At #5 the Lions select OL/CB/DE - breaking down the 3 options

[shoktart]

For all you Tavon Austin fans out there I apologize for not including WR as one of the options but I simply can't stomach the thought of the Lions using the #5 overall pick on a WR. If we trade down and pick up another 2nd round pick then I'm fine with taking Austin in the 1st round. As long as we can still draft 3 potential starters at need positions in the first 3 rounds I'm okay with the luxury pick of Austin. But only if we earn it by trading down.

However, for the purpose of this thread I am assuming we don't find a sucker to trade up with us and we are stuck with the #5 pick. At that spot in the draft we will have an important decision to make. Offensive line, cornerback or defensive end.

But we can narrow this down even more can't we? Let's be honest, there is really only one CB in play at #5 - Dee Milliner. And since Dion Jordan doesn't fit our scheme there is really only one DE in play at #5 - Ziggy Ansah.

Okay, so with the #5 pick it really comes down to Dee Milliner, Ziggy Ansah or an offensive lineman.

Let continue to keep it real and narrow this down even more. Joeckel & Fisher will both be gone by the time it gets to our pick. There is ZERO chance either will still be there. Trust me, it's wishful thinking if you believe Chip Kelly would actually pass on arguably the #1 talent in the draft if Eric Fisher were to fall in his lap at #4. Especially since the Eagles OL was a mess last year. A bright head coach like Kelly isn't stupid enough to pass on a franchise LT in his first season. Get real!!! And we aren't trading up. So cross Joeckel & Fisher off the list.

Okay, so with the #5 pick it really comes down to these 5 players and ONLY these 5 players:

1. Dee Milliner
2. Ziggy Ansah
3. Lane Johnson
4. Chance Warmack
5. Jonathan Cooper

If either Dion Jordan or Sharrif Floyd were to fall out of the Top 4 there is a possibility that 1 or 2 of these players will be gone by the time we pick. I find this doubtful, but who knows? For all we know Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson & Milliner could be the TOP 4 picks and that would leave us with only Ansah, Warmack & Cooper to choose from. However, if this were to happen it would put us in great position to trade down because Jordan & Floyd are top commodities that some team would likely be willing to trade up to get.

However, for the sake of this thread let's say that the Top 4 are as predicted....Joeckel, Jordan, Floyd, Fisher.

And let's say we can't trade down.

Who do we take? Well, let's break it down by different criteria and grade the results.

SAFEST?

1. Chance Warmack
1. Jonathan Cooper
3. Dee Milliner
4. Lane Johnson
5. Ziggy Ansah

UPSIDE?

1. Ziggy Ansah
2. Lane Johnson
3. Dee Milliner
5. Chance Warmack
5. Jonathan Cooper

IMMEDIATE IMPACT?

1. Chance Warmack
1. Jonathan Cooper
3. Dee Milliner
4. Lane Johnson
5. Ziggy Ansah

IMPORTANCE OF POSITION?

1. Ziggy Ansah
2. Lane Johnson
3. Dee Milliner
5. Chance Warmack
5. Jonathan Cooper

BIGGEST NEED?

1. Ziggy Ansah
2. Dee Milliner
3. Lane Johnson
5. Chance Warmack
5. Jonathan Cooper

So, what are the results?

1. Ziggy Ansah - 13
2. Dee Milliner - 14
3 .Lane Johnson - 14
4. Chance Warmack - 17
4. Jonathan Cooper - 17

Based on my criteria, this would be the pecking order with Ziggy Ansah the pick!!

However, this is all subjective. I am placing slightly more value on positional importance and upside over playing it safe. Mayhew might have a different priority.

Clearly, if the priority is to play it safe and ensure an immediate positive impact on the team we should go with one of the two guards - Warmack or Cooper.

If the priority is to solidify our secondary and select someone that is both moderately safe (injury concerns aside) and with a moderately high upside - Dee Milliner should be the pick.

If the priority is to address our biggest need, which also happens to be the most important position on the field other than QB (look at recent Superbowl winners, a pass rushing DE is more important in the NFL today than an elite LT or CB. It's true!!) - Ziggy Ansah should be the pick.

However, if the priority is to salvage our first round pick from last year and upgrade 2 positions on our OL at the same time - Lane Johnson should be the pick.

I know it's risky. But for me, the risk is worth the reward. Ziggy Ansah might be raw, but he has elite potential as a DE and has the highest ceiling of ANY player in the entire draft. We won't EVER win a championship without upgrading our pass rush. I would be okay with any of the 5 options because there are benefits to all of them. But Ansah would make me most excited.

 

[jalopy]

1. Ziggy Ansah - 13------ Biggest bust potential of the group w/o huge upside. Best case scenario is he becomes an elite pass rusher but below average against the run.
2. Dee Milliner - 14------- I just don't see Milliner as grading out this high and CB isn't that high of a priority for the Lions
3 .Lane Johnson - 14----- Seems like an adequate tackle but not at #5
4. Chance Warmack - 17- Best G in the draftand with the new rookie salary structure, might be the best option available
4. Jonathan Cooper - 17-- Not at #5

 

[black_magic]

Jalopy, then who do we take lmao

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Jalopy, then who do we take lmao

The Lions are simply going to pass on taking a 1st round pick this year.

 

[black_magic]

The Lions are simply going to pass on taking a 1st round pick this year.

im fine with that. Anything but lane johnson

 

[shoktart]

Seems like jalopy is advocating for Chance Warmack. However, like many of us he is probably hoping Fisher slips to us.

I would be perfectly fine with Chance Warmack as the pick. It's not sexy, but it's extremely solid. He may not play a position of greatest need on the team, but it's also important to keep in mind that we NEED to not whiff on this draft pick.

The only thing that would make me nervous about drafting Warmack is whether Riley Reiff is capable of being our LT. At least we would find out though.

I know Reggie Bush is hoping we draft Warmack!

 

[black_magic]

Just a rumor, but im wondering what you would do shok. Would you trade your 3rd and swap 1st rounders with the raiders to get, as you put him arguably the #1 talent in the draft and franchise LT?

So Fisher and no 3rd rd pick, or someone like ansah with a 3rd rd pick

 

[shoktart]

Just a rumor, but im wondering what you would do shok. Would you trade your 3rd and swap 1st rounders with the raiders to get, as you put him arguably the #1 talent in the draft and franchise LT?

So Fisher and no 3rd rd pick, or someone like ansah with a 3rd rd pick

Interesting.

If there is any truth to this rumor it tells me a couple things loud and clear.

1. The Lions have zero confidence in Riley Reiff as our LT.

2. The Lions aren't super high on Lane Johnson.

The problem is, my gut tells me that they are right to think both of those things. I also don't trust Reiff to anchor the most important side of the offensive line. I also don't trust Lane Johnson to be a franchise LT.

On one hand this really sucks. It sucks that the Lions have put themselves in a position to be so desperate to find a LT. It sucks that we have wasted so many recent high draft picks (Best, Young, Reiff, Broyles) causing us to have several holes on the roster. It sucks that in order to feel confident about protecting Stafford we might need to package multiple drafts picks in order to get the guy we need.

On the other hand, at least the Lions are recognizing a big problem and are pro-active in finding a solution.

Part of me was hoping that maybe all the reports about Reiff being better suited to play RG was a smoke screen throwing other teams off and in actuality the Lions feel good about their LT situation.

But if this rumor is true, obviously they don't. And if they don't, then I agree we need to do something about it.

Even though our defense is awful. Even though we DESPERATELY need to find a pass-rushing DE, a legitimate starting CB, and another OLB. Even though we don't have the luxury of packaging draft picks to move up. Even though this would most likely guarantee another year of having a horrendous defense. Even though ALL of these things might be true.........

......if the Lions have zero confidence in Riley Reiff as our LT & if the Lions don't consider any other LT's in this draft after Joeckel & Fisher to be potential franchise LT's.......

.......then we have to make this trade.

Unfortunately.

It sucks.

But protecting Stafford needs to be the priority. We would still be able to draft a potential defensive starter in the 2nd round. But the rest of our defense would just have to wait another year.

At least our OL should be solid with LT - Fisher, LG - Sims, C - Raiola/Nagy/Austin, RG - Reiff, RT - Hilliard/Fox

 

[black_magic]

Interesting.

If there is any truth to this rumor it tells me a couple things loud and clear.

1. The Lions have zero confidence in Riley Reiff as our LT.

2. The Lions aren't super high on Lane Johnson.


Part of me was hoping that maybe all the reports about Reiff being better suited to play RG was a smoke screen throwing other teams off and in actuality the Lions feel good about their LT situation.

From day 1, the only people that have said that reiff was best suited to play tackle were the lions. From day 1, all the analysts have stated that reiff would have trouble playing tackle in the NFL, and would be better suited to play guard. IMO if the lions take fisher, they are killing 2 birds with 1 stone, drafting an elite tackle, and at the same time having a better RG than they currently have.

Even though our defense is awful. Even though we DESPERATELY need to find a pass-rushing DE, a legitimate starting CB, and another OLB.

there alot of talent at DE in the later rounds. Especially the 2nd. Remember, avril was a 3rd rounder. And I don't think our CB corps is all that bad. The lions are really high on all 3 cb's from last yr (greenwood, green, and bentley) and dont forget Ron Bartell, who was a starter in oakland until he broke his shoulder.

All in all, if theres any way that oakland will take a 5th instead of a 3rd, id do it in a heartbeat. Too bad we can't trade compensatory picks, because id trade our 4th.

 

[Mebert]

I think your numbers change a lot for Warmack if you stop assuming that he and cooper are the same player. He scores as a 14 that way.

 

[black_magic]

Detroitlions.com Blog | Why guard shouldn?t be excluded from the first-round conversation for Lions

 

[jalopy]

Jalopy, then who do we take lmao

I would go with the safest pick, Chance Warmack, unless the Lions can trade down. That is if Fisher/Joeckel are unavailable.
As for the Raiders story, it makes no sense for the Lions to trade up unless Fisher is available.

 

[jayfan]

Just a rumor, but im wondering what you would do shok. Would you trade your 3rd and swap 1st rounders with the raiders to get, as you put him arguably the #1 talent in the draft and franchise LT?

So Fisher and no 3rd rd pick, or someone like ansah with a 3rd rd pick

Would be a terrible, irresponsible decision. But it wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[jalopy]

Maybe they could trade the #5 and Schwartz for the #3. Two birds, one stone.

 

[black_magic]

As for the Raiders story, it makes no sense for the Lions to trade up unless Fisher is available.

I think it would happen on draft day, only if fisher was available at #3

 

[jayfan]

I presume it would be for Fisher. Can't do it. Can't overpay for something unless you can afford it, and this team can't afford it. Too many holes, and too many good players available to help fill one of them in the third round.

 

[black_magic]

oh lawwrd the rumors!!! Cant wait till tomorrow

also, many of you may be thinking wtf i do all day long if all i do is post this crap on these boards. The question is absolutely nothing. I should be studying for final exams, but I am not.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

the rumors will be flying all the way up to the draft as teams try put out rumors to improve their standing in the 1st round in case someone wants to trade up, or to get teams to think they don't have to trade up to get a certain player.

i REALLY hope the Lions don't make the mistake of trading up. that is the last thing they need to do in a draft where impact players will still be on the board in the 3rd round. We need all the picks we can get.

 

[K.J.Ester]

From day 1, the only people that have said that reiff was best suited to play tackle were the lions. From day 1, all the analysts have stated that reiff would have trouble playing tackle in the NFL, and would be better suited to play guard.

Strange. Before this off-season, I dont ever remember anyone saying anything like that. In fact, I remember exactly the opposite. I was extremely upset with the Reiff pick and I complained about it a lot because I felt they needed the CB available far more. Several people argued it was the right pick because Reiff was slated as a top-10 player and we got lucky he fell to us. People said he was a top LT and would be our LT for the next ten years. THose few who agreed with me did so for the same reasons. Because they ignored what we needed badly and took a player that wasnt going to play much the first year with Backus still on the team. Not once did anyone say that he wasnt supposed to be a good LT.

In the week before the draft, new stories will keep surfacing saying this and that. Players who were third round talents will be promoted as first round picks. Players will fall because of stories being written that reveals new information about that. Most of anything new that comes out now is nothing more than smoke.

I see people saying that CB isnt an important need. That the Lions are really high on the guys they drafted last year. I laugh at that! What did any of the CBs from last years draft do to give us ANY reason to believe they can be good starters? Nothing! If the Lions had any belief in any one of them when they drafted them, they wouldnt have drafted three of them. The fact the Lions drafted three CBs last year screams that they were only rolling the dice on a few CBs in hopes they find the hidden gem. But none of them looked good last year at all, so I cant believe the Lions would be high on any of them much less all of them today. Especially when Lions management said att he beginning of the off-season that they want to get bigger and faster at CB.

Right now the Lions have three of the four secondary players in place. Delmas and Quinn at Safety and Houston at CB. After that they dont have one solid player opposite Houston. Three of the four at D-Line would be great. Not so for secondary. One bad player and WRs are taking passes for 6 points. One player not getting his job done and the D-line never gets to the QB before he completes a pass. If Suh and Fairley break through as often as they did last year, the D-line will be good. But they need the secondary to be a lot better than last year if they want to be real successful!

 

[black_magic]

If Suh and Fairley break through as often as they did last year, the D-line will be good. But they need the secondary to be a lot better than last year if they want to be real successful!