Bench vs starters

[MilkSpiller22]

Than I'm sorry..but we cant help ya! If you honestly think Vareen..or virtually any other RB normally take in the seventh..have nearly no value, no offense intended, but you need to rethink a few things, because they are incredibly valuable.

Sorry, when i get into arguments i often say things i dont mean... of course Vereen, and other 7th+ round RBs have value... just my point is that they dont have as much value as u think... Depth is great to have, but depth for the sake of depth is not the way to go... Platoon, or really good number 2 RBs are very inconsistant game to game... and do to that you never want them to be starters for your 2RB fantasy team... when your players go down, you almost always pick up a player and throw him to start... so vereen and them are only emergency start players(still very useful)... But when a player is only an emergency start player, i would not pick him instead of someone who will be my every day starter... There are many RBs to take chances on, like ones who are backups behind weak RBs, or injury prone RBs... But vereen is not one of those... would i take lamar miller(backup) before my number 3 WR?? definitely, he can become a stud...

Just wondering, 12 team league, starting only 2 RBs without any flex- who starts more often a RB drafted 7th to 10th round or free agents/late round picks... My bet would be the free agents/late round pick... i doubt a 7th-10th rounder really ever starts...


I hope that makes sense...

 

[wilwhite]

First, a note about missed games in 2012.
Top 24 QBs: 7 (collectively) - 0.3 games missed on average
Top 60 RBs: 126 missed games - 2.1 on average
Top 72 WRs: 72 - 1.0
Top 24 TEs: 22 - 0.9

My answer to the question: a starter who will average 8 pts a week (versus a later starter who will average 6) is a better pick than a bench player who will average 10 pts a week (versus a later bench player who will average 7).

But that's crazy! Why pass up a 160-pt guy for a 128-pt guy? Especially when the guy you'll get later is 48 pts worse, and you could replace the 128-pt guy with a guy only 32 pts worse?

Well... because that late starter (obviously a TE or WR3) will probably give you 15 games, so you'll get 30 pts on the season more than if you took the later replacement. The bench player is 3 points a game better than his replacement - but only for the games you use him. That's the key. He has to start for you 10 times to give you the same advantage, and he'll probably only start six times (two byes and four injury weeks).

I'll even buy the argument that a first bench RB might still be worth it, because maybe matchup opportunities can go with the six weeks you'll probably need him.

But a second bench RB or a first bench WR just wouldn't add up (or multiply up), unless you've got some really creaky RBs as your starters.

But as you can see from the draft Joe posted, I took 4 RBs before my TE. Why? Because I thought Pitta would overperform and figured I could get him late. What a Pitta.

It's also a league with no add/drops and no trades.

 

[Barilko]

Barilko was away from this lively discussion..out living my other great passion Music..actually Steve Earle rolled through Montreal friday night. im now here unwinding and enjoying todays banter
great work guys the boards are heating up!!!

ok i way in without any insight (you guys spit it all out already)

count me in on Vereen also...my bench rbs are itching to hit the field or i failed in the draft

Rudolph can always wait there are other 9th 10th round options out there

 

[tlance]

If you could guarantee me that the TE I could draft in round 7 will outscore the round 10 option by 2 points per game, I would draft him.

Thing is, I am very confident that I can find a TE who isn't even drafted who will score the same as (or more than) your 7th round guy. That is why I will take the RB unless I feel really good about the particular 7th round TEs potential.

 

[TREFF]

I'm glad I was on the road and had an excuse to bow outta that one...round and round...lol...

 

[tlance]

I just did an 8 team mock on ESPN for fun and had a thought.

The deeper your league, the more important depth becomes and the less important it is to have a stud at every starting position. In a 14 team league, Vereen is an RB2 and could be an every week starter on a good team. In the 8 team mock I just completed, he was my 5th RB. Since there were still high end back-ups like Ben Tate who went un-drafted, value for those "bench" players on your fantasy team really is minimal because of the quality of talent in the free agent pool.

In my 14 team league, in contrast, if the WR/RB ain't already on your bench, you don't want to have to start him. Since there really isn't much difference between TEs 10 and 18, there is no sense reaching for #10 in a deeper league. There are still playable options on the free agent list at the single-starter positions, even in deeper formats.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Platoon, or really good number 2 RBs are very inconsistant game to game...

but TE's like Rudolph are also very inconsistent.. and there's no potential injury that can excel them into consistency.

Vereen is pretty good to own with Ridley healthy...if Ridley were to get hurt, Vereen is a top-4 round pick now. You cannot say that about ANY TE you'll be drafting in the 7th.

Sure, there's a couple of RB's that we don't know right now who could be surprises in the late rounds...but they are much harder to find than back up RB's we know of.


As for my 4th round pick of Aaron Hernandez... well, before the nonsense, he was up there with Graham for my money...but that's down the drain... and how ironic is it that I drafted Rudolph in the 9th?? lol

It's also a league with no add/drops and no trades.

this also changes up strategy, as you have to look ahead for byes and such... in a real draft, you don't necessarily have to do so.

 

[JDM]

If Ridley gets hurt, Blount gets most of his touches and vereen's don't change much.

 

[tlance]

Is Blount an end of drsft sleeper after last night's showing?

Shanhan's RB duplicity is well documented, but quite honestly Belicek is worse. He will completely freeze out talented players from game plans if he doesn't like the match-up. He will also use 4 or 5 RBs who will all have big fantasy games at some point this season. This is why I get nervous drafting Ridley in round 2. Vereen seems less likely to have match-up issues than Ridley is, IMO, because they can use Vereen so many different ways.

 

[JDM]

I think all three guys get a lot of touches. Ridley gets primary RB snaps to start, with Blount spelling him for significant touches as well. Vereen plays a Darren Sproles type role (not Woodhead. Woodhead fucking blew).


Also, round 2 for Ridley is real high IMO. I think Blount matches or exceeds his production (he should be a slightly more reliable goal line option) and is available much later.

 

[tlance]

I think all three guys get a lot of touches. Ridley gets primary RB snaps to start, with Blount spelling him for significant touches as well. Vereen plays a Darren Sproles type role (not Woodhead. Woodhead fucking blew).


Also, round 2 for Ridley is real high IMO. I think Blount matches or exceeds his production (he should be a slightly more reliable goal line option) and is available much later.

with most of this. I don't think Blount will match Ridley, but he will do enough to frustrate Ridley owners.

 

[JDM]

I don't think he'll match him on a week by week basis, but I think he gets more touches in the red zone and enough touches throughout the year to come close.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

with most of this. I don't think Blount will match Ridley, but he will do enough to frustrate Ridley owners.

You should check the I know it's too early thread I just bumped. I looked some shit up and posted it there in April.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

i am sure most of u guys are done with this argument. But i just want to make my point one more time...
first off rudolph was just the example of who, i am sure you can get someone better in the 7th round than rudolph...

In a 2 back league, with no flex and 12 teams... I would almost never pick a 7th round bench player(RB) over a TE... Here are the reasons why:

1. In a 2 back league 7th round backs are the 29th or worse RB... and that is preseason ranked, which means if everyone stays healthy and nobody loses their jobs... the 29th or later back, is now no longer sleepers like Green bays Lacy, it is now platoons and #2s. and often that is their roles even if the #1 gets hurt. It is impossible to predict injuries, so to count on one is ill advised... The chances are that that player will not start any more than 2 games, since if there is an injury to your player you will likely pick up a player... only exception is if i own the #1 back and his backup is available and i will not be able to get him later... For example, if i drafted Ridley, and i had the option of vereen or TE, i would pick vereen...

2. Everyone says let me wait for sleepers: the chances are that in any good league, the sleepers you know, everyone knows... so you have to be careful that u dont wait too long for a TE, As will white has proven that a bench player needs to play at least 10 games to make it worth the sacrifice of getting a worse TE...

3. saying that you can trade the player... never draft someone with expectation to trade him... that plan almost never works, and even if it does what are you really ever going to get for him...

4. depth is great, but depth just for the sake of depth almost never works out as planned, if you are never going to use a player who cares if they are too good to not pick up... do not draft players who their upside is minimal... Vereen, his upside is a lowend RB2, so why take him?. any TE picked in the 7th round is a top 10 TE, there is more upside to a player that is always going to start than one that u never want to start...


now, dont get me wrong i too would rather have a player like vereen than any 7th round TE, if i was able to start Vereen or the player like him...

 

[TREFF]

If Ridley gets hurt, Blount gets most of his touches and vereen's don't change much.

5his is just plain crazy talk..and there aint no way around it

 

[Barilko]

1. In a 2 back league 7th round backs are the 29th or worse RB... and that is preseason ranked, which means if everyone stays healthy and nobody loses their jobs... the 29th or later back, is now no longer sleepers like Green bays Lacy, it is now platoons and #2s. and often that is their roles even if the #1 gets hurt. It is impossible to predict injuries, so to count on one is ill advised... The chances are that that player will not start any more than 2 games, since if there is an injury to your player you will likely pick up a player... only exception is if i own the #1 back and his backup is available and i will not be able to get him later... For example, if i drafted Ridley, and i had the option of vereen or TE, i would pick vereen...

i guess the thread still lives
because ...yes you are right in that we can't predict injuries however we can heed to the odds which dictate the player who carries the ball the most gets hits the most and thus i still say a third Rb is way more valuable then drafting any Rudolph type TE in the 7th round give me the Vereen type Rb first every time...

 

[Barilko]

5his is just plain crazy talk..and there aint no way around it

 

[JDM]

5his is just plain crazy talk..and there aint no way around it

What Ridley does and what vereen does don't overlap much. Blount is already going to get a lot of touches and they would probably trickle down to bolden before having much impact on vereen. Vereen and Washington have one role and the other three have a different role.

 

[TREFF]

Blount is getting touches becuase one, they arent risking Ridley and Vareen to 8njury in preseason, and two, the Pats are trying to decide if they even want him on the team at. IF he makes the team, IF,, he's no threat whatsoever to either's value.
Basically saying the same thing as Felix Jones getting more carries than McCoy and Brown in week 1 preseason means he's a threat to them.

 

[TREFF]

And just becuase Vareen's current role is defined as a change of pace/passing down back, does not mean he cannot do what Ridley does. He dead just fine on the same running plays as Ridley had. He's the clear, hands down #2..and I'm not so sure that Ridley would have to get injured before Vareen becomes #1. Granted, that's a bit of a longshot..but I woyldn't be shocked at all