Colts vs Bengals

[bengaldoug]

Then he'll go off for 200 yards and three scores.....we are in trouble....

 

[DanBengalfan]

he gets 80 yards 3 weeks ago and people think hes a god.

I don't get it, the colts are in deep shit.

 

[Cincyfan78]

The last 5 games, Indy has faced the following:

Texans - 27th in rushing defense - rushed for 69 yards
STL - 15th in rushing defense - 18 yards
Tenn - 17th in rushing defense - 137 yards
Arizona - 4th in rushing defense - 80 yards
Tenn - 17th in rushing defense - 104 yards

Their only real, true, test against a top 10 rushing defense (cincinnati is 8th) was against Arizona, and that is skewed because Arizona jumped out to such a large lead that the defense was going 100% pass defense. In fact, in several of those games, Indy fell behind by 10 points or more, and had under 20 rushes as a team. The YPC is good because defenses were not focused on stopping the run as much as the pass to prevent Indy from mounting a comeback.

 

[DanBengalfan]

he's referring to my FF jinx, but that's ok. the colts are in trouble, only Andy Dalton can save them now.

 

[Be Weary of Query]

The last 5 games, Indy has faced the following:

Texans - 27th in rushing defense - rushed for 69 yards
STL - 15th in rushing defense - 18 yards
Tenn - 17th in rushing defense - 137 yards
Arizona - 4th in rushing defense - 80 yards
Tenn - 17th in rushing defense - 104 yards

Their only real, true, test against a top 10 rushing defense (cincinnati is 8th) was against Arizona, and that is skewed because Arizona jumped out to such a large lead that the defense was going 100% pass defense. In fact, in several of those games, Indy fell behind by 10 points or more, and had under 20 rushes as a team. The YPC is good because defenses were not focused on stopping the run as much as the pass to prevent Indy from mounting a comeback.

It's further skewed in that Luck scrambles for a chunk of those total rushing yards.

0 yards vs. Texans
4 carries for 17 yards vs. Rams
9 carries for 31 yards vs. Titans
2 carries for 31 yards vs. Cardinals
5 carries for 42 yards vs. Titans

 

[futballiscool]

You guys are talking about a five game sample size. When you get down by 3 or 4 scores early in a game it "could" inflate YPC, but it definatley hurts the overall rushing yards.

I agree that Luck's ability to run the ball gives a slight boost to their overall rushing numbers. But having a QB with the size and althetic ability of a LBer legitimatley does help to pick up yards in the elements.

Anyway, they have 4 more rushing TDs and over a half yard more carry than the Bengals. It's a huge reach to point out that aspect of their team as a liability

 

[Cincyfan78]

You guys are talking about a five game sample size. When you get down by 3 or 4 scores early in a game it "could" inflate YPC, but it definatley hurts the overall rushing yards.

I agree that Luck's ability to run the ball gives a slight boost to their overall rushing numbers. But having a QB with the size and althetic ability of a LBer legitimatley does help to pick up yards in the elements.

Anyway, they have 4 more rushing TDs and over a half yard more carry than the Bengals. It's a huge reach to point out that aspect of their team as a liability

A couple of reasons why the last 5 games:

The Brown argument. He's seen his most extensive action the past 5 weeks.

The Wayne factor. Wayne has been injured the past 5 games, and that in turn affects everything they do on offense.

The rushing defenses they've faced have been average to below average. No true gauge on the ARZ game because they were down so far so fast due to special teams, that there's no way to know how they would have faired.

They have less yards than the Bengals do in rushing, but a better YPC. One of the reasons for a better overall YPC is the fact, as mentioned before, that Indy has fallen behind by several scores increasing their YPC average, though overall they have less yards and less attempts. Defenses with a lead of 10+ are focusing on passing, and not stopping the run.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Their running game will be a threat if they commit to letting Boom carry the rock, he'll lay that shit on the line.

 

[Be Weary of Query]

Even in their wins, they weren't amassing a ton of yards...from the running backs.

Week 1 - Vick Ballard - 13 carries for 63 yards 4.8ypc

Week 3 - Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries for 95 yards 5ypc
Trent Richardson - 13 carries for 35 yards 2.7ypc

Week 4 - Donald Brown - 3 carries for 65 yards 21.7ypc (50 on one carry)
Trent Richardson - 20 carries for 60 yards 3.0ypc

Week 5 - Trent Richardson - 18 carries for 56 yards 3.1ypc
Donald Brown - 6 carries for 37 yards 6.2ypc

Week 7 - Trent Richardson - 14 carries for 37 yards 2.6ypc
Heyward-Bey - 1 carry for 30 yards

Week 9 - Donald Brown - 6 carries for 49 yards 8.2ypc
Trent Richardson - 8 carries for 20 yards 2.5ypc

Week 11 - Donald Brown - 14 carries for 80 yards 5.7ypc
Andrew Luck - 9 carries for 31 yards 3.4ypc

Week 13 - Donald Brown - 14 carries for 54 yards 3.9ypc
Andrew Luck - 5 carries for 42 yards 8.4ypc

Also, their best production came early in the season from guys that are on IR. Their offensive line is also struggling in run blocking (to be kind).

I think the team's YPC stat is also slanted in that the Bengals are more apt with their personnel and scheme to "grind out" the clock in the waning moments of wins. Bengals have attempted 58 more carries on the year.

The Colts also have five players with at least one 20+ yard carry on the year (long of 50). The Bengals have three players (long of 35).

 

[kramer1]

The Colts suck. Easy win.

 

[futballiscool]

Even in their wins, they weren't amassing a ton of yards...from the running backs.

Week 1 - Vick Ballard - 13 carries for 63 yards 4.8ypc

Week 3 - Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries for 95 yards 5ypc
Trent Richardson - 13 carries for 35 yards 2.7ypc

Week 4 - Donald Brown - 3 carries for 65 yards 21.7ypc (50 on one carry)
Trent Richardson - 20 carries for 60 yards 3.0ypc

Week 5 - Trent Richardson - 18 carries for 56 yards 3.1ypc
Donald Brown - 6 carries for 37 yards 6.2ypc

Week 7 - Trent Richardson - 14 carries for 37 yards 2.6ypc
Heyward-Bey - 1 carry for 30 yards

Week 9 - Donald Brown - 6 carries for 49 yards 8.2ypc
Trent Richardson - 8 carries for 20 yards 2.5ypc

Week 11 - Donald Brown - 14 carries for 80 yards 5.7ypc
Andrew Luck - 9 carries for 31 yards 3.4ypc

Week 13 - Donald Brown - 14 carries for 54 yards 3.9ypc
Andrew Luck - 5 carries for 42 yards 8.4ypc

Also, their best production came early in the season from guys that are on IR. Their offensive line is also struggling in run blocking (to be kind).

I think the team's YPC stat is also slanted in that the Bengals are more apt with their personnel and scheme to "grind out" the clock in the waning moments of wins. Bengals have attempted 58 more carries on the year.

The Colts also have five players with at least one 20+ yard carry on the year (long of 50). The Bengals have three players (long of 35).

From my first post in the thread:

"I'm not certain if the Colts can't run the ball as a team or if the issue has been Trent Richardson"

I don't see how the stats in your post can be seen as anything other than reinforcement for my initial point.

It's not a dominant running game. They're not a juggernaut. Is it quality, generally efficent rushing team? Yeah, I think so.

I understand microanalyzing a particular game and saying it's misleading because of a single fluke run, or because they were facing a prevent defense, etc..

but once a team is 300 carries into the year I don't see how 4.4 ypc can be dismissed as a body of work.

The Bengals matchup fine with them. The defense is solid against the run and has one of the best front 7s in leauge. If they stop the Colts on the ground it'll be due to a strong defensive game as opposed facing weak opposition.

 

[DanBengalfan]

they are 20th in the run, that's lower half.

it can't all be blamed on Trent Richardson, maybe he got paid and got soft like CJ2K, but good grief, he can't be THAT soft.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Averaging just one big 30-40 yard run a game will do wonders for your YPC. Easier to accomplish that when defenses are not keying on run.

But, so noted that once you get to 300 carries...4.4 is good. I, personally, think that the number is inflated by several of the statistics noted (not good rush defense, falling behind early giving way to less attempts, but still getting 1 solid run in, etc).

Bengals do a great job of stopping the run with their 4 DL and 1 LB usually keying on the run as well. Another reason why the secondary has been solid, with nearly 6 guys in coverage on most plays. The strength in Rey M and the DL stopping the run allows for guys like Burfict to clean up, and the rest of the secondary to make life hard on QB's. They've done a great job of limiting YAC in nearly every game they've played.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Averaging just one big 30-40 yard run a game will do wonders for your YPC. Easier to accomplish that when defenses are not keying on run.

But, so noted that once you get to 300 carries...4.4 is good. I, personally, think that the number is inflated by several of the statistics noted (not good rush defense, falling behind early giving way to less attempts, but still getting 1 solid run in, etc).

Bengals do a great job of stopping the run with their 4 DL and 1 LB usually keying on the run as well. Another reason why the secondary has been solid, with nearly 6 guys in coverage on most plays. The strength in Rey M and the DL stopping the run allows for guys like Burfict to clean up, and the rest of the secondary to make life hard on QB's. They've done a great job of limiting YAC in nearly every game they've played.

Doesn't hurt when you can line up for an all out blitz, and drop several guys into coverage, including Michael Johnson who ran step for step with a slot WR 40 yards down field. I don't remember who we were playing, and what slot guy it was, just remember the play. Thought that was pretty amazing to see a 6'7" 275 pound guy run step for step with a slot WR that runs a 4.4.