Believe it or not, San Fran is still in the drivers seat for the division

[Wolverine830872]

NFL tiebreaking procedures - NFL - ESPN

Assuming the 49ers win the rest of their games, and we win the rest of ours, with the exception of the game in San Fran, then they would win the division again based on the 5th tiebreaker, strength of victory, which is the winning percentage of all the team records that you beat. Because we would both lose one game to each other, and one to Indy, that would be exactly the same. The only 2 games that are different? We play NYG and MIN, when the 49ers play WAS and GB.

In essence, whoever has the better combined record, NYG/MIN and WAS/GB, would then get home field advantage. Considering that NYG, MIN, and WAS are all basically equally crappy, GB tips the scales in San Fran's favor.

I know its way too early to think about this stuff but its a Wednesday and I'm bored

 

[STBR 27]

When the Hawks beat NO later in the year, the SOV will significantly increase and probably be higher than SF. Plus, there is no way SF wins out and we should beat them at Candlestick anyway.

 

[Wolverine830872]

When the Hawks beat NO later in the year, the SOV will significantly increase and probably be higher than SF. Plus, there is no way SF wins out and we should beat them at Candlestick anyway.

I agree completely. But when San Fran plays and beats NO as well, it completely negates everything

 

[SeattleOspreys]

I agree completely. But when San Fran plays and beats NO as well, it completely negates everything

I had this laid out in a post back on week 2. Here's the update.

In what I would call the worst case scenario over
the next 7 weeks is this.

9ers go 7-0
Hawks go 5-2.

Headed into the game at SF, they are 10-2
While the Hawks are 9-3. We then have to just
beat them for the likely division.

We finish @ NYG and host zona and STL.

In conclusion, the 9ers could go 10-1 with their
only loss to us and we win the division with
2 losses in the next 7.

We beat them in SF and I dont see how we don't
win the West, with 9ers winning every other
game the rest of the season.

Go Hawks!

 

[Wolverine830872]

even if we went 7-0, San Fran would still be in the drivers seat. They have to lose another game

 

[Wolverine830872]

I suppose some of this is moot though as we still control our destiny if we run the table as well. But that game in San Fran is HUGE, as is the N.O. game the Monday before.

 

[Uhsplit]

No disrespect towards the OP, but we are in the drivers seat and totally control our destiny regarding HFA.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

I suppose some of this is moot though as we still control our destiny if we run the table as well. But that game in San Fran is HUGE, as is the N.O. game the Monday before.

If we pick up another game on SF by
week 13, then it won't be huge.

If we lose 2 games to them by week 13, it's
huge.

We beat them in SF, then it's moot as the
division is ours even if 9ers win their
other 10 remaining games.

13-3 vs 13-3 with Hawks owning tiebreaker. Easy chit.

You dig?

 

[gohusk]

The team that's able to win all the games they should is going to come out on top. And we got NO at home while SF has to handle them in the dome which is a HUGE difference. I'd put either of us as an underdog playing in NO this year because they're so good on that turf and you basically have to outscore them in a shootout. The Atlanta game is going to be tough but I'd rather travel there than NO.

 

[yossarian]

Given the way the season is turning out, your road games against the Giants and Falcons don't look as tough as our road games against the Saints and the Redskins.

 

[octagondd]

The odds are higher that SF loses to AZ this week and the Hawks win then for the original scenario to play out. SF going 11-0 is probably like a 2% proposition and then add the Hawks going 10-1 and you are talking about less than 1% of it happening.

Right now the Hawks odds of winning the #1 seed in the NFC is 55% based on Football Outsiders crazy stat head stuff. I know it doesn't really mean much, but thought I would throw it out there. N.O. is the closest competitor and are listed at 26%. Right now, they say we have about the same chance of falling and getting a wild card spot as the Niners do of winning the division. Silly, but fun numbers to look at.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

So much football to be played... All I care about is beating the Titans... :]

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Given the way the season is turning out, your road games against the Giants and Falcons don't look as tough as our road games against the Saints and the Redskins.

You got the edge in facing Indy and Houston at home.

While we faced those 2 teams on the road with early starts.

That was a shot at picking up a game on us, but you faltered.