Coffee Talk: I Should Have Had a V-8

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Already cut a deal with Mexico to scrap the tariffs and Mexico got some words out of him at least about guns coming in.

Assuming we get the same with Trudeau unless Mexico’s rookie President is better at this than our long tenured PM.

 

[dash]

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Breaks down Trump's negotiating style pretty well.

The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president,by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.
Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece...
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.
Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."
Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.
There isn't another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.
From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”
— David Honig

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Also worth noting, if I'm not mistaken, that the current trade agreement (which Trump broke) between CAN-USA was negotiated between Trudeau and Trump in Shitler's first term in office. By moaning about trade deficits and being taken advantage of by Canada, is Troompa Loompa admitting that he got absolutely rinsed by Trudeau and company? Or is it more BS? Or both?

 

[dash]

Also worth noting, if I'm not mistaken, that the current trade agreement (which Trump broke) between CAN-USA was negotiated between Trudeau and Trump in Shitler's first term in office. By moaning about trade deficits and being taken advantage of by Canada, is Troompa Loompa admitting that he got absolutely rinsed by Trudeau and company? Or is it more BS? Or both?

This is what I don't understand, are there no penalties for violating the USMCA deal? And how does this impact the Canucks cap situation?

 

[forty_three]

Breaks down Trump's negotiating style pretty well.

The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president,by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.
Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece...
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.
Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."
Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.
There isn't another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.
From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”
— David Honig

Great find, Kenny. Thank you for sharing that.

 

[mattola]

Breaks down Trump's negotiating style pretty well.

China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours.
— David Honig

then its mission accomplished on this for Trumpinski

 

[mooger_35]

This is what I don't understand, are there no penalties for violating the USMCA deal? And how does this impact the Canucks cap situation?

We lose 2 first rounders and get a $5 million cap penalty

 

[forty_three]

Interestingly, I went looking for a link for what Kenny Posted up there. The first Google result was for a facebook post, but it's been memory holed already.

Only other link is on Threads, so it will not last long there.

 

[dash]

Interestingly, I went looking for a link for what Kenny Posted up there. The first Google result was for a facebook post, but it's been memory holed already.

Only other link is on Threads, so it will not last long there.

Trump's minions are very busy scrubbing the internet.

 

[mattola]

 

[dash]

View attachment 387624

He'll spin this to paint himself as a master negotiator and the MAGApotamians will lap it up.

 

[forty_three]

He'll spin this to paint himself as a master negotiator and the MAGApotamians will lap it up.

He got the same result in 2019, with no noticeable reduction in illegal smuggling.

Biden did the same in 2021 with a simple request and also did not reduce the flow of drugs. Because they ignored US Citizens who likely smuggle the majority of stuff that actually travels above ground.

None of these troops look at the underground tunnels because it's very lucrative not to.


He threatened tariffs and cratered the stock market in order to have a woman from Mexico make him state publicly that our guns going that way is a major problem.

C'mon Justin. Give a few hundred teenagers stationed at the border and get him to not only admit that guns and drugs from the US are a big problem, but the NHL Salary Cap is a joke.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

He got the same result in 2019, with no noticeable reduction in illegal smuggling.

Biden did the same in 2021 with a simple request and also did not reduce the flow of drugs. Because they ignored US Citizens who likely smuggle the majority of stuff that actually travels above ground.

None of these troops look at the underground tunnels because it's very lucrative not to.


He threatened tariffs and cratered the stock market in order to have a woman from Mexico make him state publicly that our guns going that way is a major problem.

C'mon Justin. Give a few hundred teenagers stationed at the border and get him to not only admit that guns and drugs from the US are a big problem, but the NHL Salary Cap is a joke.

Problem for Justin is if he promises to do something similar he needs to re-open parliament to get the money for it. If he re-opens parliament his gov’t can be defeated and an election called before his replacement Liberal leader is named.

Trump and Trudeau spoke earlier today and are supposed to speak again this afternoon. I wonder if Justin is using the time to beg the opposition parties to allow him to pass whatever legislation he needs to make Trump happy without triggering an election.

 

[forty_three]

Problem for Justin is if he promises to do something similar he needs to re-open parliament to get the money for it. If he re-opens parliament his gov’t can be defeated and an election called before his replacement Liberal leader is named.

Trump and Trudeau spoke earlier today and are supposed to speak again this afternoon. I wonder if Justin is using the time to beg the opposition parties to allow him to pass whatever legislation he needs to make Trump happy without triggering an election.

I mean, he can say he's going to and not do it. Not like Trump would know. He'll be too busy pigeon strutting around the chess board.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I mean, he can say he's going to and not do it. Not like Trump would know. He'll be too busy pigeon strutting around the chess board.

Honestly, I think he has too much of a hard on for Trudeau at this point to let it go.

 

[thedddd]

Honestly, I think he has too much of a hard on for Trudeau at this point to let it go.

And that Melania has the hots for Justin.

 

[thedddd]

This is why he caved. He let it go on long enough for his direct line of folks to short sell stocks and buy back at a lower cost.

 

[dash]

This is why he caved. He let it go on long enough for his direct line of folks to short sell stocks and buy back at a lower cost.

View attachment 387634

Follow the money.

 

[thedddd]

Follow the money.

Sadly we know Nancy Pelosi is in on this scheme and every last one of them.