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BamaDude
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Even before the injuries started piling up, I had a gnawing feeling that Alabama's unprecedented 5-year playoff run might be coming to a close this season. The reasons are listed below.
1. Alabama has had to replace several experienced members of its defense for multiple seasons in a row, due to both graduating seniors and early NFL departees. I know the Tide has weathered this phenomena for quite a while, but it really showed last year when the defensive points per game ballooned from 11.9 to 18.1. They lost even more experienced players following the 2018 season.
2. Assistant coaching turnovers. This is another area where the Tide has been efficient in rolling along; but after 13 departures in two years, the lack of continuity is bound to start showing an effect. The offensive staff last year helped the team improve from 37.1 points and 444 yards per game to 45.6 points and 522 ypg. All the major coaching contributors are gone from that staff, and I don't believe that Steve Sarkisian's crew can match that output.
3. Relative health & readiness of returning personnel. It's good to have Tua Tagovailoa back at QB, but we don't know yet if he is fully recovered - both physically and mentally - from the injuries he sustained last year. Will he be as mobile as he once was, and be able to plant his foot and make the kinds of throws he has in the past? Will pain or fear of pain be a factor in his performance? Will the absence of Jalen Hurts to push him to excel at the QB position be a detrimental factor?
4. Lack of depth at many key positions. We had two very capable quarterbacks last year. This time there is no proven back-up should Tua get hurt. Mack Jones played mostly in mop-up situations & only completed 38.5% of the 13 passes he attempted. Taulia Tagovailoa & Paul Tyson are both freshmen. Are any of those guys ready to step forward if needed?
Running back is another area with a lack of depth. We had three guys last year that could have started at most other SEC schools, plus a 4th guy that progressed quite a bit as the season wore on. Two of the top three are in the NFL now, and the other two are suspended for the first half of the season opener. There's no proven depth behind them.
The offensive line is in rebuilding mode, and the defensive line and linebacking corps are thin on overall experience. At least two defensive starters may miss the entire season due to injuries, with two freshmen starting in their place.
The best news is that practically our entire receiving corps is back. We also have an experienced secondary, although they gave up a lot of big plays during the last few games of the season last year.
5. Special teams continues to be a weak point, but may be getting a shot in the arm if true freshman Will Reichard lives up to his performance from his kicking days in high school. Maybe Skyler DeLong can improve on his 34.4 yards per punt average. Kick coverage is usually pretty tight, and there are break-away threats in the return game.
6. Injuries. There seems to be more players than usual on the moderate-to-severely injured list heading into this weekend's opener. At least two players - maybe more - are thought to be lost for the season. Several more could miss from one to four games, and a few others are in the may play if they don't get re-injured category. Most of these are lower leg injuries. Two are bad knee injuries. Makes me wonder if there is something amiss with the training staff?
With the internal stuff out of the way, we now turn to the opponents. Teams most likely to have a chance at beating the Crimson Tide are Auburn on the road on Nov. 30th, and Georgia in a potential SEC Championship Game rematch a week later. With a few bad breaks, the Tide could also be in for a hard time at Texas A&M on Oct. 12th or at home against LSU on Nov. 9th.
If the combination of lack of depth and experience doesn't derail the Tide somewhere during the season, then they may well be on their way to a sixth straight playoff appearance. But, even if they don't get there this year, I expect them to be back in 2020.
1. Alabama has had to replace several experienced members of its defense for multiple seasons in a row, due to both graduating seniors and early NFL departees. I know the Tide has weathered this phenomena for quite a while, but it really showed last year when the defensive points per game ballooned from 11.9 to 18.1. They lost even more experienced players following the 2018 season.
2. Assistant coaching turnovers. This is another area where the Tide has been efficient in rolling along; but after 13 departures in two years, the lack of continuity is bound to start showing an effect. The offensive staff last year helped the team improve from 37.1 points and 444 yards per game to 45.6 points and 522 ypg. All the major coaching contributors are gone from that staff, and I don't believe that Steve Sarkisian's crew can match that output.
3. Relative health & readiness of returning personnel. It's good to have Tua Tagovailoa back at QB, but we don't know yet if he is fully recovered - both physically and mentally - from the injuries he sustained last year. Will he be as mobile as he once was, and be able to plant his foot and make the kinds of throws he has in the past? Will pain or fear of pain be a factor in his performance? Will the absence of Jalen Hurts to push him to excel at the QB position be a detrimental factor?
4. Lack of depth at many key positions. We had two very capable quarterbacks last year. This time there is no proven back-up should Tua get hurt. Mack Jones played mostly in mop-up situations & only completed 38.5% of the 13 passes he attempted. Taulia Tagovailoa & Paul Tyson are both freshmen. Are any of those guys ready to step forward if needed?
Running back is another area with a lack of depth. We had three guys last year that could have started at most other SEC schools, plus a 4th guy that progressed quite a bit as the season wore on. Two of the top three are in the NFL now, and the other two are suspended for the first half of the season opener. There's no proven depth behind them.
The offensive line is in rebuilding mode, and the defensive line and linebacking corps are thin on overall experience. At least two defensive starters may miss the entire season due to injuries, with two freshmen starting in their place.
The best news is that practically our entire receiving corps is back. We also have an experienced secondary, although they gave up a lot of big plays during the last few games of the season last year.
5. Special teams continues to be a weak point, but may be getting a shot in the arm if true freshman Will Reichard lives up to his performance from his kicking days in high school. Maybe Skyler DeLong can improve on his 34.4 yards per punt average. Kick coverage is usually pretty tight, and there are break-away threats in the return game.
6. Injuries. There seems to be more players than usual on the moderate-to-severely injured list heading into this weekend's opener. At least two players - maybe more - are thought to be lost for the season. Several more could miss from one to four games, and a few others are in the may play if they don't get re-injured category. Most of these are lower leg injuries. Two are bad knee injuries. Makes me wonder if there is something amiss with the training staff?
With the internal stuff out of the way, we now turn to the opponents. Teams most likely to have a chance at beating the Crimson Tide are Auburn on the road on Nov. 30th, and Georgia in a potential SEC Championship Game rematch a week later. With a few bad breaks, the Tide could also be in for a hard time at Texas A&M on Oct. 12th or at home against LSU on Nov. 9th.
If the combination of lack of depth and experience doesn't derail the Tide somewhere during the season, then they may well be on their way to a sixth straight playoff appearance. But, even if they don't get there this year, I expect them to be back in 2020.
