Attention Peyton Manning Owners

[tlance]

Manning has a high ankle sprain and his mobility will be even less than normal this week. Since the Bronco offensive line looked over-matched last week against a good, but not great Colts defense, Manning owners should be nervous. If Manning can get through today's game against a pretty good Redskin pass rush without further damage, owners may want to consider shopping the number 1 scorer in fantasy football.

The week 9 bye looks to be coming at a good time for the Broncos, but match-ups against the Chiefs in weeks 11 and 13 are very concerning. Manning and the Broncos are good enough to put a big number on the elite Chiefs' defense, but Manning is going to take a lot of hits in those contests. Given the lack of mobility and the 2 games against the best pass rush in football, there is a very real chance that Manning misses time in your fantasy playoffs.

This is not a suggestion to panic and deal him for the sake of making a deal, but based on some Peyton Manning trades I have seen lately, the return price is still astronomically high, as it should be. The return from a trade is potentially worth more to owners than holding Manning for the rest of season would be with this injury risk.

Only make a deal if you can get mid-first round value in exchange for Manning. Selling him short would be a mistake, but holding on without at least looking around your league to see if any deals might make sense could be a season killer too.

Remember, the Broncos are interested in 1 thing this season. They are playing for a Super Bowl. They could care less about your fantasy championship. If Peyton gets dinged against the Chiefs, the Broncos will have every reason to sit their QB. While home field advantage and a first round bye are important, the Broncos aren't going anywhere without a healthy Manning and they know it.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I'm more than a little biased, since I'm a Broncos fan, but I think that anyone looking to deal Manning would be crazy. In fact, I might just copy the OP, send it to the guy in my fantasy league who owns PMFM, and offer a trade.

 

[tlance]

I'm more than a little biased, since I'm a Broncos fan, but I think that anyone looking to deal Manning would be crazy. In fact, I might just copy the OP, send it to the guy in my fantasy league who owns PMFM, and offer a trade.

Good luck with that.

The thing about fantasy sports is that players are like stocks. The very moment where you would not even think about trading a player away is usually the exact time where you should.

Sell high, buy low.

 

[TREFF]

I'm more than a little biased, since I'm a Broncos fan, but I think that anyone looking to deal Manning would be crazy. In fact, I might just copy the OP, send it to the guy in my fantasy league who owns PMFM, and offer a trade.

Oddly I agree with the both of ya!
I do think eventually you'll want a different QB, like week 15& 16..especially 17 if you're league guess that far. . but I also wouldn't want to lose Peyton up until that point, unless he hits some snow in his two more home games or at KC.

BUT, if your league has a trade deadline, it is something worth taking a very serious look at.

 

[tlance]

And to be clear Treff, I am talking about a deal like:

LeSean McCoy straight up, or

Dez Bryant and Cam Newton if you need a WR.

I would certainly hold the other guy over the coals to get it done.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Good luck with that.

The thing about fantasy sports is that players are like stocks. The very moment where you would not even think about trading a player away is usually the exact time where you should.

Sell high, buy low.

Easier said than done, of course, since both the upper and lower limits of a player's value are uncertain when transactions take place. Personally, I expect PMFM to maintain high value going forward. In fact, I think he'll have monster game today, followed by the Broncos regrouping/healing up a bit over their bye next week and then making a strong push down the stretch. If that happens, then I expect PMFM will maintain high fantasy value. We shall see.

 

[TDs3nOut]

And to be clear Treff, I am talking about a deal like:

LeSean McCoy straight up, or

Dez Bryant and Cam Newton if you need a WR.

I would certainly hold the other guy over the coals to get it done.

Maybe I misunderstood the OP. Both of those sound like reasonable deals. I thought that you were proposing that Manning's value is about to drop significantly.

 

[JDM]

He's certainly available in my league here, but that's the only one I own him in. I more or less agree with your assessment of his value but expect him to be at a high level until the division is locked up. If the chiefs split that could easily mean they need a win week 16, or if the chiefs play a little better than I expect, even week 17.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

If I was a Peyton Manning owner I'd be praying for the Chiefs to keep winning. As long as there is a divisional battle going on I say Manning plays till the end but to TREFFs point he will sit as soon as it's over.....that said yeah, for a top 3 RB or WR I'd probably consider dealing him.

 

[tlance]

Maybe I misunderstood the OP. Both of those sound like reasonable deals. I thought that you were proposing that Manning's value is about to drop significantly.[/QUOTE

Since he is on pace to have the best QB statistical season of all time, his value only has 1 place to go and it isn't up.

He could continue to produce at the same level and carry owners to a title, but there is a reason that he was not the first QB drafted back in August and that was not due to his ability or the talent around him.

Peyton carries more injury risk than other pocket QBs because of his age and the past neck issues. The Chiefs aren't likely to help that. The average fantasy owner isn't thinking about the risk right now. They see the eye-popping numbers and they want in.

 

[TDs3nOut]

He put up 31 fantasy points today in the espn league that I play in. Decide for yourself whether you have a profitable opportunity to sell him while his value is higher than it will be in the future. My expectation is that PMFM's value stays high.

 

[The Foot]

tlance excellent post! I have Manning in my Keeper league and I was thinking the same thing this past week. i am thankful he had another big scoring game this week as it should make it even easier to move him if I find the right the deal. Anyone feel he may walk away this year for any reason. ie maybe if he wins the superbowl or justs has had enough or does anyone think I could get 1 or 2 more years out of him?

 

[TDs3nOut]

tlance excellent post! I have Manning in my Keeper league and I was thinking the same thing this past week. i am thankful he had another big scoring game this week as it should make it even easier to move him if I find the right the deal. Anyone feel he may walk away this year for any reason. ie maybe if he wins the superbowl or justs has had enough or does anyone think I could get 1 or 2 more years out of him?

My guess is that only injury, not winning another SB, would lead him to retiring after this season.

 

[wilwhite]

Anyone feel he may walk away this year for any reason.

Nope. Maybe after next year if he wins SBs both years. (FYI, his contract is now guaranteed through 2014.) But I expect he'll play out his contract (through 2016) if healthy.

 

[Kramer840]

I just traded Manning this week (along with Decker and Fleener) for Shady and Welker. I did it because I had no RB's (my only decent/healthy guy was Rice, and he was on a bye), I have Rivers as my backup, and I know Manning has to slow down eventually, especially when it starts to get cold.

I probably should've waited until this week to trade him because I had to pick up Geno Smith for yesterday. Not pretty.

 

[tlance]

Still a good haul for you. I like that deal for sure.