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People seemed to like my stat comparison of Notre Dame-Clemson in the Cotton Bowl Thread, so I felt I would do the same for Clemson-Bama. I'd definitely love peoples' input on this. These statistics do not include statistics from today.
Clemson:
Averages 45.5 points (49.6 since Lawrence)
Allows 12.75 points
#5 Scoring Offense (#2 since Lawrence)
#5 Total Offense (#3 since Lawrence)
#28 Passing Offense (#8 since Lawrence - which is probably most significant since Bryant was run first)
#43 Passing Efficiency (unsure since Lawrence)
#9 Rushing Offense
#1 in yards per carry (6.75)
#11 sacks allowed
#1 Scoring Defense
#4 Total Defense
#18 Passing Defense
#3 Sacks
#1 Rushing Defense
#1 in defensive yards per carry (2.4)
#30 Penalties per game
talent on roster (9 5 stars, 37 4 stars)
Bama:
Averages 47.9 points per game
Allows 14.8 points per game
#2 Scoring Offense
#7 Total Offense (a note should be paid that Bama has played 5 top 50 defenses this year - Clemson only 3)
#7 Passing Offense
#2 Passing Efficiency
#36 Rushing Offense
#18 in yards per carry (5.34)
#9 Sacks allowed
#3 Scoring Defense
#10 Total Defense
#13 Passing Defense
#6 Sacks
#18 Rushing Defense
#13 in defensive yards per carry (3.36)
#46 Penalties per game
talent on roster (12 5 stars, 51 4 stars)
This should be a fascinating game. These are definitely two of the most well-rounded teams in the country with both teams as top 5 scoring offenses and top 5 scoring defenses. Both teams have beaten their opponents by an average of 33 points per game this season. Neither team has a major weakness.
Alabama's fantastic offense, the best since Saban took over, runs through Tua, who averages 262 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns a game and only .3 interceptions. He has had 8 games with more than 250 yards passing. They also have the ability to switch in Jalen Hurts, who is a solid quarterback, but much more of a running threat. In addition, Alabama has 4 running backs that have over 60 carries on the season. The two Harrises average 6.34 yards per carry, and have accounted for 1450 yards and 11 touchdowns. Bama also has Josh Jacobs in relief as they get closer to the red zone, who has 14 touchdowns on the season. On the receiving end, Tua does a good job spreading the ball around, with 5 players with more than 200 receiving yards on the season. However, he does seem to have a strong connection with Jerry Jeudy in open space, but often looks to Henry Ruggs near the goal line. They have been questionable on extra points, with their two place kickers averaging 90% of extra points.
Clemson's offense is built similarly, though with greater emphasis on scoring through the running backs. As a starter, Lawrence averages 249 yards per game with 2 touchdowns and .2 interceptions. Clemson also has 4 running backs with more than 60 carries on the season. Travis Etienne has 1463 yards with 21 touchdowns and averages 8.3 yards per carry. Lyn-J Dixon and Adam Choice are both very explosive running backs, and combine for an additional 1042 yards and 12 touchdowns with 8.4 yards per carry. Tavien Feaster rounds out the group, and is more of a power back averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Clemson of course has the "fridge package" for short yardage situations, though it's unclear if it's still an option in the absence of Dexter Lawrence. As far as receiving, Lawrence also has 5 targets with more than 200 receiving yards on the season. He doesn't have a clear favorite target, though Tee Higgins has been targeted 5 more times than the #2 receiver, and has 10 of the teams touchdowns.
In short, on paper, this looks like it could be a close game between two great football teams. I look for Bama to stack the box to try to rattle freshman Lawrence and slow down Clemson's running game. They have a solid secondary, and a large part of the formula for Clemson's success will be the offensive line's ability to keep the pressure off Lawrence and the matchup between Clemson's talented receivers and Bama's corners. On the other side of the ball, it's unlikely Bama will have a ton of luck running the ball. However, Tua is an extremely accurate deep passer, which is the kind of quarterback that can possibly take advantage of Clemson's secondary, which has appeared vulnerable at different times this year. If both teams play smart, this could potentially be another classic game. However, if Clemson's secondary does not come ready to play, or makes mental errors, then this could also turn into a game where the outcome is never in doubt. I'm not about to make a prediction for this game.
Clemson:
Averages 45.5 points (49.6 since Lawrence)
Allows 12.75 points
#5 Scoring Offense (#2 since Lawrence)
#5 Total Offense (#3 since Lawrence)
#28 Passing Offense (#8 since Lawrence - which is probably most significant since Bryant was run first)
#43 Passing Efficiency (unsure since Lawrence)
#9 Rushing Offense
#1 in yards per carry (6.75)
#11 sacks allowed
#1 Scoring Defense
#4 Total Defense
#18 Passing Defense
#3 Sacks
#1 Rushing Defense
#1 in defensive yards per carry (2.4)
#30 Penalties per game
talent on roster (9 5 stars, 37 4 stars)
Bama:
Averages 47.9 points per game
Allows 14.8 points per game
#2 Scoring Offense
#7 Total Offense (a note should be paid that Bama has played 5 top 50 defenses this year - Clemson only 3)
#7 Passing Offense
#2 Passing Efficiency
#36 Rushing Offense
#18 in yards per carry (5.34)
#9 Sacks allowed
#3 Scoring Defense
#10 Total Defense
#13 Passing Defense
#6 Sacks
#18 Rushing Defense
#13 in defensive yards per carry (3.36)
#46 Penalties per game
talent on roster (12 5 stars, 51 4 stars)
This should be a fascinating game. These are definitely two of the most well-rounded teams in the country with both teams as top 5 scoring offenses and top 5 scoring defenses. Both teams have beaten their opponents by an average of 33 points per game this season. Neither team has a major weakness.
Alabama's fantastic offense, the best since Saban took over, runs through Tua, who averages 262 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns a game and only .3 interceptions. He has had 8 games with more than 250 yards passing. They also have the ability to switch in Jalen Hurts, who is a solid quarterback, but much more of a running threat. In addition, Alabama has 4 running backs that have over 60 carries on the season. The two Harrises average 6.34 yards per carry, and have accounted for 1450 yards and 11 touchdowns. Bama also has Josh Jacobs in relief as they get closer to the red zone, who has 14 touchdowns on the season. On the receiving end, Tua does a good job spreading the ball around, with 5 players with more than 200 receiving yards on the season. However, he does seem to have a strong connection with Jerry Jeudy in open space, but often looks to Henry Ruggs near the goal line. They have been questionable on extra points, with their two place kickers averaging 90% of extra points.
Clemson's offense is built similarly, though with greater emphasis on scoring through the running backs. As a starter, Lawrence averages 249 yards per game with 2 touchdowns and .2 interceptions. Clemson also has 4 running backs with more than 60 carries on the season. Travis Etienne has 1463 yards with 21 touchdowns and averages 8.3 yards per carry. Lyn-J Dixon and Adam Choice are both very explosive running backs, and combine for an additional 1042 yards and 12 touchdowns with 8.4 yards per carry. Tavien Feaster rounds out the group, and is more of a power back averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Clemson of course has the "fridge package" for short yardage situations, though it's unclear if it's still an option in the absence of Dexter Lawrence. As far as receiving, Lawrence also has 5 targets with more than 200 receiving yards on the season. He doesn't have a clear favorite target, though Tee Higgins has been targeted 5 more times than the #2 receiver, and has 10 of the teams touchdowns.
In short, on paper, this looks like it could be a close game between two great football teams. I look for Bama to stack the box to try to rattle freshman Lawrence and slow down Clemson's running game. They have a solid secondary, and a large part of the formula for Clemson's success will be the offensive line's ability to keep the pressure off Lawrence and the matchup between Clemson's talented receivers and Bama's corners. On the other side of the ball, it's unlikely Bama will have a ton of luck running the ball. However, Tua is an extremely accurate deep passer, which is the kind of quarterback that can possibly take advantage of Clemson's secondary, which has appeared vulnerable at different times this year. If both teams play smart, this could potentially be another classic game. However, if Clemson's secondary does not come ready to play, or makes mental errors, then this could also turn into a game where the outcome is never in doubt. I'm not about to make a prediction for this game.
