BREAKING: Frost is coming home

[iruletheskool]

Not at all.

Akron & Illinois

Troy beat LSU in 2017
Purdue is much improved.

Who do you see as sure wins?

Troy is a sure win. The dice will fall our way on at least one other game, I think 4 is our basement. expect to get closer to 6 tho

 

[Tomhusker]

There could be zero wins and the team could still show improvements over this past debacle.

 

[Red_Alert]

Troy is a sure win. The dice will fall our way on at least one other game, I think 4 is our basement. expect to get closer to 6 tho

Felt the same until after the bowl games and looking at UCF's first season under Frost.

I was hoping to see UCF had made vast improvements toward the end of the 2016 season, which I often use as a criteria in how I expect a team to be the following season. Not the case as they finished (0-3) and got thumped in their bowl by Arky St. 13-31.

Their 6 wins were over teams comparable to Akron and Illinois.

South Carolina St (FCS)
Florida International: (4-8)
East Carolina (3-9)
Connecticut (3-9)
Tulane (4-8)
Cincinnati (4-8)

Their 7 losses were to...

Michigan (10-3)
Maryland (6-7)
Temple (10-4)
Houston (9-4)
Tulsa (10-3)
South Florida (11-2)
Arkansas St (8-5)

 

[Red_Alert]

I guess you could say they have a chance against Colorado in Lincoln. However Colorado had 5 wins in 2017 which is still more than any of UCF's wins in 2016.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Troy is losing their starting QB, starting RB, 2 starting WR’s, starting LT, and 6 starters on Defense (4 of those being in their front 7).

Theirn Win over LSU will mean nothing in September of this year.

 

[Red_Alert]

There are not 6 of these on the schedule, so the path to bowl eligibility seems impossible in 2018. I'm ok with that though.

South Carolina St (FCS)
Florida International: (4-8)
East Carolina (3-9)
Connecticut (3-9)
Tulane (4-8)
Cincinnati (4-8)

 

[Red_Alert]

Troy is losing their starting QB, starting RB, 2 starting WR’s, starting LT, and 6 starters on Defense (4 of those being in their front 7).

Theirn Win over LSU will mean nothing in September of this year.

They'll still have their returning staff and system though, right?
Are they losing any coaching staff?

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

They'll still have their returning staff and system though, right?
Are they losing any coaching staff?

Not that I know of, but man that’s a lot of key players.

 

[Red_Alert]

Not that I know of, but man that’s a lot of key players.

Me thinks you spend too much energy looking at who Troy's losing and ignore that Nebraska will have a starting QB who will also be a 1st time starter, a completely new coaching staff, and new systems. Not to mention how badly the Husker O and D lines got shoved around in 2017.
Not sure what kind of strides can be made in strength and conditioning and 60 days (spring/fall) of teaching technique.

 

[HuskerNGA]

They'll still have their returning staff and system though, right?
Are they losing any coaching staff?

Troy does not 'reload'. There will be some fall off depending on the replacements. I would not expect another 11-2 season having to replace half of your starters. That's tough for any team.

 

[Red_Alert]

Nebraska's starting QB will have virtually no game experience unless it's O'Brien, even then it's extremely limited.

Troy's probable starter (Jr) will at least have game experience in their system.
NCAA Statistics

 

[Red_Alert]

Troy does not 'reload'. There will be some fall off depending on the replacements. I would not expect another 11-2 season having to replace half of your starters. That's tough for any team.

Yeah sure, but do you think they'll win more than 4 games?

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Me thinks you spend too much energy looking at who Troy's losing and ignore that Nebraska will have a starting QB who will also be a 1st time starter, a completely new coaching staff, and new systems. Not to mention how badly the Husker O and D lines got shoved around in 2017.
Not sure what kind of strides can be made in strength and conditioning and 60 days (spring/fall) of teaching technique.

Absolutely not ignoring that.

But me thinks ye aren’t giving our home field advantage enough weight. Fans haven’t been this excited in a couple decades. That place is gonna be rocking and Troy will have a lot of new faces out there in that environment.

Also, UCF actually attempted to get pressure on opposing QBs.....something that we could have attempted but just didn’t this past year. That’s going to make a difference.

I just see our basement more like Stool does. 4 losses is about as bad as it’s gonna get.

 

[Red_Alert]

Absolutely not ignoring that.

But me thinks ye aren’t giving our home field advantage enough weight. Fans haven’t been this excited in a couple decades. That place is gonna be rocking and Troy will have a lot of new faces out there in that environment.

Also, UCF actually attempted to get pressure on opposing QBs.....something that we could have attempted but just didn’t this past year. That’s going to make a difference.

I just see our basement more like Stool does. 4 losses is about as bad as it’s gonna get.

How did that 'home field advantage' work out against Northern Illinois?

 

[HuskerNGA]

Yeah sure, but do you think they'll win more than 4 games?

I would bet the over on a line of 4.5 games won. Then again I would have last year too lol. I think they have a good chance to win vs Akron, Colorado, Troy, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois which are all at home. Could easily see 4 or less wins as well.

 

[Red_Alert]

I would bet the over on a line of 4.5 games won. Then again I would have last year too lol. I think they have a good chance to win vs Akron, Colorado, Troy, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois which are all at home. Could easily see 4 or less wins as well.

I'd be happy to be wrong (to the plus side).

 

[HuskerPower52]

I just want them to compete and have confidence that no matter who they play they can and will win. W/Ls in the first season are not really a measuring stick with me. I am more interested in how they play and if they are buying in and moving in the right direction.

Aside from ohia state and Michigan I don't think that the talent level will be that much of a factor. I do think that we can out coach most of the conference.

 

[Red_Alert]

I just want them to compete and have confidence that no matter who they play they can and will win. W/Ls in the first season are not really a measuring stick with me. I am more interested in how they play and if they are buying in and moving in the right direction.

Aside from ohia state and Michigan I don't think that the talent level will be that much of a factor. I do think that we can out coach most of the conference.

To be fair, Frost had 6 more wins in his first season at UCF than they had the previous year. They were indeed losing to the (3-9) and (4-8) teams in 2015.

Add 6 wins to last season's 4 and there is a paper ceiling of 10 wins.

Heck, bopleeny managed from 5 wins (under HWSNBN) to 9 wins his first season with entirely new systems.

 

[Tomhusker]

So, no Natty ona platty?

Bummer....

 

[HuskerPower52]

If we win the Natty in year one dude tubular!