

Tennessee (9-8-0)--0.52941

Phillip Fulmer (9-5-0)--0.64286

Kiffin lost to Alabama (Mt. Cody) in 2009
Dooley lost to Alabama in 2010
Dooley beat Buffalo in 2011
Dooley lost to Miss. St in 2012

To lazy to check all of Fulmers, but I think that would be 10-8

 

[boxedlunch]

Data is likely skewed by the competition teams usually take byes before. You don't take byes before you play Directional-State, you do it before big games.

The winning percentage of opponents was included, if you had read it. Also, it was only major conference teams.

 

[boxedlunch]

Nebraska needs to schedule Northwestern after Northwestern has a bye week.

Always play a team coached by a Holtz after a BYE week.

Nebraska gave Fitzgerald one of his losses after a bye. For the record, the only "Holtz" Nebraska has played after a bye, they beat.

 

[boxedlunch]

Tennessee (9-8-0)--0.52941

Phillip Fulmer (9-5-0)--0.64286

Kiffin lost to Alabama (Mt. Cody) in 2009
Dooley lost to Alabama in 2010
Dooley beat Buffalo in 2011
Dooley lost to Miss. St in 2012

To lazy to check all of Fulmers, but I think that would be 10-8

If you read the criteria, only conference games were counted for major conference teams. Plus, if the opponent came of a bye, it didn't count.

Fulmer was 9-5 for Tennessee, Kiffin 0-1, Dooley 0-2.