MLB Daily Thread: Chappee's Jays are champs, 3-way tie for 2nd AL WC, other stuff happened

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't think they match up well with the Dodgers at all.

Not many teams match up well against a 1-2 punch of two Cy Young front runners. Then again, we can't discount crapshootidity. . .

 

[Bolts]

They could win the World Series. Any team in the playoffs could.

Of the playoff bound teams, where would you seed the Mets?

1. Toronto: Pitching much better when they got Price and Stroman in a trade/healthy to go with elite offense. Having a rookie closer on the big stage could lead to problems, but he's been great so far.
2. St Louis: Knows how to win even when they get a ton of injuries, great pitching. I don't trust their offense, although Holiday and Adams being healthy should make it better.
3. Cubs: Have the best pitcher since the ASB, could pull a 2014 MadBum and carry the Cubbies to a WS.
4. Rangers: Llike the Jays, pitching has been better since their trade deadline addition and have a strong offense. I don't really trust anyone in that rotation besides Hamels, even if Yovani has a 3.42 ERA.
5. Royals: Great bullpen and defense to go with good offense. The starting rotation is a question mark though, even the ace they traded for.
6. Pirates: Good offense, good pitching. I could see Cole having a 2014 MadBum type of run as well.
7. Mets: Strong starting pitching and improved offense. I'd say the BP outside of Famila is the weakness, but I don't really follow the Mets enough to know how good or bad they've been lately.
8. Dodgers: The best 1-2 in baseball, but the rotation after that is a problem and they can't start CK and Greinke for 5 games or 7 games. I wouldn't trust their BP either.
9. Yankees: Good offense and great back end of the BP. Another team where the SP could be a problem.
10. TBD
Could be off about some of the stuff for these teams since I don't regularly watch any of them, but from what I've seen especially lately that's how I'd rank(or seed) them. Mets might not be a top 5 team in the postseason, but I don't think of them as the weakest.

 

[Villain]

Everyone likes to handicap the Dodgers by their bullpen.

Major League Team Stats » 2015 » Relievers » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

They only have the best K-BB% and SIERA in MLB... 4th best FIP and worst BABIP. It's not the best bullpen in MLB but it's not the achilles heel everyone wants it to be.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

@Bolts , I find it interesting that you mention that Arietta or Cole could pull a Bumgarner type of postseason run, but contest that Kershaw and Greinke "can't start five or seven games."

I'm guessing you dislike the Dodgers.

If the Dodgers chose to push these two and they were up to it, they could conceivably start/pitch in 12 of a maximum of 19 games.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

1. Toronto: Pitching much better when they got Price and Stroman in a trade/healthy to go with elite offense. Having a rookie closer on the big stage could lead to problems, but he's been great so far.
2. St Louis: Knows how to win even when they get a ton of injuries, great pitching. I don't trust their offense, although Holiday and Adams being healthy should make it better.
3. Cubs: Have the best pitcher since the ASB, could pull a 2014 MadBum and carry the Cubbies to a WS.
4. Rangers: Llike the Jays, pitching has been better since their trade deadline addition and have a strong offense. I don't really trust anyone in that rotation besides Hamels, even if Yovani has a 3.42 ERA.
5. Royals: Great bullpen and defense to go with good offense. The starting rotation is a question mark though, even the ace they traded for.
6. Pirates: Good offense, good pitching. I could see Cole having a 2014 MadBum type of run as well.
7. Mets: Strong starting pitching and improved offense. I'd say the BP outside of Famila is the weakness, but I don't really follow the Mets enough to know how good or bad they've been lately.
8. Dodgers: The best 1-2 in baseball, but the rotation after that is a problem and they can't start CK and Greinke for 5 games or 7 games. I wouldn't trust their BP either.
9. Yankees: Good offense and great back end of the BP. Another team where the SP could be a problem.
10. TBD
Could be off about some of the stuff for these teams since I don't regularly watch any of them, but from what I've seen especially lately that's how I'd rank(or seed) them. Mets might not be a top 5 team in the postseason, but I don't think of them as the weakest.

The Mets have managed to win 1 whole game more than the Dodgers who play in a significantly better division. I think saying the 2015 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Dodgers is fucking crazy.

Yankees with three less wins in a tougher division and overall tougher league. They shouldn't be below the Mets either.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

The Mets have managed to win 1 whole game more than the Dodgers who play in a significantly better division. I think saying the 2015 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Dodgers is fucking crazy.

Mets = 21-13 against the significantly better NL West,
Dodgers = 19-13 against the significantly worse NL East.

Thanks for playing.

 

[Bolts]

The Mets have managed to win 1 whole game more than the Dodgers who play in a significantly better division. I think saying the 2015 Mets are a better team than the 2015 Dodgers is fucking crazy.

Yankees with three less wins in a tougher division and overall tougher league. They shouldn't be below the Mets either.

This is my rankings for the teams right now, not over the course of 162 games. The Dodgers have been more consistent throughout 2015 than the Mets in a tougher division, as have the Yankees but I think the Mets are better today. The Blue Jays didn't have a great first half despite the big run differential, but they look like the best team in baseball right now imo so they're ahead of the team that has 100 wins.

 

[Bolts]

Mets = 21-13 against the significantly better NL West,
Dodgers = 19-13 against the significantly worse NL East.

Thanks for playing.

And the Mets were 7-6 vs the top 2 teams in the NLW.
Dodgers 8-5 vs the bottom 2 teams in the NLE.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This is my rankings for the teams right now, not over the course of 162 games.

Fair enough.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Mets = 21-13 against the significantly better NL West,
Dodgers = 19-13 against the significantly worse NL East.

Thanks for playing.

NL East overall W%: .460
NL West overall W%: .490

Thanks for playing, indeed. Thanks for making the game so damn easy.

 

[Tai Chi≈Surfing]

Yeeesh....hey, Bochy... get Huddy out of the game...FFS

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This is my rankings for the teams right now, not over the course of 162 games. The Dodgers have been more consistent throughout 2015 than the Mets in a tougher division, as have the Yankees but I think the Mets are better today. The Blue Jays didn't have a great first half despite the big run differential, but they look like the best team in baseball right now imo so they're ahead of the team that has 100 wins.

That all makes sense to me.

We're just ranking different things. I'm ranking what I think are the best teams in 2015, you're ranking what you think are the best teams headed into the playoffs.

 

[Tai Chi≈Surfing]

Ughhhhh

Affeldt gives up 2 runs after Hudson leaves.

3-0 LA mid 3rd....

Obviously the Dodgers are playing for the HFA, unlike the Mets......

 

[Bolts]

That all makes sense to me.

We're just ranking different things. I'm ranking what I think are the best teams in 2015, you're ranking what you think are the best teams headed into the playoffs.

I would have ranked the Dodgers ahead of them had it been for the entire season. I'm just looking at the teams currently constructed since most teams in the postseason have had big changes since August whether it be via trade, via getting players healthy, via losing players to injury, or a combination of the 3.

 

[Villain]

Why do you people keep talking about regular season W/L against different divisions or opponents like they matter? They don't matter. STAHP.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

NL East overall W%: .460
NL West overall W%: .490

Thanks for playing, indeed. Thanks for making the game so damn easy.

.030 is statistically significant in...what universe again?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

.030 is statistically significant in...what universe again?

What's that say about this:

Mets = 21-13 [.618] against the significantly better NL West,
Dodgers = 19-13 [.594] against the significantly worse NL East.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Why do you people keep talking about regular season W/L against different divisions or opponents like they matter? They don't matter. STAHP.

Maybe they don't matter to you, but they matter to me. . .

Seriously though, how do you suggest we compare divisions' relative strengths?

I agree that team vs team is somewhat useless because of the small sample sizes -- particularly so as a prediction tool for what will happen in the postseason, but that's not what we're trying to do. Team vs division is slightly less useless in this exercise because it's a slightly larger sample size, but still, I think you'd want to look at each teams record vs the other division to eliminate as much static as possible -- the record of all games NL West vs NL East, for example. Then there's divisions' overall records.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

What's that say about this:

It says you were way off when you tried to claim that the NL West was "significantly better" than the NL East, which was the whole reason I posted it in the first place.

Checkmate.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It says you were way off when you tried to claim that the NL West was "significantly better" than the NL East, which was the whole reason I posted it in the first place.

Checkmate.

So, a .030 win difference over an 800 game sample is insignificant, but a .024 win difference over a 31 game sample is significant?

And seriously, "checkmate?" Stop acting like a pigeon, Hu, you're better than that.