Coffee Talk V: The Final Battle

[forty_three]

This is crazy.

There's gonna be another huge burst bubble.

Last Wednesday, me and the missus took a road trip. As we were leaving, we noticed a house in our neighborhood had a new for sale sign on it. We came back Friday and the sign had a sold marker on it.

I looked it up, and it sold in one day. Someone else in the hood said it was for 50k above the initial asking price.

I'd sell my house in a minute right now if I didn't have to then buy another one somewhere. It's getting close to double what we paid 13 years ago.

 

[forty_three]

Atlanta school replacing KKK leader’s name with Hank Aaron’s

ATLANTA (AP) — An Atlanta high school that was named after a Ku Klux Klan leader will strip the name and instead honor the late baseball Hall of Famer Hank Aaron. The Atlanta Board of Education voted unanimously Monday to...

www.seattletimes.com

 

[puckhead]

There's gonna be another huge burst bubble.

Last Wednesday, me and the missus took a road trip. As we were leaving, we noticed a house in our neighborhood had a new for sale sign on it. We came back Friday and the sign had a sold marker on it.

I looked it up, and it sold in one day. Someone else in the hood said it was for 50k above the initial asking price.

I'd sell my house in a minute right now if I didn't have to then buy another one somewhere. It's getting close to double what we paid 13 years ago.

around here anyway (our leverage rules are a bit tighter than yours last time i checked), the only thing that will put it into reverse is pretty big interest rate hikes.
for whatever reason, this is a destination internationally to park money. People have been calling for a pop since about 1987.

CSB time: mid 90's around the time i bought my first apartment (800sf in east vancouver, we had to petition the city to remove a payphone from outside the building, as the hookers and drug dealers were using it to answer their pages).
bought it for about $140k, my buddy bought a 4 storey house on 1/4 acre in South Bend Indiana at the same time. my former property (i should have kept it) assesses for about 600k now, i don't think his would have cracked 200k.
at that time, a bond trader i worked with thought we were in a bubble, and sold her apartment hoping to buy it back cheaper in a couple of years. she was never able to bet back into the market, has been renting ever since.

it does mean young people cant afford to get into the market with the bank of mon and dad. $600k for a shitty apartment, means you need to save 60-100k for down payment. that's a tall ask.

in the financial meltdown of 2008, our values dropped maybe 10-15%. was back up within 18 months

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

around here anyway (our leverage rules are a bit tighter than yours last time i checked), the only thing that will put it into reverse is pretty big interest rate hikes.
for whatever reason, this is a destination internationally to park money. People have been calling for a pop since about 1987.

CSB time: mid 90's around the time i bought my first apartment (800sf in east vancouver, we had to petition the city to remove a payphone from outside the building, as the hookers and drug dealers were using it to answer their pages).
bought it for about $140k, my buddy bought a 4 storey house on 1/4 acre in South Bend Indiana at the same time. my former property (i should have kept it) assesses for about 600k now, i don't think his would have cracked 200k.
at that time, a bond trader i worked with thought we were in a bubble, and sold her apartment hoping to buy it back cheaper in a couple of years. she was never able to bet back into the market, has been renting ever since.

it does mean young people cant afford to get into the market with the bank of mon and dad. $600k for a shitty apartment, means you need to save 60-100k for down payment. that's a tall ask.

in the financial meltdown of 2008, our values dropped maybe 10-15%. was back up within 18 months

I don't think they even dropped in Toronto in 2008. If they did, it was very brief and not by very much.

The difference between Canadian and US markets is pretty simple - you can set yourself up for a pretty good, fulfilling life basically anywhere in the US. Any mid-size to major city has basically everything you need, from jobs to nice neighbourhoods to shit to keep you busy. Most of those metros still have lots of land to develop around them.

Canada literally has Toronto and Vancouver and both are at this point basically out of room to grow (for very different reasons - by geography in Vancouver, by government regulations in Toronto). The single-family homes in those regions that already exist are basically all that will ever exist at this point so of course they cost a fortune and are going to continue to do so.

Worse, if the Liberals do ever actually cap-gain home sale profit all that's going to do is drive the cost up even more.

 

[puckhead]

Canada literally has Toronto and Vancouver and both are at this point basically out of room to grow (for very different reasons - by geography in Vancouver, by government regulations in Toronto). The single-family homes in those regions that already exist are basically all that will ever exist at this point so of course they cost a fortune and are going to continue to do so.

that's a good point as well.

a friend of mine (big time developer) told me: there are about 10,000 single family homes on the West Side. There will never be more than 10,000 single family homes there. if you look at all of the assembly sales on Oak, Granville, W Boulevard, etc. They are all taking those homes off of the market for condos. There are no more 60 foot lots that will ever be created in this part of town. So if you want a yard...... supply is limited and always decreasing.

 

[forty_three]

Down here, part of the reason for the boom is a year of working from home has shown people that they don't need to live in NorCal or NYC and living in a 2.6m dollar fridge carton to make good money/have a good job. Smaller cities with good housing markets are all growing.

There's tons of room to expand here, but it's getting filled with McMansions or high density condo developments.

 

[thedddd]

Spicey went after the wrong guy.

 

[thedddd]

I guess Hell froze over, yep climate change.

 

[dare2be]

I guess Hell froze over, yep climate change.

Their entire base is just very slow on the uptake.

 

[thedddd]

And then you have these two:

 

[forty_three]

I guess Hell froze over, yep climate change.

He must have figured out that there is either money or oiled up hunks in it.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

that's a good point as well.

a friend of mine (big time developer) told me: there are about 10,000 single family homes on the West Side. There will never be more than 10,000 single family homes there. if you look at all of the assembly sales on Oak, Granville, W Boulevard, etc. They are all taking those homes off of the market for condos. There are no more 60 foot lots that will ever be created in this part of town. So if you want a yard...... supply is limited and always decreasing.

There basically isn’t any zoning or planning against the land assemblies here eh? Seems like no matter where these are, on main streets or deep in neighbourhoods, if you can assemble some land it’s basically get the shovels ready for a mid-rise.

I can understand it on the Cambie Corridor or King Edward but seeing a lot of new jobs pop up on side streets in Burquitlam and parts of New West. The detached housing stock is basically dwindling anywhere west of Langley.

Down here, part of the reason for the boom is a year of working from home has shown people that they don't need to live in NorCal or NYC and living in a 2.6m dollar fridge carton to make good money/have a good job. Smaller cities with good housing markets are all growing.

There's tons of room to expand here, but it's getting filled with McMansions or high density condo developments.

that’s happening in Canada too, which is why housing in Halifax has gone from $350k to $500k during the pandemic. Same shit has happened in a lot of the smaller Ontario metros (London, Kitchener, Niagara Region are all way up). Dash will tell you about Vancouver Island. It’s definitely having a National effect but it’s still minor compared to the pressures in those two metros.

Also, I exclude Montreal because while there has been some appreciation there and there is a good economy in Quebec it’s still an ass backwards language-nationalist society that’s best to just steer clear of.

 

[forty_three]

Proud Boy charged with pepper spraying police during Capitol riot contracts Covid in jail

Christopher Worrell’s diagnosis was revealed during an appeal of a federal judge’s decision to reject his bid for release.

www.politico.com

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Spicey went after the wrong guy.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

There basically isn’t any zoning or planning against the land assemblies here eh? Seems like no matter where these are, on main streets or deep in neighbourhoods, if you can assemble some land it’s basically get the shovels ready for a mid-rise.

I can understand it on the Cambie Corridor or King Edward but seeing a lot of new jobs pop up on side streets in Burquitlam and parts of New West. The detached housing stock is basically dwindling anywhere west of Langley.



that’s happening in Canada too, which is why housing in Halifax has gone from $350k to $500k during the pandemic. Same shit has happened in a lot of the smaller Ontario metros (London, Kitchener, Niagara Region are all way up). Dash will tell you about Vancouver Island. It’s definitely having a National effect but it’s still minor compared to the pressures in those two metros.

Also, I exclude Montreal because while there has been some appreciation there and there is a good economy in Quebec it’s still an ass backwards language-nationalist society that’s best to just steer clear of.

Oh yeah, Montréal is real language-nationalist place. LOL.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Oh yeah, Montréal is real language-nationalist place. LOL.

English-speakers still have a hard time there and the off-island suburbs are basically entirely Francophone so it doesn't do much for people looking to escape the urban life willing to relocate to a different region.

Anglo relocation from Montreal is also a big reason why Ottawa's been booming the past five years, especially with Shopify drawing a lot of IT people out of Montreal.

 

[Comeds]

When I was in Montreal years ago I got beat up just for speaking English. At least I assume that was the reason, I cannot think of any other. I wasn't hurt bad but my Bruins leather jacket was ripped so that kind of sucked.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

English-speakers still have a hard time there and the off-island suburbs are basically entirely Francophone so it doesn't do much for people looking to escape the urban life willing to relocate to a different region.

Anglo relocation from Montreal is also a big reason why Ottawa's been booming the past five years, especially with Shopify drawing a lot of IT people out of Montreal.

Not accurate at all. English speakers are fine. The West Island is rife with English speaking enclaves as is the south shore.

And English speakers do fine in 80% of the neighbourhoods. As a very rusty French speaker (at the time) I had no issues in Montreal while living there for 2 years. I hardly used my French when I was there. It's the most bilingual city in Canada and probably North America. So while the provincial government are often comprised of fuckwits, the city is far from a language exclusive city. Nor is it nationalist in the least. Calling them such makes about as much sense as calling Albertans liberal because they are in Trudeau led Canada.

 

[puckhead]

"when can we all get back to normal", they said

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Not accurate at all. English speakers are fine. The West Island is rife with English speaking enclaves as is the south shore.

And English speakers do fine in 80% of the neighbourhoods. As a very rusty French speaker (at the time) I had no issues in Montreal while living there for 2 years. I hardly used my French when I was there. It's the most bilingual city in Canada and probably North America. So while the provincial government are often comprised of fuckwits, the city is far from a language exclusive city. Nor is it nationalist in the least. Calling them such makes about as much sense as calling Albertans liberal because they are in Trudeau led Canada.

I've spent enough time in Montreal in my life to say at the very least I've often felt uncomfortable with my lack of French. Glad you got by there without it but not my experience.

I just did a cursory search of the last census and the only South Shore communities I could find with a home English rate of 10% or higher was Candiac (19%) and Brossard (12%). Still seems like if you're looking for an Anglo suburban community you'd at the very least be limited.